Hong Kong Intelligence Report #82 俄烏衝突在日本的情形綜合報告
Updated: Apr 25
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
IMPORTANT 【重要】
本文涵蓋從2022年7月8日安倍晉三被暗殺到9月27日安倍國葬舉行期間。9月29日乃中日關係建交50週年（1972年《中日聯合聲明》-2022年）。作為全球最大美國軍事基地的日本的政治動向都最終必將衝擊中國及其香港的國安（日本在野黨，反對派無法阻擋執政黨自民黨及公明黨的軍事擴張或對外制裁，就只會直接導致中日衝突。這就是為什麼中國香港也不能不關注日本國內的政治局勢）。幾乎每一件日本政治事件都是難免帶有戰後日本史（系譜）的縮圖現象。美國的隱形殖民地日本仍然擺脫不出其戰後史。
本文一律不管日本的在野黨的命運，而只管在日本的俄國外交部和俄國媒體的處境。在嚴峻的形勢之下，正確的路線尤其是更需要的。情勢愈困難愈強烈需要正確路線。萬一路線是錯誤的，甚至領導層固執其錯誤路線，而導致更多失敗和混亂的風險。此時，視而不見，默許其錯誤的只有不負責任的公務員或卑劣的野心者而已。
This article covers the period from July 8, 2022, when Shinzo Abe was assassinated, to September 27, when Abe's state funeral taken place. September 29 marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan (1972 Sino-Japanese Joint Declaration - 2022). Any political move by Japan, the world's largest U.S. military base, will eventually have an impact on China and its national security in Hong Kong (in case the opposition parties in Japan are unable to block military expansion or foreign sanctions by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party, it will only lead to a direct conflict between China and Japan. Therefore Hong Kong, China, cannot help but pay attention to the political situation in Japan). Almost every political event in Japan is inevitably a thumbnail sketch of postwar Japanese history (genealogy). The invisible colony of the United States, Japan, still cannot escape from its postwar history.
This article is not concerned with the fate of the opposition parties in Japan, but with the situation of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian media in Japan. The need for a correct course is especially acute in this critical situation. The more difficult the situation, the stronger the need for the right line. In case the line is wrong, or even if the leadership clings to its wrong line, there is a risk of further failure and chaos. At this point, the only people who turn a blind eye and acquiesce to their mistakes are irresponsible civil servants or despicable ambitious people.
中立主義與「實現美軍的全面撤退」
那日本該如何終止殖民地的地位？ 那就是所有在野黨都畏懼的禁忌方案，「實現美軍的全面撤退」。未來革新政黨一旦掌握政權時，就首先必須廢止美日安保條約。這是日本邁向真正主權獨立，正常國家化的第一步。到目前為止，高喊對美獨立者（業者）甚多，但毫無日本在野黨將此方案定為公約。誠然，這些在野黨幾乎都淪為了CIA黨（日本的深層政府主要是幕後日本官僚和美軍國防部的勾結，並以美日合同委員會為其象徵）。真愛國者的第一目標乃禁忌中的禁忌「實現美軍的全面撤退」，是因為能否妥善和牢固地執行其他所有政策方案都取決於此。這是2009-10年民主黨鳩山由紀夫政權的教訓，也是能辨識真反對派的照妖鏡/試金石。此外，戰後美軍最厭煩的意識形態是中立主義，而不是可自動化打壓的小眾反美主義。至今，日本在野黨都沒人主張，但日本合乎日本國憲法的意識形態是中立主義，其實它本來就是中立主義的制度設計。不需要是親中或親俄或結盟，但只要秉持中立就足以解決本無必要的國際爭端。不過，只要有美軍基地，美軍隨時都可以自由出入境，運入運出核武器，化武，生化武器等，甚至隨時都可從日本攻打任何外國，如此，日本就會自動化地被捲入戰爭。顯然，日本應該成為一個真主權獨立的正常化中立主義國家。和平主義和中立主義，哪一個面是主要的？務實的？ 明確的？那就是中立主義這一面。中立主義才是和平主義。只有這樣，日本才能參與多邊主義/各國真主權獨立的新世界秩序。如上所述，為變成一個中立主義國家，「實現美軍的全面撤退」是必經之路。
Neutralism and the Realization of the Total Withdrawal of the U.S. Forces
How should Japan end its colonial status? That is the forbidden proposal that all opposition parties fear, the "complete withdrawal of U.S. troops. Once the revolutionary parties take power in the future, they must first abolish the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty. This is the first step towards the independence of Japan's sovereignty and the normalization of the country. Up to now, there are many people (businessmen) who shout for independence from the U.S., but no Japanese opposition party has made this proposal a convention. It is true that almost all these opposition parties have become CIA parties (Japan's deep state is mainly a collusion between Japanese bureaucrats and the U.S. Department of Defense behind the scenes, symbolized by Japan-US Joint Committee). The first goal of the True Patriots is the taboo of taboos, "achieving a full withdrawal of U.S. forces," because the proper and solid implementation of all other policy options depends on it. This is the lesson of the 2009-10 Democratic Party's Yukio Hatoyama regime, and it is also a monoscope/ touchstone to identify the true opposition. Moreover, the most annoying ideology for the post-war U.S. forces is neutralism, not the minority-led anti-Americanism that can be suppressed automatically. To date, no one in the opposition in Japan has argued that Japan's constitutional ideology is neutrality, and in fact it was originally designed as a neutralist system. It does not need to be pro-China or pro-Russian or allied with them, but neutrality is sufficient to resolve international disputes that are unnecessary. However, if there is a U.S. military base, the U.S. military can enter and leave the country at any time, transport nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, and even attack any foreign country from Japan at any time, so Japan will automatically be involved in the war. Obviously, Japan should become a normalized neutralist country with independent sovereignty. Which side of the constitutional ideology is the main one? pacifism or neutrality? Pragmatic? Clearly? It is the side of neutrality. Neutralism is true pacifism. Only in this way can Japan participate in the new world order of multilateralism/independence of the sovereignty of each country. As mentioned above, to become a neutralist country, the "complete withdrawal of U.S. troops" is the way to go.
NEWS 【事實關係】
TBS 為日本國內訂做反俄假新聞-偷運和回收西方假新聞
在香港，西方假新聞是直接或透過台灣媒體後轉載和轉播，還看不到為這個地區度身訂造的反俄假新聞。不過，日本的TBS專門搞這種事（回收和重拍西方假新聞）。在2022年8月14日TBS發佈了8名烏克蘭領土防衛隊在144 Yablunska Street當場處決云云的假新聞。其實，這是紐約時報在2022年5月19日發布過的新聞翻版。有幾個重點：
1.TBS並沒有註明來源。
2.在紐約時報報導中，3月4日路上監視器片段切至3月5日144 Yablunska Street處決場景。然而，TBS報導中，當天發生這一切。其時間順序被改動了。
3.在紐約時報報導中，3月4日路上監視器片段顯示，8名人士，但在三個人身上的腕帶帶有被塗色編輯的痕跡，水窪上的隊友人影都很大，然而，TBS報導中，衣服不同，甚至水窪上的人影幾乎都沒有。明顯是假裝同一片段的不同片段。後者是重拍的。