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Hong Kong Intelligence Report #103 身為美國勢力的地產黨:美國政府國際貨幣基金組織IMF與地產霸權站在同一邊

Updated: May 9, 2023

Open-source intelligence (OSINT)

A real estate concept work on sale.
FILE PHOTO: Real estate sale © Envato

🔻 IMPORTANT 【重要】


1. 地產霸權乃「愛國愛港」的賣國賣港勢力:最近港媒普遍引述的‘全球化新自由主義耶穌會’美國政府的IMF的建議本屬於等待董事會批准的職員評估而已,但身為美國情報界‘轉播台’(參看港媒如何報導了最新美國國家情報總監的參議院軍事委員會上的報告,好像報導好萊塢明星的宣傳一樣)的一般港媒把它改裝成好像IMF董事會最終已批准出來的報告書來報導了。這一點本身就是欺騙香港市民的印象操縱。這只要不報導一些具體細節就可得逞的。這一舉措本身也就反過來證實了本港媒體正是由美國政府及其情報界左右的傳聲筒。


此外,該訪問團的職員評估其實是相當於美國對日本要求的年次結構改革方案/ 年次改革要望書 / Annual Reform Recommendations from the Government of the United States to the Government of Japan under the U.S.-Japan Regulatory Reform and Competition Policy Initiative(2001年至2009年,由鳩山由紀夫政權廢止,成了該短命革新政權的革命性愛國政績之一)或是俗稱Japan Handler之一,理查德·李·阿米蒂奇/Richard Lee Armitage(1945-)的阿米蒂奇報告(INSS Special Report "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership")。簡言之,要求港府和中央政府做出更多新自由主義‘改革’的‘指手畫腳’之舉。


顯然易見,市民需觀察的是,接受這個的,與此站在一起的就是毋庸置疑的所謂‘外部勢力’,真正的賣國賣港勢力。「愛國愛港」的賣國賣港勢力正是IMF撐腰的,本身資本私利與IMF的‘改革’要求相一致的地產黨。若是地產黨正是真愛國愛港的,那美國政府及其IMF則是真正的愛國愛港勢力。在政治上,完全揭穿了「愛國愛港」劇場的本色。本港政治的主旋律是,在中共親資本,讓香港既得利益集團放任自流之下,美國如何長遠地在「愛國愛港」劇場經營下,抵擋種種中共方面的影響和競爭,有時為地產黨製造出(又是手裏的)反派角色(如雨傘,旺角魚蛋,反修例風波,鬼打鬼的港獨分裂主義幽靈),而維持本身既得利益。然後,等到中共未來有一天瓦解時(至少,其速度將會是瓦解動態清零國策時的宇宙速度,最不幸的是,到時恐會‘沒有勞動者階級挺身而出阻擋中共的瓦解,中外兩岸資本都終於等到了那樣一天’),就可以順利繼續與地產黨合作掌握本港政治經濟命脈(一旦中共瓦解時,它們與回歸中國時一樣,換一換表面的政治口號和姿態之外,目前本港統治階級的政經體制在整體上大致不會變,只會持續,它們要的正是這個局面)。換言之,在深層,美國允許和高度包容所謂‘建制派’和港府的。那麼,所謂選舉改革,最近的區議會的‘改革’,‘完善’也是地產黨要的,伸張資本勢力的,全面控制本港政治的獎品。為此製造出來的反派角色是所謂反對派,把反對派當作代罪羔羊,同時將他們當作在本港統治階級和中央政府之間的政治交涉材料,如此才能逼中共只能靠地產黨的朋黨大聯盟,永遠只聽他們,永遠只參考地產黨智囊,如新世界和利豐(港美中心事件,通識課程幕後黑手)的團結香港基金和劉兆佳(其實是美國極右智庫CSIS的論客)之流的‘研究’,給地產黨政治壟斷地位來排除由地產黨和美國本來為此獎品製造出來的所謂反對派。


就總體而言,鄧小平開啟的政治路線的結論是僅為維持主權架構而如此未來無限期地保留中外反動勢力統治地位的道路。這同時將會持續是本渴望解放的被統治階級的長遠苦難和民生問題的永續。很會安排政治局面的本港地產黨‘幸運地’,有計劃地被中共固定下來了其統治階級地位。不流血地維持主權架構,那就得保留既有的既得利益集團。不過,只要維持既得利益集團及其剝削生態(Exploitation in ecology),本來可望解放的民眾就得不到解放,甚至隨著時間流逝,民生和民心自然而然地難免惡化和敵對。進一步,這個政治土壤淪為既得利益集團透過媒體和網紅矇騙和政治利用民眾的溫床。目前以賦予擴大的政治權力來強化‘完善’的只不過是前者(維持既得利益集團及其剝削生態)而已。中央以強化本港既得利益集團來排除同一個既得利益集團為此政治收穫而與所謂外部勢力攜手並肩製造出來的幽靈(本身往往就是被誤導,被利用的社會群組)。如上所述,中央政府,其香港研究,資訊和情報必定有問題,明顯欠缺不受任何本港既得利益集團人脈和收買影響的獨立自主完成的具體研究。只有做好獨立自主完成的,具體情況的具體研究,才能實施所謂全面管治權,如果真的要決心全面管治的話。這正是不屬於任何既得利益朋黨大聯盟的香港市民‘大明朝的老百姓’的心思。無論在政治義務上,美國必定會照樣歇斯底里地做出表層的公關反應,而23條立法對美國將會毫無障礙,是因為所謂商界(資本)正是最佳外國代理人,最安全,最佳滲透途徑,最佳政治金融網絡。因此IMF也鼓勵了港府繼續‘高端人才’輸入計畫來方便和優待他們跨國公司本來享受種種特殊福利的駐在人員來港。只要有這麼個港府,歐美就還需要什麼正宗顏色革命嗎?他們在本港政治上,主要的重點仍是維護既得利益。美國IMF與地產霸權站在同一邊。


FILE PHOTO: 中國政府尚未解決的本港動盪不安,貧窮,敵意和權力的惡性循環  © Ryota Nakanishi
FILE PHOTO: The Spiral of Unrest, Poverty, Antagonism and Power in Hong Kong © Ryota Nakanishi

The real estate oligarchy is "be patriotic and love Hong Kong" traitorous forces: recently the Hong Kong media generally quoted the 'globalization neoliberal Jesuit' U.S. government's IMF proposal which is in fact only a staff assessment awaiting board approval, but as the U.S. intelligence community’s 'relay station ' (See how the Hong Kong media reported the latest report of the US National Intelligence Director for United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, as if reporting on the Hollywood stars) the general Hong Kong media has modified it to report as if the IMF Board has finally approved the report. This point itself is to deceive the Hong Kong public as part of impression manipulation. This can be accomplished by not reporting some specific details. This in turn confirms that the local media is a sounding board for the U.S. government and its intelligence community.


In addition, the mission's staff assessment is in fact equivalent to the Annual Reform Recommendations from the Government of the United States to the Government of Japan, which the U.S. has requested from Japan. Under the U.S.-Japan Regulatory Reform and Competition Policy Initiative (abolished by Yukio Hatoyama's Democrat administration in 2009, it had continued from 2001 to 2009, abolishment of it became one of the revolutionary patriotic achievements of that short-lived revolutionary regime) or commonly known as one of the Japan Handlers, Richard Lee Armitage (1945-)'s -The INSS Special Report "The United States and Japan: Advancing Toward a Mature Partnership." In short, more neo-liberal 'reform' 'finger-pointing' by IMF and the US government to the Hong Kong government and the central government. Obviously, what the public needs to observe is that those who accept this and stand with it are undoubtedly the so-called 'external forces', the real traitors to the country and to Hong Kong.


The "be patriotic and love Hong Kong" sellout force is that the IMF-backing-real estate party whose own capital self-interest is in line with the IMF's 'reform' demands. If the real estate party is really patriotic and loves Hong Kong, then the US government and its IMF are the real patriotic and Hong Kong-loving forces of China. Politically, they have completely unmasked the true nature of the 'patriotic and Hong Kong-loving' theatre. The main theme of Hong Kong politics is how the U.S., under the operation of the "be patriotic and love Hong Kong" theatre, can resist the influence and competition from the Chinese Communist Party in the long run, sometimes creating (and handing out) villainous roles for the real estate party (such as the umbrella, Mong Kok fish balls, the anti-extradition law amendment bill storm, and the ghostly separatist phantoms of Hong Kong independence), while maintaining its own vested interests.


Then, when the CCP disintegrates one day (at least, at the speed of the cosmic universe as when it disintegrates the dynamic zero state policy, and most unfortunately, when there will be 'no working class to stand up to stop the CCP's disintegration, the capitalists on both sides of the Taiwan Strait have finally waited for that day'), they will be able to continue to cooperate with the real estate party to control the political and economic lifelines of Hong Kong. (Once the CCP collapses, they will change their political slogans and postures, just as they did when they returned to China, but the current political and economic system of the ruling class in Hong Kong will remain largely unchanged and will only continue.) In other words, at a deeper level, the US allows and highly accommodates the so-called 'pro-establishment' faction and the Hong Kong government. Then, the so-called electoral reforms, the recent DC 'reforms', and the 'improvements' are also the prizes that the real estate party wanted to extend the power of capital and take full control of Hong Kong politics. The villainous role created for this purpose is the so-called opposition, treating the opposition as scapegoats and at the same time treating them as political bargaining materials between the ruling class and the central government in Hong Kong, so as to force the Chinese Communist Party to rely only on the crony alliance of the real estate party, always listening only to them, always referring only to the real estate party think-tanks, such as New World and Li & Fung (Hong Kong-America Center incident, the mastermind behind the Liberal Studies course) of the Our Hong Kong Foundation and US-CSIS ideologue, Liu Zhaojia's 'study', which gave the real estate party political monopoly to exclude the so-called opposition created by the same real estate party and the US themselves for this prize.


On the whole, the conclusion of the political line initiated by Deng Xiaoping is the path of preserving the dominance of reactionary forces of China and abroad for such an indefinite period of time, just to maintain the sovereign structure. At the same time, this will continue to be the perpetuation of the long-term suffering and livelihood problems of the ruled class, who aspire to liberation. The real estate party in Hong Kong, which is very good at arranging political situations, is 'fortunate' to have its ruling class status systematically fixed by the CCP.


To maintain the sovereignty structure without bloodshed, the established vested interest groups must be preserved. However, as long as the vested interest groups and their exploitation in ecology are maintained, the people who are expected to be liberated will not be liberated, and even as time passes, people's livelihood and public sentiment will naturally deteriorate and become hostile. Further, the political soil becomes a hotbed for vested interests to deceive and politically exploit the public through the media and public figures. It is only the former (the maintenance of vested interests and their exploitative ecology) that is being strengthened with expanded political power to 'perfect'. The Central Government is strengthening the vested interests in Hong Kong to exclude the ghosts (often misguided and exploited social groups themselves) created by the same vested interests working hand in hand with the so-called external forces for this political gain.


As mentioned above, the central government, its Hong Kong research, information and intelligence must be problematic, obviously lacking in any Hong Kong vested interests group of people and bribes to complete independent and autonomous specific research. Only a specific study of the specific situation, done independently and autonomously, can implement the so-called right to full governance, if it is really determined to do so. This is exactly what the 'people of the Ming Dynasty' of Hong Kong, who do not belong to any crony coalition of vested interests, have in mind.


Regardless of political obligations, the U.S. will certainly make the same hysterical public relations response, and the Article 23 legislation will be no obstacle to the U.S. because the so-called business community (capital) is the best foreign agent, the safest, the best channel of penetration, and the best political and financial network. So the IMF has encouraged the Hong Kong government to continue the 'top talent' importation program to facilitate and favor the entry of their resident staff who are already enjoying special benefits from multinational companies. With such a Hong Kong government, do Europe and the United States need any more authentic color revolutions? Their main focus in Hong Kong politics is still to protect their vested interests. The US IMF is on the same side as the real estate hegemony.


The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.



2. 地產美元體系(Real-estate-dollar system):LERS(香港聯繫匯率制度; 美元與港幣固定匯率制; 1983-, 1998, 2005-)是體現本港政經親美的‘自由女神像’。IMF的首要目的是維護這個‘不戰而勝’的戰利品。在外交上,屬於基辛格所謂‘蛋糕’。完全排除表面的公關和政宣,光是從LERS來看,至少在中國境內,沒有任何‘政權性機構’比港府更親美的。IMF及其美國政府=美國情報界把LERS視為決定香港國際金融中心地位的核心價值。換言之,一旦廢止了在政治上這個相當於石油美元系統(petrodollar system)的地產美元體系(real-estate-dollar system),整個美國政府就會把它宣布為‘香港不再是個國際金融中心了’。港府對美國的自信(美國不會徹底搞砸香港)是因為美國已贏盡香港經濟,只要港府維持1美元=7.8港幣的美元與港幣固定匯率制,他就不敢搞砸自己的戰利品。


IMF(全球新自由主義顏色革命的推手,IMF=美國政府)對港府客客氣氣,和氣生財,只採取維護既得利益的態度濃厚。而對勞動者階級而言,1美元=7.8港幣的美元與港幣固定匯率制的意思是,高樓價780萬港幣的豪宅單位對美元使用者而言,就等於100萬港幣的廉價單位。香港勞動者的一個小時78港幣的勞動力,對美元使用者而言,等於10港幣的價值而已,遠遠低過40港幣的最低工資。原來一小時78港幣的本地勞動可以變為10個人的勞動,可剝削的剩餘價值就是港幣資本的10倍。意思是說,對美元使用者而言,所有港幣顯示的本港勞動,產品和服務,甚至所有財產就等於1/7.8港幣的價值而已。並且,以美元結算的資本的成本也就是1/7.8港幣而已。


香港勞動者遭受的是1/7.8港幣的貶值,7.8倍的剩餘價值的剝削。這個新自由主義金融貨幣政策正是港府賜予美國政府的戰利品,極大優惠,絕對親美的證據。因此,IMF的目的只是維護香港聯繫匯率制度就好了。在原理和利害關係上,美國根本不需要發動什麼真心的顏色革命來推翻維護此美國戰利品的港府的。對美元使用者而言,根本不存在本港高樓價的問題,是因為不動產的港幣價格固定地變為1/7.8港幣而已。何況,皮毛的辣招稅。對IMF而言,所謂辣招本身也是可以不理的,是因為有1美元=7.8港幣的美元與港幣固定匯率制(對美元,整個香港的價值等於1/7.8港幣)。誠然,IMF理它就是為了本港政治,為地產黨助威。在這個1美元=7.8港幣的美元與港幣固定匯率制上,本港最大得益者正是地產霸權,地產黨。就單一項目,穩定使用美元,至少可保證以1/7.8港幣成本建設,並可以賺盡7.8倍的天價樓宇利潤。 從此反觀,地產霸權絕不可能非親美勢力


Real-estate-dollar system: LERS (Hong Kong Linked Exchange Rate System; US Dollar and Hong Kong Dollar Fixed Exchange Rate System; 1983-, 1998, 2005-) is the embodiment of Hong Kong's political and economic pro-American 'Statue of Liberty'. The IMF's primary objective is to preserve this 'non-battle' trophy. In diplomatic terms, it is what Kissinger calls 'the cake'. The IMF and its U.S. government = the U.S. intelligence community see LERS as a core value in determining Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. In other words, once the real-estate-dollar system, which is the political equivalent of the petrodollar system, is abolished, the entire US government will declare it as 'Hong Kong is no longer an international financial center'.


The IMF (the driving force behind the global neo-liberal color revolution, IMF = US government) has been polite to the Hong Kong government, and has taken a strong attitude of protecting its vested interests. For the working class, the fixed exchange rate system between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar of US$1 = HK$7.8 means that a luxury flat with a high price of HK$7.8 million is the same as a cheap flat with a price of HK$1 million for a US dollar user. An hour's labor of HK$78 for a Hong Kong worker is worth only HK$10 to a US dollar user, far less than the minimum wage of HK$40. It turns out that one hour of local labor at HK$78 can be turned into the labor of 10 people, and the surplus value can be exploited to 10 times the value of Hong Kong dollar capital. This means that to a US dollar user, all local labor, products and services, and even all property, expressed in Hong Kong dollars, is only worth 1/7.8 of a Hong Kong dollar. Also, the cost of capital denominated in US dollars is only 1/7.8 of a Hong Kong dollar.


The Hong Kong workforce suffers the depreciation of 1/7.8 of the Hong Kong dollar and the exploitation of 7.8 times the surplus value generally. This neo-liberal financial and monetary policy is the very 'spoils of war' that the Hong Kong government has bestowed on the U.S. government, extremely preferential and absolutely pro-U.S. evidence. Therefore, the IMF's purpose is only to maintain Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system. In principle and at stake, the U.S. does not need to start any sincere color revolution to overthrow the Hong Kong government that defends this U.S. war chest.


For US dollar users, the problem of high property prices in Hong Kong does not exist because the price of real estate in Hong Kong dollars is fixed at 1/7.8 Hong Kong dollars. Not to mention, the skinny on the spicy stamp duties. For the IMF, the so-called spicy stamp dutie itself can be ignored, because there is a fixed exchange rate system between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar of US$1 = HK$7.8 (for the US dollar, the value of the whole Hong Kong is equal to 1/7.8 of the Hong Kong dollar). Admittedly, the IMF is doing it for the sake of Hong Kong politics and cheering for the real estate party. The biggest beneficiary of the fixed exchange rate system between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar, where US$1 = HK$7.8, is the real estate hegemony / oligarchy, the real estate party.


For a single project, the stable use of the US dollar guarantees that at least 1/7.8 of the cost of construction will be used to make 7.8 times the profit of the sky-high price of the building. From this point of view, the real estate hegemony can never be non-pro-US forces.


The LERS continues to function smoothly, providing a solid anchor to the economy and the financial system, allowing the latter to perform its role as an international financial centre. Financial linkages with Mainland China continue to deepen, including through the expansion of various Connect schemes, reinforcing Hong Kong SAR’s status as a key financial gateway vis-à-vis Mainland China.


The LERS remains the appropriate arrangement for Hong Kong SAR as an anchor for macroeconomic and financial stability. Several factors, including the mechanism’s transparency, ample foreign reserves, a prudent fiscal policy framework, robust financial regulation and supervision, and the economy’s flexibility, ensure the credibility of LERS.


3. 美國IMF與地產黨的撤辣要求和負資產威脅論相一致:眾所周知,世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織都是惡名昭彰的全球推動新自由主義顏色革命的美國政府觸手,都等於美國政府,總部也都位於美國華盛頓。重點是,此次IMF職員評估證實了本港地產霸權/地產黨和美國IMF之間的利害關係之政治一致性。就時序而言,最近地產黨和港府有過辯論,因此此次由本港地產黨請IMF助威的。足認IMF是地產霸權的保鑣。2023年4月27日,立法會地產界代表龍漢標要求港府撤辣,這等於他和地產霸權推銷的是以促進炒樓來解決炒樓造成的本港房屋高樓價問題。簡直是厚顏無恥,瘋狂貪欲。


炒樓有否消失?這只要看目前高地價,高樓價,高租金,高物價都消失了沒,就得知

炒樓問題消失的一天將會是本港終於解決好高地價,高樓價,高租金,高物價問題的一天。IMF和地產黨,現在該日已到了嗎? 回答一目了然。


甚至,2023年至4月底觀察到了,頭3個月已連續記錄了樓價上升,本港樓價處於上升趨勢之際(不論其升起速度,‘放緩’的升起也是升起),更不適合所謂撤辣主張。明顯,IMF的結論是政治性的,忽略了這個事實。正如地產黨,地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅(九龍倉;最近搞出了其天星小輪船長連續23日工作後5日休息制度下,過勞猝死事件)所說,樓市將會在今年年底向好,那就更不需要主張撤辣吧? 他和其他地產黨員華懋集團執行董事兼行政總裁蔡宏興都明顯只為‘投資者’炒樓投機份子的私利暴利說話。此外,最可笑的是,港府的2022/2023印花稅收大幅減少30%之際,IMF=美國政府和地產黨進一步要砍掉港府印花稅來源也是不得時宜的政治主張。更不算什麼解決辦法。


最近地產黨重提撤辣,說什麼不再會有炒樓了?若真的不再存在了炒樓投機分子,那高樓價平均大約八百萬左右則早已降到基層可負擔水平。現實仍然正相反,高樓價的事實證實炒樓的存在。雖然辣招本身並非解決房屋問題的積極方式,而是消極方式,而它只能可望減慢炒樓速度而已,財政司司長陳茂波一再正確地以高樓價的事實本身來反駁地產黨了。一針見血。


The U.S.=IMF is consistent with the real estate party's demand for withdrawal of stamp duties and the threat of negative equity: it is well known that both the World Bank and the IMF are the tentacles of the infamous global neo-liberal color revolution of the U.S. government, both are equivalent to the U.S. government, and both are headquartered in Washington, D.C. The important point is that this IMF staff assessment confirms the political alignment of the stakes between the local real estate hegemony/ oligarchy /property party and the U.S.=IMF. In terms of timing, there has been a recent debate between the real estate party and the Hong Kong government, so the IMF was asked by the local real estate party to provide support.


On April 27, 2023, the representative of the real estate sector in the Legislative Council, Louis Loong Hon-biu, asked the Hong Kong government to withdraw the spicy measures, which means that he and the real estate hegemony are promoting property speculation to solve the problem of high property prices in Hong Kong caused by property speculation. It is simply to the brazen, crazy greed. Has property speculation disappeared? This just only need to look at the current high land prices, high property prices, high rents, high commodity prices have disappeared or not, will know the answer. The IMF and the real estate party, has that day arrived? The answer is clear. Even, 2023 to the end of April, the first three months have recorded a continuous rise in property prices, Hong Kong property prices are in an upward trend at the time (regardless of its rate of rise, 'slow' rise is also a rise), the more unsuitable for the so-called withdrawal of chilly measures. Obviously, the IMF's conclusion is political and ignores this fact.


As the real estate party, the chairman of the executive committee of the Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong, Leung Chi-kin (Wharf; recently, there was an incident in which the captain of the Star Ferry died suddenly of overwork under their corporate labor system of working for 23 consecutive days and then taking five days off), said that the property market will improve by the end of this year, so there is no need to advocate the withdrawal of spices, right? He and other real estate party member Chinachem Group Executive Director and Chief Executive Officer CHOI Wun Hing Donald obviously only speak for the selfish profiteering of 'investors' speculating in property. Moreover, the most ridiculous thing is that the IMF = the US government and the real estate party are making untimely political arguments to cut the source of stamp duties for the Hong Kong government at a time when the government's 2022/2023 stamp duty revenue is being reduced by a whopping 30%. It is not a solution.


Recently, the real estate party has reintroduced the withdrawal of spices, saying that there will be no more property speculation? If speculators really no longer existed, the average price of a high-rise property would have fallen to an affordable level for the grassroots. The reality is still the opposite, the fact that high property prices confirm the existence of property speculation. Although the spicy measures themselves are not a positive way to solve the housing problem, but a negative way, and it can only hope to slow down the pace of speculation, Financial Secretary Paul Chan has repeatedly and correctly used the fact of high property prices itself to refute the real estate party. The point is that the real estate party has been rightly refuted by the fact of high property prices.


本港樓市高企,政府推樓市「辣招」惟樓價只升不跌,業界斥樓市辣招扭曲市場。立法會今(27日)繼續二讀辯論撥款條例草案,地產及建造界議員龍漢標促政府盡快推出樓市「減辣」措施,維護長線投資者利益及幫助樓市回復正常供求水平,以保持市場健康發展。


龍漢標指本港解決「住屋」問題,「減辣」和「撤辣」可以促進二手物業流轉和增加租盤,令市民更容易置業。「減辣」會直接導致政府住宅物業可以自住之餘,更可作出租用途。他表示,不少包括退休長者在內的長線投資者,依靠租金幫補收入,不僅可以減輕子女的住屋與養育壓力,亦可免卻政府的額外福利津貼,惟「辣招」帶來的巨額成本大大降低了收租的回報,令投資者卻步,長期以來只會擾亂本港良性供求關係。


本港上月樓價連升3個月,按月升近1.4%,創半年高位,但升幅較2月放緩。樓價指數今年首季累升近5%。理大建築及房地產學系教授許智文認為,最近樓價升勢放緩,主要是經濟復蘇較慢,以及有不少新盤以貼市價賣樓,同一項目可能較上一期定價低,甚至比二手樓價更低,對樓價有一定壓力。許智文說,目前市況不算太好,發展商以貼市價推盤,主要是預期未來供應較多,希望透過調整價錢,吸引原本無法入市的買家以促進銷售,預計有關情況可能會持續。他相信今年樓市會繼續復蘇,樓價有上升空間,但升勢不會太急。他又指,就算美國聯儲局可能在下周議息會議再度加息,但市場已有一定心理準備,當局再大幅加息的可能性不大,相信對本地樓市的震撼有限,未來樓價走勢主要取決於經濟環境和住宅市場的供應競爭。


地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅表示,國務院港澳辦主任夏寶龍訪港6日,雖然未有會見地建商會,但相信夏寶龍在會見商界的眾多場合,已收到會方意見,認為中央在多方面都「幫到手」,認為只要經濟好,市場自然好,住屋問題是次要。梁志堅認為,樓市經過3年疫情後不可能一次復原,目前樓市表現一般,認為適合上車客買樓,但預期要到9月才會明顯向好。


香港地產建設商會執行委員會主席梁志堅說,早前曾經在公開場合見過在本港考察的港澳辦主任夏寶龍,雖然沒有與對方單獨傾談,但相信許多個別會員在不同場合與對方談及香港經濟情況,希望經歷過去三年疫情,經濟能夠盡快恢復。梁志堅認為,本港經濟不能即時好轉,地產及樓市亦要慢慢復蘇,他個人估計至少要到9月市況才較明朗,有意買樓人士仍在等機會,目前市道適合上車客,強調地產市道亦靠經濟復蘇,不能獨善其身。被問到樓市辣招,梁志堅說,辣招當時是有需要的,但經過逾十年,形容使命已經達到,是名存實亡,難聽點說是「阻住地球轉」。他明白政府顧慮一旦撤辣樓市炒賣「冚冚聲嚟」,但他認為現時不會再有類似情況。梁志堅指出,辣招對首次置業人士沒有影響,卻阻礙政府招攬人才,因為這些人才來港買樓,需要在7年後才退回有關稅款,重申希望政府撤辣,可以逐步來。他說,政府招攬人才,要協助他們解決居住問題,否則人才怎會來港。梁志堅又認為,當局推出青年宿舍,對青年是有一些輔助,是好的開始,做到多少政府有本身看法,既不會令到地產商沒有生意做,亦照顧民生,相信政府會權衡利弊。至於簡約公屋,他表示,有些地產商已提供土地,尤其是發展農地同時可改善附近交通,在新界值得推動。另外,被問到政府要求發展商在樓面面積獲寬免的停車場加裝電動車充電設施,梁志堅說,已經去信會員呼籲盡量提供協助。他指出,新入則的樓宇應該沒有問題,已落成樓宇若要盡快做,相信亦不困難。


華懋集團執行董事兼行政總裁蔡宏興,回應地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅早前指,樓市辣招名存實亡、「阻住地球轉」的說法,指最初推出辣招時的經濟環境,與現時很不同,認為政府應隨著市場變動,調整不同政策,絕對有空間檢討辣招。


港府劣質施政拖累,香港魅力消退,近年出現移民潮,大量人才流失之餘,直接令需納稅人口大縮水!稅務局昨向全港納稅人發出約240萬份報稅表,較2022至23課稅年度發出的273萬份報稅表,大減33萬份,更是持續3年錄得跌幅。而受着樓市交投疲弱影響,繳納的印花稅亦按年暴跌297億元。有議員建議要檢討現行稅制,擴闊稅基,否則庫房空虛將進一步萎縮影響民生。


國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)已經就香港經濟的所謂第四條款磋商發表了總結聲明指出,儘管樓市在去年有所回調,進一步的調整仍可能對經濟構成風險,按揭貸款利率上升,樓市進一步調整,或會帶來更沉重的償債負擔及負財富效應,遏抑私人消費。IMF相信,增加房屋供應是解決結構性供求失衡的關鍵。至於樓市相關的宏觀審慎監管措施應該維持,在樓市受壓時則予以調整。IMF又提到,若來自炒賣需求的系統性風險減退,印花稅應予以調整。該機構解釋,隨着經濟活動正常化及邊境重開,當局應審慎監察永久性居民及非永久性居民炒賣需求所產生的系統性風險,並作好準備調整相關印花稅。具體而言,若來自非永久性居民及炒賣需求的系統性風險減退,當局可分階段取消在基金組織資金流向評估中,被評為資金流向管理及宏觀審慎監管措施的買家印花稅及新住宅印花稅。


儘管環球宏觀金融環境充滿挑戰,但隨着新冠疫情後經濟活動逐漸恢復正常,香港經濟正在強勁回升。金融體系保持穩健,聯匯制度繼續暢順運作,為經濟及金融體系提供穩固的支柱,讓金融體系發揮國際金融中心的角色,故聯匯制度仍然是維護香港宏觀經濟及金融穩定的最合適安排。有關搶人才方面,IMF認為香港應繼續加強吸引人才的競爭力,支持發展創新型工業和營造商業動力,並增加數碼相關科技的教育及在職培訓,增加邁向數碼化及技術主導型經濟所需的勞動力供應。IMF認為,港府可視乎需要進一步擴大吸引海外人才的計劃。


國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)有關香港的第四條磋商訪問初步結論提到,宏觀審慎措施已緩減金融穩定風險,但按揭貸款利率上升,樓市進一步調整,或會帶來更沉重的還債負擔及負財富效應,遏迎私人消費。IMF表示,增加房屋供應是解決結構性供求失衡的關鍵,代表團歡迎現屆政府採取更協調的策略,增加房屋及住宅土地供應,包括物色土地及簡化法定與行政程序,認為當局可透過財政措施以鼓勵更有效地運用現有房屋。IMF認為,應維持樓市相關的宏觀審慎監管措施,但在樓市受壓時作出調整。隨著經濟活動正常化及邊境重開,當局應審慎監察永久性居民及非永久性居民炒賣所產生的系統性風險。IMF建議,若有關風險減退,當局可分階段取消買家印花稅及新住宅印花稅。另外,IMF提到,資本自由流動繼續支撐香港作為國際金融中心的競爭力,推動創科發展可提供額外的經濟增長動力。IMF認為,香港應繼續加強吸引人才的競爭力,建議可視乎需要進一步擴大吸引海外人才的計劃。


While the housing market corrected in 2022, a further adjustment in the property market could still pose risks to the economy. On the back of weak economic activity and rising interest rates, residential property prices declined by about 16 percent by end-2022 from the peak in September 2021, before recovering in early 2023. Financial stability risks have been mitigated by existing macroprudential measures, which help limit potential nonperforming loans as well as banks’ potential credit losses once defaults materialize. However, a further market adjustment in the face of rising mortgage rates could suppress private consumption through higher debt servicing burden and negative wealth effects.


Housing-related macroprudential measures should be maintained and can be recalibrated in the event housing-related stress materializes. As the principal objective of these macroprudential measures is to safeguard financial stability, any relaxation of loan-to-value (LTV) and debt service-to-income (DSTI) requirements should be commensurate with the extent that housing-related downside risks (e.g. house price declines and rising interest rates) have materialized.


Stamp duties need to be adjusted if the systemic risks arising from speculative demand dissipates. Amid the economic normalization and the reopening of the border, the authorities should carefully monitor the systemic risk arising from speculative demand by both residents and non-residents and stand ready to adjust relevant stamp duties. In particular, the Buyer’s Stamp Duty and New Residential Stamp Duty, which are assessed to be capital flow management and macroprudential measures (CFM/MPMs) under the IMF’s Institutional View on capital flows, could be phased out once systemic risk from non-resident and speculative demands dissipate.


財政司司長陳茂波表示,去年本港樓價累計跌逾15%,但由於是自高位回落,目前樓價水平仍然高企。加上政府早前實施的樓宇需求管理措施,旨在令未置業的香港市民在供求仍然偏緊的情況下有優先機會,因此政府經研究後,認為目前不適合撤銷任何樓市辣招。 陳茂波在一個電台節目上重申,去年4.5萬宗成交中,有90%市民是首次置業,大部分是中小型單位,政府因而決定調整相關從價印花稅稅階,減輕市民負擔。 他又提到,去年樓市受經濟疲弱及加息等拖累,成交量跌至4.5萬宗,前年經濟較好時有約7.5萬宗,平均而言,去年交投量仍然維持2013至2020年每年約6萬宗成交的水平。由於經濟逐步向好,相信樓市正在企穩。





 

Hong Kong Intelligence Report #103

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