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Hong Kong Intelligence Report #112 以巴衝突和俄烏戰爭的相互作用和政治意義

Updated: Dec 15, 2023

Open-source intelligence (OSINT)

Hong Kong Intelligence Report #112 以巴衝突和俄烏戰爭的相互作用和政治意義
FILE PHOTO: Israel and American Flags near Christmas tree © Envato

🔻 IMPORTANT 【重要】以巴衝突和俄烏戰爭


▪️關於以巴衝突和俄烏戰爭,以色列國防軍IDF十分清楚在理論上,無限期的以巴衝突的延續將會拖累美國,並且軍援烏克蘭逐漸減少或被喊停,此兩者都只會有利於俄國在俄烏戰爭的勝利。因此,以色列正在盡力在一年內,短期內完成最近的剿滅恐怖主義的軍事作戰,這考慮美國的困境在內。


不但在軍援烏克蘭上,美國,英國和北約國家居首位,在以巴衝突上,尤其在2011年到2020年之間,在所有武器輸出給以色列的國家中,美國佔70.2%,德國佔23.9%,義大利則佔5.9%。這軍事貿易的經濟狀況正合乎這些國家在以巴衝突上支持以色列的政治表態。在晚期資本主義社會裡,軍工產業是全球最大的,也是深受國家支援的經濟體。後來廣泛被俄方引用的美國國防部長的近日發言揭示了美國透過軍援烏克蘭發展本身的軍工體制和改善國內就業(實體經濟)。這本身也切合美國的國益。但白宮又揭露了在可確保軍援以色列的預算的同時,軍援烏克蘭的預算則將陷入困境。 就整體而言,有關外圍因素,俄烏戰爭和以巴衝突的軍事行動延續都會逐漸分散和拉開美國的資源。雖然以色列國防軍IDF昨日也發布了剿滅恐怖主義組織哈瑪斯/救出以色列人質的明確目標,也逐漸在戰場上佔優勢,以色列單獨可以完成其目標,但是目前形成的局勢則是在俄烏戰爭上有利於俄國。


(補充)俄國在此局勢,可贏盡烏克蘭戰爭和中東。兩者並非「非此即彼」,而是高度政治技術和戰略的事宜。此外,美國不但不限期以色列行動,也否決立刻停戰都合乎以色列和美國的利益和互信。

 

Point: Theoretically, the endless continuation of the Israeli-Palestinian (Hamas) conflict will drag down the US, as Israel knows very well. On the other hand, the gradual reduction or cessation of military aid to Ukraine, both of which will only favor Russia's victory in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Thus, Israel is trying to complete the latest military operation against terrorists within one year, a short term in consideration of the difficulties of the US. Furthermore, Israel’s protracted war capability is greater than any hostile country in the region. It is optimistic that the Jewish people will conquer terrorism in the end.

 

Not only do the US, UK and NATO countries lead the way in military aid to Ukraine, but in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, especially between 2011 and 2020, the US will account for 70.2% of all arms exports to Israel, with Germany accounting for 23.9% and Italy 5.9% (URL). The economics of this military trade is consistent with the political stance of these countries in favor of Israel in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In late capitalist societies, the military-industrial sector is the largest in the world and is a highly state-supported economy. A recent statement by the U.S. Secretary of Defense, widely quoted by the Russians, reveals that the U.S. is developing its own military-industrial system and improving domestic employment (the real economy) through military aid to Ukraine. This in itself is in the interest of the United States. However, the White House also revealed that while the budget for military aid to Israel can be secured, the budget for military aid to Ukraine will be in trouble. Overall, the external factors, the Russian-Ukrainian war and the continuation of military operations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, will gradually divert U.S. resources. Although the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced yesterday the clear goal of eliminating the terrorist organization Hamas and rescuing the Israeli hostages, and is gradually gaining the upper hand on the battlefield, and Israel can accomplish its goal alone, the current situation favors Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war. 


(UPDATE) In this situation, Russia could win both the Ukrainian War and the Middle East. The two are not "either/or" but highly political, technical and strategic issues. Moreover, not only did the US not give Israel any time limitation, but it also denied that an immediate truce would be in the interests of Israel and the US and in the interests of mutual trust.


▪️因哈馬斯採取游擊戰,以色列國防軍在採取反游擊戰的戰術,即從哈馬斯恐怖分子游擊戰區,把平民(後方)撤走是正確的,也與種族,政治,宗教等無關。它是個純粹軍事措施。哈馬斯的地道網絡也會被炸爛,以色列國防軍也不會深入其中,是因為徹底炸掉它就夠了。(補充)


Because Hamas is engaging in guerrilla warfare, the IDF is correct in adopting anti-guerrilla warfare tactics, i.e., evacuating civilians (in the rear) from the Hamas terrorist guerrilla war zones, and it has nothing to do with ethnicity, politics, religion, etc. It is a purely military measure. The Hamas tunnel network will also be blown up, and the IDF will not go deeper into it, because blowing it up completely will be enough. (Updated)



🔻 NEWS / FACTs 【事實關係】

 

▪️The Israel Defense Forces, founded two weeks after the state of Israel was established in 1948, relies on a tradition of compulsory military service beginning at age 18.

  • There are approximately 169,500 active-duty personnel and roughly 465,000 Israelis in reserve units.

  • In the days since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, more than 300,000 reservists have been called up.

  • The IDF's annual budget of around $23.6 billion, as of 2023, surpasses the total military spending of Egypt, Iran, Lebanon and Jordan combined.

 URL

 

▪️“It turns out, it’s all about defense goods commissioning to increase military production output and create jobs. And, possibly, about the enormous profit that the companies close to the Biden administration get from it,” Medvedev wrote.

 

▪️Cutting off the flow of US weapons and equipment will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield, not only putting at risk the gains Ukraine has made, but increasing the likelihood of Russian military victories.

 

▪️ A Statement by the Chief of the General Staff:

 

"Good evening,

60 days after the war began, our forces are now encircling the Khan Yunis area in the southern Gaza Strip. 
Simultaneously, we continue to secure our accomplishments in the northern Gaza Strip.
Those who thought that the IDF would not know how to renew the fighting after the pause were mistaken, and Hamas is already feeling this. 
Many Hamas operatives, including senior commanders, have been eliminated in recent days.


 

We have moved to the third phase of the ground operations. 
We have secured many Hamas strongholds in the northern Gaza Strip, and now we are operating against its strongholds in the south. 
We operate professionally; evacuating the population from combat zones; striking Hamas from above and below ground with combined strikes from the air, sea, and land. 


We are deploying our ground forces into combat with powerful and precise support of fire and intelligence with a high level of accuracy. Our forces engage with many terrorists, target them effectively, in an impressive manner. 
With our forces are ISA representatives, bringing the capabilities of the organization.


 

Our forces are joined by representatives from across the IDF - this partnership really builds strength on the battlefield.
Many ask about the destruction in Gaza. Hamas is the address. Sinwar is the address. Our forces find in nearly every building and house weapons and in many houses terrorists, and engage them in combat. 
We understand that part of their method is the weapons left in the houses.

 

A terrorist arrives in civilian clothing and conducts combat from there. Striking them requires significant use of fire, both to target the enemy but also to, of course, protect our forces. Therefore the forces operate powerfully, while making big efforts to mitigate as much as possible harm to civilians.
The military pressure we are applying and have applied in recent weeks is severely damaging Hamas, advancing the achievement of all the war’s objectives, with the top priority of returning all the hostages home.


 

Yesterday, I had the opportunity to meet commanders in combat in the northern Gaza Strip. I hear them, I talk to them, they say very clearly - we are ready and willing to do everything to return the hostages, to do everything to strike Hamas and dismantle this organization. And I see their wisdom, they also know how to turn these two missions into complementary missions and not competing things, and we are truly doing everything to return the hostages.

 

I want to say a few words about the northern border, the Lebanese border.
Hezbollah chose to open fire at the end of the operational pause. 
We identified this in advance and prepared for this. 
We are resolutely acting against anyone preparing, or attempting to harm the citizens of Israel, IDF soldiers or those that pose a threat to our territory. 
We are exacting a high price from Hezbollah, one that it is trying to hide, which they probably understand why. 
We are focused on Gaza, but together with this we are continuing operational activities aimed at achieving a better security reality in the north of Israel.

 

In the Central Command, in Judea and Samaria, we are increasing the fight against terrorism, so far we must say with great success. In the last two months, over 1,200 Hamas operatives were apprehended in Judea and Samaria, many terrorists who carried out attacks, some very serious attacks in the past, some that were planning to carry out future attacks. They were arrested or killed, and we are very determined to continue this effort.

 

A few days ago, we experienced a tragic event in Jerusalem, in which the late Yuval Doron Castelman was killed. 
It is important to me to say: we praise the heroism of a civilian who ran bravely into the fire, to stop other civilians from being killed. This is truly heroic. In the same breath, we emphasize the necessity to adhere to the necessary basic rules in such complex cases of gunfire in a civilian environment. Don't rush to shoot when the risk has diminished and we don't shoot at those who have their hands up. The specific case itself is of course still under investigation, but these insights are important that we all know now.

 

I visit the forces and see our resolute men and women fighting, fighting with the most senior of our commanders leading them. 
In this war, we have lost some of our best commanders, who fought at the forefront of the forces. Both on October 7th and the days following.
This is the way of the IDF on the battlefield – commanders at the front.
The IDF - all its commanders and soldiers - is wholly engaged in achieving the war's goals. Among them is creating a different security response that will allow the residents to return to their homes – both in the south and in the north. 


 

The IDF is already working on this today, planning forward. 
We know that more forces will be required at the borders, more capabilities and an increased presence alongside the residents, in order to return safely - and that’s what we will do. We will be there with you, residents of northern and southern Israel.
We - the soldiers of the IDF - will do everything, everything, to repair what has been damaged. For the murdered, this repair is too late. For the life and continuity of life in the State of Israel, it is essential. We will not stop until we complete the mission."

 

總參謀長致辭:

 

"晚上好!

戰爭開始 60 天後,我軍現已包圍加沙地帶南部的汗尤尼斯地區。
與此同時,我們繼續確保我們在加沙地帶北部取得的成就。
那些認為以色列國防軍在暫停後不知道如何繼續戰鬥的人錯了,哈馬斯已經感覺到了這一點。
最近幾天,包括高級指揮官在內的許多哈馬斯特工人員都已被消滅了。


 

我們已進入了地面行動的第三階段了。
我們已經佔領了哈馬斯在加沙地帶北部的許多據點,現在我們正在對其在南部的據點採取行動。
我們的行動非常專業;將加沙居民撤離戰鬥區域;從地面和地下對哈馬斯實施海陸空聯合打擊。


 

我們正在部署我們的地面部隊投入戰鬥,提供強大而精確的火力和情報支持,而且精確度也很高。我們的部隊與許多恐怖分子交戰了,有效地打擊了他們,這令人印象深刻。
與我們的部隊一起的還有以色列國家安全局(ISA)的代表,他們帶來了該組織的能力。
整個以色列國防軍的代表也加入了我們的部隊-這種合作關係真正增強了戰場上的力量。
許多人問加沙的破壞情況。那是哈馬斯所在。也就是辛瓦爾所在。我們的部隊幾乎在每一棟建築和房屋中都發現了武器,在許多房屋中發現了恐怖分子,並與他們交戰。
我們知道,他們的方法之一就是把武器留在房子里。恐怖分子身著便裝抵達,並在那裡展開戰鬥。打擊他們需要大量使用火力,既要瞄准敵人,當然也要保護我們的部隊。因此,我軍在大力開展行動的同時,盡可能減少對平民的傷害。
我們正在施加和最近幾週已經施加的軍事壓力正在嚴重破壞哈馬斯,推動實現所有戰爭目標,其中最優先的正是讓所有人質返回家園。

 

昨天,我有機會會見了在加沙地帶北部作戰的指揮官。我聽到他們的聲音,與他們交談,他們非常明確地說:我們準備好並願意盡一切努力讓人質返歸,盡一切努力打擊哈馬斯並瓦解這個組織。我看到了他們的智慧,他們也知道如何將這兩項任務變成互補的任務,而不是相互排斥的事情,我們確實在盡一切努力讓人質返歸。

 

我想就北部邊界,即黎巴嫩邊界說幾句話。
真主黨選擇在停戰結束時就開火。
我們提前發現了這一點,並為此做好了準備。
我們堅決打擊任何準備或企圖傷害以色列公民、以色列國防軍士兵或對我國領土構成威脅的人。
我們正在讓真主黨付出高昂的代價,而真主黨正試圖掩蓋這一代價,他們也許明白其中的原因。
我們的重點是加沙,但與此同時,我們還在繼續開展旨在改善以色列北部安全狀況的行動。

 

幾天前,我們在耶路撒冷經歷了一起悲慘事件,尤瓦爾-多倫-卡斯特爾曼在事件中喪生。
我必須說:我們贊揚一位平民勇敢地衝入火海,阻止其他平民被殺的英雄氣概。這才是真正的英雄。同時,我們也強調,在平民環境中發生這種複雜的槍擊事件時,必須遵守必要的基本規則。當危險減少時,不要急於開槍,我們也不要向那些舉起雙手的人開槍。當然,具體案件本身仍在調查中,但我們現在都知道這些見解很重要。

 

我訪問了部隊,看到我們的男女官兵在我們最高級別的指揮官的領導下堅決戰鬥。在這場戰爭中,我們失去了一些最優秀的指揮官,他們戰鬥在部隊的最前線。無論是在 10 月 7 日還是在隨後的日子裡。
這就是以色列國防軍在戰場上的作風,即指揮官衝鋒在前。
以色列國防軍-其所有指揮官和士兵-全心全意致力於實現戰爭目標。其中包括採取不同的安全對策,使南部和北部的居民都能重返家園。


 

今天,以色列國防軍已經開始著手這項工作,並進行了前瞻性規劃。
我們知道,為了讓居民安全返回,邊界需要更多的部隊、更強的能力和更多的存在-這就是我們要做的。我們將與你們在一起,以色列北部和南部的居民們。
我們-以色列國防軍的士兵-將盡一切努力,修復被破壞的一切。對於被殺害的人來說,這種修復為時已晚。為了以色列國的生命和生活的延續,這是至關重要的。不完成使命,我們決不罷休"。

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🔻 COMMENT 【評語】

 

一言以蔽之,以色列-哈瑪斯戰爭和俄國-烏克蘭戰爭的無限期延續只會有利於俄國。

 

In a nutshell, the indefinite continuation of the Israeli-Hamas War and the Russian-Ukrainian War will only benefit Russia ultimately.

 

 


Hong Kong Intelligence Report #112 以巴衝突和俄烏戰爭的相互作用和政治意義

 

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