Hong Kong Intelligence Report #100 當前香港政治的總體趨勢：全面開放內地金融市場的陽謀
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
🔻 IMPORTANT 【重要】
This article covers major social issues in Hong Kong from February 2 to February 15, 2023. It covers issues such as the timetable for Article 23 legislation; the relaxation of restrictions on meetings with bureaucrats and politicians by the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong; the short-term lease for land purchases covering the National Security Act; recent developments in epidemic prevention policies and customs clearance; the political machinations of Standard Chartered Bank; the suspension of New World Properties' cable television subscriptions; the request by the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce to withdraw 'chilly' anti-speculation tax; the threat of negative equity; and the controversy over Light Public Housing. All issues that do not have a decisive effect on the livelihood of Hong Kong society are disregarded.
▪️ 「國安」議題： 在本港，所謂國安定義僅指分裂主義。換言之，其在運作上唯限於維護憲政體制框架（一國兩制本身就是主權框架）。其中並不涵蓋社會民生議題，如疫情，土地房屋問題或貧富差距或勞資階級矛盾等嚴峻民怨來源（敵對性矛盾）。然而，解決社會民生問題的正確過程才叫做社會改革或社會/公益運動或社會進步。真正的國安在於徹底解決各種敵對性矛盾上。假設我們把2021年1月7日（大拘捕第2日）視為反修例風波的結束日，並把2023年2月6日視為中港疫情結束日（不設每日人數限制、有條件取消核酸檢測要求），那就得出結論說「經歷兩大災難和所謂‘改革’以及名為‘復常’的一系列為資本瘋狂撤除防疫措施的‘防疫政策’後，本港社會民生問題連一個也沒有得到什麼解決，反而資本藉由進一步鞏固和‘優化’了政治壟斷，結局只會變本加厲」。 得以一句「原地踏步」概括。
The "national security" issue: In Hong Kong, the so-called national security definition refers only to separatism. In other words, it is limited in its operation to upholding the constitutional framework (one country, two systems is itself a sovereign framework). It does not cover social and livelihood issues such as epidemics, land and housing issues, or serious sources of public discontent (hostile conflicts) such as the wealth gap or labor class conflicts. However, the correct process of solving social and livelihood issues is called social reform or social/public welfare movement or social progress. The real national security lies in the complete resolution of all kinds of hostile conflicts. Suppose we consider January 7, 2021 (the second day of the mass arrest) as the end of the anti-extradition bill amendment controversy and February 6, 2023 as the end of the Hong Kong-China epidemic (no daily limit on the number of people on borders clearance and conditional abolition of the requirement for nucleic acid testing), then we conclude that "after the two catastrophes and the so-called 'reforms' and for the crazy removal of anti-epidemic measures called 'resumption of normalcy' by capital, not even a single problem of the people's livelihood in Hong Kong has been solved, but capital has further consolidated and 'optimized' the political monopoly, capital has only intensified the situation". This is summed up by the phrase "standing still".
Regarding the Article 23 legislation, although again the clown Lo Man Tuen(NACA is just an NGO), who represents Hong Kong's capital and always pretends the 'voice of the central government', published an article in the traditional opposition media Ming Pao, but earlier John Lee Ka-chiu in the morning of Tuesday before the regular pre-Executive Council press conference expressed "hope that as soon as possible it can be completed in this year to, if not all hope to complete next year". If not this year, then the next year. And so on. This is not a timetable either. An ambiguous statement is tantamount to procrastination. The point is that delaying Article 23 legislation is anti-Article 23 legislation. However, since the successful anti-ZERO-COVID campaign (which was actually a massive political campaign for forced changes in state policy since the amendment fiasco; mainly by health bureaucrats, epidemic experts, and the media, with protesters as auxiliaries), the main actors are no longer the politically sacrificed protesters, but bureaucrats, government advisors, the media, and other more direct agents of internal and external capital power. Even they are part of the official patriotic camp and establishment. Therefore, the unnecessary so-called separatist decorations (which are tantamount to suicide) are rightly discarded and disregarded here. In the case of foreign powers, as in the case of internal powers, they have been infiltrated mainly through the diplomatic status and capital of locally operating institutions in Hong Kong. Both internal and external forces are highly politically integrated in the Chamber of Commerce. Moreover, it is capital that is politically served by the government. Capital is the primary political core and purpose. If it is reasonable and proper, there is no warfare purpose other than capital itself. If it is reasonable to do anything, serving capital is always the ultimate goal. The point is that capital (business) is not part of the above overly narrow national security definition, so it was known a priori that even Article 23 legislation could not stop the collusion between government and business similar to the anti-zero campaign (a new form of peaceful evolution; they succeeded because they peacefully evolved out of the anti-epidemic policy; they did not play separatism at all, nor did they intend to overthrow the regime at this time, just the anti-epidemic policy).
Similarly, the relaxation of restrictions on meetings with Hong Kong government bureaucrats and politicians at the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong, which was only recently reported in the media (February 14, 2023), has no impact on actual operations. As always, the pattern of business people communicating information or providing funding through third parties unaffiliated with any U.S. state organization has no impact. Moreover, electronic means are more convenient in the Internet age. What is most troubling is that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the media have been hiding this information since it went into effect in November 2022, and it is only recently that it is being exposed to the public. This kind of information control is a bigger problem. The change from requiring the approval of the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to require five days' notice for U.S. consulates to meet with HK government bureaucrats and politicians in Hong Kong does not make a decisive difference, because even without such a requirement, access to consulates is generally still monitored by both sides. The December 30 Foreign Ministerial appointment (former Ambassador to US, Qin Gang was appointed) and this November gesture are both political signals from the Chinese Communist Party that it expects to break the ice between the U.S. and China.
▪️土地房屋議題：同美國駐港領事館會見港府官僚和政客時的限制放寬一事一樣，土地招標文件把國安法條款加入一事也是今日才正面曝光的。有趣的是，這也是從2022年11月開始的。當時看到的是，2022年11月30日報導的香港外國記者會（The Foreign Correspondents' Club Hong Kong, FCC）續約文件把國安法條款加入一事 。地政總署從2022年11月4日開始招標的啟德2A區4、5B及10號地盤起至今（有趣的是，該地後來陷入了簡約公屋風波），地契短期租約增添國安法條款。但如上所述，對地產霸權（地產黨）而言，「地產業界亦支持做法，不認為對賣地有影響」（李家超）。的確，本港首富李嘉誠的長江集團中標了該土地（地政總署（十二月二十一日）公布，一幅位於九龍啟德第2A區4號地盤、5（B）號地盤及10號地盤的新九龍內地段第6649號的用地，以八十七億三百萬元批予鋒城投資有限公司（母公司：長江實業集團有限公司），批租期為五十年）。這足以證明了所謂國安法條款根本不是什麼阻礙。地契租約增多國安法條款也本來不會成為逃犯條例修訂案的炒作程度。反而，港府和香港媒體過去幾個月都一直隱瞞有關消息一事才是個真問題所在。足認至少從2022年9月26日張竹君‘與病毒共存’論掀起的積極撤除防疫措施和隱瞞疫情的‘復常’政宣嚴重損害了取得資訊的自由度。腐爛的隱瞞體質，瞞報成為新常態了。港府，不僅隱瞞了大部分疫情實況，也從11月以來長期隱瞞了美國駐港領事館會見港府官僚和政客時的限制放寬一事以及地契租約增多國安法條款一事。隱瞞是官僚主義的典型特徵之一。有趣的是，李家超並沒有正面回應港府在放寬會面限制後與美國駐港領事館人員有否會面。
Land and housing issues: Like the relaxation of restrictions in the U.S. Consulate's meeting with Hong Kong government bureaucrats and politicians, the inclusion of the National Security Act clause in the land tender documents was revealed today. Interestingly, this also started in November 2022. At that time, it was partially reported on November 30, 2022 that the Foreign Correspondents' Club Hong Kong (FCC) had included the NSA clause in its contract renewal documents. The Lands Department has added the NSA clause to the short term leases of the Kai Tak Area 2A sites 4, 5B and 10 since 4 November 2022, when the tender for the site began (interestingly, the site later became embroiled in the short term light public housing fiasco). But as mentioned above, for the real estate hegemony (the real estate party of Hong Kong), "the real estate industry also supports the practice and does not see any impact on land sales" (John Lee Ka-chiu). Indeed, Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group, won the bid (the Lands Department (Dec. 21) announced that a site at New Kowloon Inland Lot No. 6649 in Kai Tak Area 2A, Site 4, Site 5(B) and Site 10, Kowloon was granted to Citypoint Investment Limited (parent company: Cheung Kong (Holdings) Limited) for $8,703 million, with a 50-year lease term). This proves that the so-called National Security Law is not an obstacle at all. The addition of the National Security Law clause to the land lease would not have been the extent of the hype surrounding the amendment to the Fugitive Offenders Ordinance. Instead, the real problem is that the Hong Kong government and the Hong Kong media have been withholding information for the past few months. At least since September 26, 2022, when Chuang Shuk Kwan's 'living with the virus'（WITH-COVID） theory started the 'normalization' political propaganda of aggressive withdrawal of epidemic preventive measures and concealment of the epidemic, the freedom of access to information has been seriously compromised. With the rotten concealment system, concealment has become the new normal. The Hong Kong government has not only concealed most of the facts of the epidemic, it has also concealed for a long time since November the relaxation of restrictions on meetings with government bureaucrats and politicians by the U.S. Consulate in Hong Kong and the attachment of national security provisions in land leases. Concealment is one of the typical characteristics of bureaucracy. Interestingly, Lee did not respond positively to the question of whether the Hong Kong government met with the U.S. Consulate staff after the relaxation of the meeting restrictions.
In terms of withdrawal of 'chilly' anti-speculation tax, first through a number of Hong Kong media to push the narrative of withdrawal of 'chilly' anti-speculation tax, the centralized representative of Hong Kong internal and external capital Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce President LEUNG Siu Kee on February 2, 2023 to express his position advocated the withdrawal of 'chilly' anti-speculation tax. From the average property price of HKD 10 million in Hong Kong in 2019 to HKD 7.91 million in October 2022 hovering between the sky is still the high price. If the average property price itself is always reported, it will lose the narrative effect of inciting and brainwashing the public. This is why the average property price itself is not actively reported. Currently, the main speculators are still mainlanders. They are the ones who are trying to get their way in order to avoid as many restrictions as possible, including 'chilly' anti-speculation tax, when they buy a limited company that holds housing units. However, the withdrawal of 'chilly' anti-speculation tax will allow the Hong Kong government to lose public money sources and will certainly stimulate property speculation only as it aims to curb property speculation. Only speculators, including property developers, themselves want to withdraw the 'chilly' anti-speculation tax. It is clear that the Hong Kong General Chamber of Commerce, the centralized representative of capital inside and outside Hong Kong, is a real estate party serving capital and not serving the people.
One thing to add to the threat of negative equity theory is that the real estate party is confusing the general issue of debt with the so-called negative equity. Negative equity is when the price of a property is fixed at the time of purchase, but after the loan is taken out, the price of the property fluctuates daily, sometimes lower than the price at the time of purchase. This potential difference is called negative equity. Negative equity is not the same as a liability. The difference between the price determined at the time of purchase or resale and the balance of the loan (remember that the price was determined at the time of purchase or resale). However, the seller, the real estate agent knows that the price is only determined at the moment of purchase/sale (transaction), regardless of the resulting profit or loss. Debt is a different issue.
香港飯局 ｜簡約公屋對上樓真係有幫助？ 丨 清談節目 丨 TVB 丨 曾鈺成
➖ 有關簡約公屋，在2023年2月12日播出的TVB的節目《香港飯局》中，前地產界代表立法會議員石禮謙的發言頗為有趣。他也認同了選址不是問題，而簡約公屋本身有問題。此外，最重要的是他明確否定了自己也當年提倡的所謂「拆局，拆牆鬆綁加快建屋」之說。說這不是條例層面的問題，怎樣改，結果因官僚主義還是會慢（執行問題）。甚至，單看數字，李家超政府任期內建3萬個簡約公屋單位也明明根本無法解決大約10萬多戶不適切居所住戶以及24萬公屋申請者的問題。就九龍中議員楊永杰率領當地投機份子試圖發動示威集會的政治動作也反映了實際上民建聯的九龍社團聯會（Kowloon Federation of Associations）代表地產黨及其投機份子群組。這是本港政治服務資本的最近例子。重點是，無論在全港哪裡建公屋，周圍一定都會有典型的自私反對聲音，如影響樓價（不一定是所謂負資產）以及政府要為社區建基建（提高樓價的條件）等。社會要釐清民生和投機的區別。
On the subject of simple public housing, in the TVB program "Hong Kong Table For Three And More" broadcast on February 12, 2023, former Legislative Council Member Abraham Shek, a representative of the real estate sector, made a rather interesting speech. He also agreed that site selection of the light pubic housing is not the problem, but the issue of light public housing itself. Moreover, the most important thing is that he explicitly denied the so-called "demolition of bureaux, removal of walls and restrictions to speed up the construction of housing", which he also advocated back then. He said that this is not a problem at the level of the ordinance, no matter how to change it, the result will still be slow because of bureaucracy (operational implementation problems). Even if we just look at the figures, it is clear that the 30,000 light public housing units built under the John Lee Ka-chiu administration will not solve the problem of some 100,000 households and 240,000 applicants for public housing. The political maneuvering of the local speculators led by Kowloon Central Councilor Kitson Yang Wing-kit in an attempt to stage a rally also reflects the fact that the Kowloon Federation of Associations and its mother body the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB) represents the real estate party and its group of speculators behind them. This is the most recent example of politics in service of capital in Hong Kong. The point is that wherever public housing is built in Hong Kong, there must be the typical self-serving opposition around it, such as the impact on property prices (not necessarily the so-called negative equity) and ''the need for the government to build infrastructure for the community (a condition for higher property prices)''. The community must make a clear distinction between livelihood and speculation.
➖ 關於有線電視收費傳播停牌，它（有線寬頻）實際上是由構成永升的新世界地產主席鄭家純控制的公司Celestial Pioneer Limited控制的。可謂新世界地產，此一地產霸權寡頭之一的媒體。這也就是從俄烏戰事以來，2022年2月底-3月初應美國的要求而封鎖今日俄羅斯（CH131）在港節目頻道的媒體。2023年2月14日新世界地產的有線電視宣布：因不敵市場競爭，而將在 6 月 1 日起停播收費電視訊號，改為免費頻道。地產霸權控制媒體的力度也開始弱化了。競爭和壟斷是辯證矛盾。較有自由競爭的領域，壟斷勢力的競爭力非永升，如此顯弱。這算積極正面的消息。
Regarding the suspension of subscription broadcasting of Cable TV , it (i-CABLE) is actually controlled by Celestial Pioneer Limited, a company controlled by Henry Cheng Kar-shun, chairman of New World Properties, which constitutes Forever Top（Asia）Limited. It can be said that New World Properties, one of the hegemonic real estate oligarchs owned media. This is the same media that has blocked Russia Today (CH131) programming channels in Hong Kong at the request of the United States since the war between Russia and Ukraine in late February and early March 2022, and on February 14, 2023, New World Development's cable TV announced that it would stop broadcasting paid broadcasting TV signals and switch to free-to-air channels from June 1 because it was unable to compete with the market. The real estate hegemony's control over the media also began to weaken. Competition and monopoly are one of dialectical contradictions. In areas where there is more free competition, the competitiveness of monopolistic forces is not always rising, and is so weak. This is positive news.
▪️防疫和通關議題：其實仍有政治衝突持續。正式全面通關一開始，本港上層集團就要求撤除北上健康申報表（過關前須完成申請的黑色二維碼「黑碼」），而至今未果。以為只要以方便資本（‘商業’；‘民眾’）為由，什麼都可以得逞，只要覺得麻煩，叫撤就撤。這淪為中港政治的新常態。不過，中央政府尚未回應有關香港的單方面無理要求。通關人數也目前徘徊在三萬左右（2月5日內地人入境數為12,023；2月14日為34,859）。即使從春節結束的2月6日起撤掉核酸檢測要求，也沒有實現所謂爆發性的增長。參考出入境人次統計數字。 就疫情數據而言，操縱和瞞報之下連單日現有個案數據（active case）也不反映實況了，而只能參看總體累積的感染數據和死亡人數了。
The issue of epidemic prevention and customs clearance: in fact, there are still political conflicts going on. From the very beginning of the official full customs clearance, the upper echelons of Hong Kong demanded the removal of the Northbound Health Declaration Form (the black QR code that is required to complete the application prior to customs clearance), and so far this has not been done. They thought they could get away with anything on the grounds that it was convenient for capital ('business'; 'the public'), and that they could withdraw it whenever they felt it was troublesome. This has become the new normal in Hong Kong-China politics. However, the Central Government has not yet responded to the unilateral and unreasonable demands of Hong Kong. The number of people crossing the border is also currently hovering around 30,000 (12,023 on February 5 and 34,859 on February 14). Even though the nucleic acid testing requirement was lifted from February 6, the end of the Chinese New Year, the so-called explosive growth has not been achieved. For reference, the number of arrivals and departures. As far as the epidemic data is concerned, even the single-day-active case data does not reflect the actual situation, but rather the total cumulative number of infections and deaths.
Total number of new coronavirus pneumonia infections (cumulative): 2,881,389 (Feb. 14, 2023)
Total number of deaths (cumulative): 13,425
The Hong Kong government's approach of removing epidemic prevention measures while speculating in stocks is out of order. Even the Middle East PR 'fruitless' tour ("Middle East Tour" February 5-10, 2023) could not speculate on stocks because there were really no tangible results for the investors. Finally, on February 15, 2023, the Hang Seng Index fell out of the 21,000-point mark. From November 1, 2022, regardless of the epidemic, and crazy withdrawal of preventive measures, speculation up the trend is no longer. The manipulation of the exchange rate of the RMB against the HKD (if the exchange rate of the RMB against the HKD rises, the HSI rises) can hardly support it anymore.