Updated: Dec 1, 2022
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
“ … I praised you [Elon Musk]as so many did for those acts. But should good deeds purchase immunity for later bad ones, or should every act and statement be judged on its merits? Should Ukrainians who thanked you for Starlink be silent when you spread Kremlin talking points against them?” - Garry Kasparov
捕錯殺錯(Catching the Wrong and Killing the Wrong) ： 唯獨草率從事，若錯殺了人，則影響很壞。請你們對鎮反工作，實行嚴格控制，務必謹慎從事，務必糾正一切草率從事的偏向。我們一定要鎮壓一切反革命，但是一定不可以捕錯殺錯。 - 毛澤東 （1951年3月30日， 引自《毛澤東選集第五卷》，1977年，北京，人民出版社，初版，第43頁）
Anti-war sentiments are now growing in China after the annexation of the 4 parts of Ukraine in the end of September 2022. It’s the fear of being involved in nuclear war. It’s only bad news for Russia. For China, it’s reasonable and a correct ideological response to the looming national security risk at present.
What goes around comes around. Since the end of September, when Russia allowed the war between Russia and Ukraine to escalate ("dangerous escalation"), contrary to the hegemonic/aggressive Russia that "stops war with war", the correct strategic approach of the kingly China to face military provocations from all sides is always to (urge) stop war and seek peace. Russia, the "multi-faceted man", must not be allowed to lead China into the fires of a major European war. This is the main side of the latest information war. Since an escalation of the war in Europe would lead to the possibility of an Indo-Pacific war, the national security of Hong Kong, China, lies in stopping the war and seeking peace (anti-war). The Hong Kong community should continue to speak out for the civilians of Ukraine, the innocent side of peace. Better yet, Ukraine should win against Russia to prove that the old days of nuclear deterrence and hegemony are gone.
From September 30 to October 5, 2022, Russia unilaterally annexed the four eastern regions of Ukraine - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. When signing the decree on October 4, Ukrainian President Zelensky (a true patriot) responded by declaring that it was "impossible" to negotiate with Putin after Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to annex the Ukrainian region. The change in quantity will accumulate to a certain level and then there will be a qualitative change. The war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated irreversibly and has reached a dead end where only war can be used to solve the dispute. This is a major turning point for the clear renewal of the whole strategy and position. Since then, the anti-war orientation of Hong Kong's patriotic media has been revealed since early October (not by external forces, but to some extent reflecting the concerns of patriotic citizens/businesses who fund the media), and the public's anti-war sentiment has been expanding. This is very positive, not anti-Russian or separatist, but entirely in line with China's national security and diplomatic criteria. That is, China should not be involved in Russia's European war and nuclear war. The point is, it has nothing to do with China. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait War, the Sino-Indian border conflict, the Spratly Islands conflict, and the Diaoyutai conflict will all be part of the Second Pacific War (this time, the Indo-Pacific War). Russia, the aggressor country, is recklessly escalating the stage and scale of the war, and Russia's European war will be combined with the Second Pacific War (Indo-Pacific War) by external forces to form the Third World War. The United States itself is certainly not a battlefield. Therefore, the ultimate victory of China, which has resisted all these international provocations, will be to avoid the outbreak of all these military conflicts and continue to develop its economy peacefully. In short, the right strategy for China is to (urge) a cessation of war and peace after October, when Russia deliberately allowed the war to escalate. It should also be in the national security interest of all Hong Kong people who love non-violent pacifism.
The conspiracy theory about war in the Taiwan Strait is easy to refute and can be confirmed as true or false. That is, China's imposition of a total economic blockade on Taiwan is essentially the first step toward forced reunification. The former CIA sources did not mention this. This is the full expression of the nationalist will without regard to the economy. Although the possibility of this is still extremely low. There is no way that one day there will be a surprise attack or missile launch. Moreover, any local can intuitively judge that the country is not creating its war atmosphere and is not asking its citizens to prepare for war. On the contrary, any incitement to war in the Taiwan Strait is discouraged and suppressed. Where is the inclination for armed reunification? Nonsense.
What some so-called 'experts' misunderstand is that if Russia was defeated by Ukraine and the collapse of Putin's regime will definitely lead to China's isolation. On the contrary, even if Putin's United Russia regime completely collapses, it will only mean the exit of Putin's cronies who dominate the system and will be succeeded by pro-China and anti-American opposition parties. The collapse of Putin's regime will not affect China's strategy at all, i.e.,
it will not become a valid reason for China to support Russia militarily. China's greatest national interest at the moment is always to (urge) stop the war and seek peace. The multi-faceted Russia must not be allowed to lead China into the fires of a major European war. Anti-war, this is the main side of the latest information war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of other countries' territories violate international law. If it is reasonable to set up a buffer zone on the periphery, then all countries can annex the periphery. Moreover, it is interesting to note that Russia, which discredits Israel's Zionism, is also an advocate of a national revival movement (see the various claims on Ukrainian territories, such as Crimea and Donbass), and is engaged in forceful territorial changes.
1.俄羅斯的普京政權及其朋黨都是多面人，而不只是兩面人。這包括官媒。如今日俄羅斯RT和衛星通訊社。他們玩耍的是跨意識形態的政宣運作模式（至今成功，是因為其他國家都還不敢採取這個獨特多面人模式），而不是任何國家的單一意識形態（如中國官媒）或折衷主義（如香港01或TVB）。這就是為什麼有右派RT另外同時經營左派Redfish的理由（它們利用傳統左派的形象裝飾，譬如，普京，瑪麗亞·弗拉基米羅芙娜·扎哈羅娃以及整個政權都被打扮得像斯巴達克斯，馬克思，列寧，毛澤東般的反帝革命家形象，然而他們體現的卻是他們自己的朋黨精英們的俄羅斯統治階級利益，而不是奴隸或勞動者階級的階級利益。‘非左派’的他們最拿手的是欺騙，吸引和剝削反帝左派人士。這就是為什麼階級分析是至關重要的）。這些官媒的社交媒體（管理者 / output-editors）積極培養和養殖的不是什麼獨立思考人士（注意：反對西方審查的他們自己甚至打壓或錯殺自己陣營的異見人士 ；‘捕錯殺錯’真的發生），而是一堆政治化的trolls（有象無象的，政治化，激進化的烏合之眾，如黑暴般的網路暴民）。這叫做troll farms（政治化，喪屍化網路暴民的農場；巨魔養殖場）。西方媒體和情報機構就這點看得準確無誤。只要看它們頻道或網站的留言欄，就會一目了然。無需特地引用。這是合乎精英主義策略的。俄羅斯官媒的一大缺點正是他們曾來不把社會當作真正對等的對話夥伴。朋黨教導和照顧人民的從上而下的精英主義觀點本身早就是嚴重違背民主和媒體自由的，其背景就是社會權力的巨大貧富差距，吊鐘式社會權力結構的反映。不過，不得不承認的是俄羅斯媒體報導的記事和視頻本身都有不可忽視的品質。
3.統一俄羅斯黨是多面人的朋黨政治（經歷葉利欽政權的，曾從內部瓦解蘇聯的元共產黨官僚們的自然延續），而本身絕不是反美。在野黨才是真正反美的。如最大在野黨俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（Communist Party of the Russian Federation）以及極右派的俄羅斯自由民主黨（Liberal Democratic Party of Russia）。
There are several features of the Russian political scene.
1.Russia's Putin regime and its cronies are multi-faceted, not just two-faced. This includes the official state media, such as RT and Sputnik. They play with a cross-ideological model of political propaganda (so far successful because no other country dares to adopt this unique multi-faceted model yet), rather than any country's single ideology (like the Chinese official media) or eclecticism (like HK01 or TVB). This is the reason why there is rightist RT that additionally run leftist Redfish (they use the traditional leftist image to decorate, for example, Putin, Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova and the entire regime dressed up as Spartacus, Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong-like anti-imperialist revolutionaries, yet they embody their own crony elites of Russia). The interests of the ruling class, not the class interests of the slave or working class. The 'non-leftists' were best at deceiving, attracting and exploiting anti-imperialist leftists. (This is why class analysis is so important). The social media (moderators/output-editors) of these official social media actively cultivate and breed not independent thinkers (note: they themselves oppose Western censorship yet even suppress or wrongly kill dissidents and different voices from their own camp; 'wrongdoing' really happens), but a bunch of politicized trolls ( The trolls are zombified, politicized, radicalized rabble, like an 'anti-Extradition Bill Amendment' mob). It is called troll farms (farms of politicized, zombified cyber mobs+bots). The Western media and intelligence agencies see this accurately. Just look at the commentary of their channels or websites and you'll see it at a glance. No need for special quotes. This is in line with elitist strategy. One of the major shortcomings of the Russian media is that they have never treated society as a real and equal partner in dialogue. The top-down elitist view of cronyism, which teaches and takes care of the people, has long been a serious violation of democracy and media freedom, against the backdrop of the huge gap between the rich and the poor in social power, a reflection of 'the hanging bell' social power structure. However, it has to be admitted that Russian media reports and videos themselves have qualities that cannot be ignored.
2.The United Russia is close to the Republican Party of the United States and the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. Putin's regime is a right-wing conservative but at the same time neoliberal cronyism/corporatism that boasts 'anti-neoliberalism (specifically means anti-US Democrats)'. The term cronyism is most appropriate. From the president to the editor-in-chief of the official media to the judges, all belong to their own cronies. In other words, this so-called elitism (the same cronies who occupy public/key positions) is similar to Hong Kong's crony politics.
3.The United Russia is a multi-faceted crony politics (a natural continuation of the ex-communist bureaucrats who and dismantled the Soviet Union from within and went through the Yeltsin regime), and is in no way anti-American per se. On the contrary, the opposition parties are really anti-American. The largest opposition parties are the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the far-right Liberal Democratic Party of Russia.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated to a war between Russia and Europe and the United States. After Russia invaded and annexed four regions of Ukraine in the pursuit of a buffer zone around it, there is no way out. There is an unexplained question about the civilian population in the Donbass region, namely, why Russia has not evacuated all ethnic Russians to Russia since 2014, especially during the civil unrest from February 23 to May 22, 2014? Even after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, only partial evacuations were carried out, at a sluggish pace, and not all civilians in the war zone were evacuated. Even Russian civilians were allowed to return to areas that are still part of the war zone, such as Mariupol. This is completely confusing. Admittedly, there are more ways to avoid war than we can imagine. For example, evacuating all Russian civilians without annexing Ukrainian territory is also a possible way. Unfortunately, the justice lies with the annexed Ukraine, not with the overbearing Russia that is bent on having its own way.
Why? At a time when the world is experiencing the worst financial crisis in history since 2001 (the U.S. Dow is down 17% from April to September, and the global stock market value is down $24 trillion from $110 trillion at the end of March 2022. After the Lehman shock (2008), it surpassed the March 2009 drop of $11 trillion, the largest since 2001), the Russian official social media repeatedly made fun of Europe and the US suffering from the energy crisis and inflation. In other words, the innocent working class and their families around the world, sacrificed to glorify the annexation of four regions, are made a mockery of the internet mob. It is easy to understand what the problem is, namely that everyone is not a Saudi king. Every family is not Putin's family. The elites who play the game of international politics the most are not the first to suffer, rather, they are the safest. The consequences of the policies implemented by the so-called political leaders are the most damaging to the lives of ordinary people. This kind of politicization/radicalization is the most foolish and immoral, which only looks at politics and ignores people's livelihood. Politics/economy is originally for the people's livelihood. However, politics that sacrifices people's livelihood is wrong. The cart is put before the horse. Bullying Russia still does not understand this.
2.FSB用女間諜引誘和逮捕日本領事一事的意義。2022年9月26日日本在海參崴 (Vladivostok)領事館的領事Motoka Tatsunori被驅除出境一事，前外務省情報分析官佐藤優引述俄羅斯聯邦委員會（上院）主席馬特維延科的話語把它解讀為俄方擴大爭端是為了警惕日方。不過，此時最準確的是其官媒的最後輸出方式。從衛星通訊社的報導中，也沒有警惕的意涵，而只有對所謂間諜活動的抗議/譴責。擴大爭端的結局是2022年10月4日「日本政府宣布，俄羅斯駐札幌總領事館的一名領事是不受歡迎人物，要求此人在6天內離境，也就是截至10月10日為止。」換言之，俄方擴大爭端的結局只擴大了爭端。即日本方面直接報復了，「以回應俄方作法」。情報分析是要看對方最後輸出的方式。（https://hk.news.yahoo.com/報復外交官被驅逐-日本下令俄領事離境-133501497.html）
3.RT和衛星通訊社都隱瞞平克·佛洛伊德（Pink Floyd）創始人羅渣·禾達士（George Roger Waters）對普京的信(https://sports.yahoo.com/roger-waters-pens-letter-vladimir-114547512.html)。羅渣·禾達士（George Roger Waters）在2022年9月25日的公開信中，勸告普京立刻止戰，然而，俄羅斯的兩大官媒都避免報導它了。反而，只報導了他批判拜登的言論。俄羅斯官媒，在戰事愈轉壞，愈露骨地操縱輿論。其報導明顯是各取所需的，片面的。反映了俄方陣營內的政治審查也隨著戰事轉壞，逐漸縮緊了。雖俄羅斯及其朋黨官媒最譴責政治審查，但俄羅斯自己如此對敵我進行與西方一摸一樣的政治審查。賊喊捉賊。俄方傳播方式有一個重要特點，那就是總是反應遲鈍，錯失時效性，是因為一直想故事，而不直接回應人民對事實的需求。人家想要知道的其實很簡單，即到底在前線在發生什麼。人民是要掌握整個前線狀況的，而不是過濾過的大本營報導。
There are several incidents worth mentioning.
1.Russia made the mistake of typical 'catching and killing wrongly' its own people even during 'partial military mobilization'. According to the results of the Rybar poll published on October 5, only 4% of the recruited Russians had no problems with the partial recruitment process. 96% of them thought there were problems. The consequences of wrongful recruitment ('catching and killing the wrong') are more deadly than any political or psychological warfare, and the Russians themselves have ruined the morale of their citizens. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a partial mobilization decree on September 21, expecting 300,000 citizens to be drafted to fight in the war, and announced that the service would be extended indefinitely until the end of the "partial military mobilization", which sparked global concern and a wave of desertions. The recruiting process has been described as absurd, with recruiters visiting the homes of those recruited, but one of the men died in 2020 after a long illness. (https://tw.news.yahoo.com/死人也列入徵召名單-俄男被迫入伍-先喝爛醉-直接躺平-073543535.html) Not only was the dead man wrongly recruited, but so were the disabled, sick and other people unfit for military service. Many Russians have complained to RT, so it's not fake news that they were wrongly recruited. Even now, there are reports that enlisted men have been abandoned by their commanders. 'Wrongly recruited' is also an example of 'wrongly caught and wrongly killed'. The consequence is just as severe a blow and loss of morale in one's own camp. This is more effective than any enemy political propaganda. It seems that the human factor is more important than the institutional factor in this issue. The cronies are also a human factor.
2.The significance of the FSB's use of a female spy to lure and arrest the Japanese consul, Motoka Tatsunori, who was expelled from the Japanese consulate in Vladivostok on September 26, 2022, was interpreted by former Foreign Ministry intelligence analyst Masaru Sato, quoting the chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house), Valentina Matviyenko, as saying that the Russian side was expanding the dispute in order to alert Japan. However, what is most accurate at this point is the final output of its official media. From the Sputnik's report, there is no sense of caution either, but only protest/condemnation of the so-called espionage. The end of the extended dispute was that on October 4, 2022 "the Japanese government announced that a consul of the Russian Consulate General in Sapporo is an unwelcome person and asked him to leave the country within six days, that is, until October 10. In other words, the Russian side has only widened the end of the dispute. In other words, the Japanese side responded directly, "in response to the Russian approach". Intelligence analysis depends on the way the other side finally outputs. (https://hk.news.yahoo.com/報復外交官被驅逐-日本下令俄領事離境-133501497.html)
3.Both RT and Sputnik concealed a letter from Pink Floyd founder George Roger Waters to Putin (https://sports.yahoo.com/roger-waters-pens-letter-vladimir- 114547512.html). In an open letter dated September 25, 2022, George Roger Waters advised Putin to stop the war immediately, however, the two major Russian official media avoided reporting it. Instead, only his criticism of Biden was reported. The Russian official media, the worse the war gets, the more blatantly they manipulate public opinion. Their reporting is clearly one-sided. This reflects the fact that political censorship in the Russian camp has been gradually tightened as the war has turned worse. Although Russia and its crony official media condemn Western political censorship, Russia itself conducts exactly the same political censorship of its enemies as the West. The thief cries out for help. One important feature of Russian communication is that it is always unresponsive and not time-sensitive, because it keeps trying to tell stories instead of responding directly to people's need for facts. What people want to know is very simple: what is happening on the front line. The people want to know the entire frontline situation, not filtered reports from the Headquarter.
To add, the pro-Russian atmosphere is more likely to be transformed into a pro-war atmosphere in China itself. This is dangerous. Even the qualitative change to the war system may be the cause of the eventual overthrow of the whole system.
克里姆林宮發言人德米特裡·佩斯科夫對記者們說，俄羅斯將等到澤連斯基改變想法或者烏克蘭有新總統上任。 與此同時，白宮表示美國總統喬·拜登與澤連斯基通話時向他保證“美國永遠不會承認俄羅斯號稱的對烏克蘭領土的兼併”。 拜登還說，美國做好了準備，讓任何支持俄羅斯吞併烏克蘭領土主張的“個人、實體或國家”承受“嚴厲代價”。 此外，拜登還對澤連斯基說，美國正在向基輔方面送去又一批6.25億美元的武器裝備，幫助烏克蘭抵抗俄羅斯歷時七個月的入侵，這使2021年1月拜登上任以來美國對烏克蘭的武器援助總額超過了175億美元。 星期二早些時候，俄羅斯議會上院聯邦會議投票宣佈烏克蘭四個州為俄羅斯的一部分，將兼併程序繼續向前推進。烏克蘭及其西方盟友譴責俄羅斯宣佈吞併烏克蘭領土，聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯稱這是“危險的升級”，“沒有法律價值”。 俄羅斯議會下院國家杜馬已經批准了兼併。在此之前，俄羅斯在俄軍佔領的四個烏克蘭地區組織了莫斯科所宣稱的公投。 烏克蘭說，投票是在脅迫的情形下進行的，並不代表頓涅茨克、盧甘斯克、扎波羅熱和赫爾鬆四州的民意。 古特雷斯上星期說：“一國的領土被另一國因武力威脅或使用武力而吞併，是對聯合國憲章原則和國際法的違反。” 雖然俄羅斯繼續推動宣稱兼併烏克蘭領土的程序，但是烏軍在俄控區展開的反攻取得了戰果。
Only 4% have no questions about mobilization.
Unlike official propaganda, reality is just like this. They’re wrongly annoying own people and supporters in various fields. It’s not only limited in mobilization.
📊🇬🇧🇺🇦 All-Russian survey on the attitude of citizens to partial mobilization: personal attitude and problems Also, our social survey touched upon the personal attitude of respondents to the problems of partial mobilization. ▪️Only 4% have no questions about mobilization. That is, the vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with neither the explanatory work by the Ministry of Defense, nor the practical steps taken to implement the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. ▪️Most of all complaints are against the military registration and enlistment offices and the “cane system”, the lack of organization of the process, the negligence of the military commissariats - everything that entails contradictions with the words of the President and the Minister of Defense. ▪️Most of all, according to the respondents, military registration and enlistment offices in the Southern Federal District are “strange”. ▪️The categorical rejection of people is caused by the facts of the seizure of uniforms and equipment purchased with their own money from mobilized items.
People simply want to know what’s happening at the front. Among many, only Rybar team is highly conscious of this Russian information source problem. Another grave problem is that Russian moderators are feeding trolls (radicalizing netizens) because their employers “elitists” don’t see society as a dialogue partner. Different opinions in the pro-Russian side are even suppressed by the state corporatists. They can’t win in this way.
🇺🇦 “A ledge that has no strategic importance” or how the withdrawal of Russian troops from the north-east of the Kherson region is explained Today, Russian troops were forced to retreat from the north-east of the Kherson region. The objective reason is the inability of the existing troops to hold the defensive line due to low staffing and insufficient firepower. We have already discussed the reasons for this. They led to a logical result: the front rolled back to the line Kostromka - Bruskinskoye - Borozenskoye - Mylovoe. We do not even swear at the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense, whose head in today's report did not say a word about this fact. We understand that those military command and control bodies that give the final text remain in their realm and do not care about how the official representative of the Ministry of Defense (and the department itself) looks in the eyes of the world community. But at the level of public opinion leaders, Telegram channels and publics, they tried to give an explanation. It would be better if they didn't. The most stupid excuse that can be given for defeats on the battlefield is to say that some "lands or footholds are not of strategic importance." We do not know who exactly controls the Kherson.ru resource. We do not know who exactly put this message there. To be honest, we sin against representatives of the defense department or retired people from there. But this is so, our idle conjectures. To say that the Krivoy Rog sector of the front, which was occupied back in February-March, was a “suitcase without a handle” can be a very ... narrow-minded person. Not only is it part of the Kherson region - the territory of the Russian Federation - it is also relatively convenient because of the Ingulets River in the west, covering the left flank, and the Dnieper River on the right flank. The Kryvyi Rih sector of the front was important for the development of the offensive against Nikopol (in order to secure Energodar) and Krivoy Rog as a symbol city (at least in the eyes of the local population, this is Zelensky’s hometown). Yes, the authors are right: now, at the cost of regroupings, time is redeemed in order to put new replenishments into operation. There will be a counteroffensive - if fundamental decisions are made to change tactics and strategy. But in the battles in the north-east of the Kherson region, dozens of Russian soldiers laid down their lives, having gone into immortality. And now their comrades-in-arms are told that this is all for the sake of a "suitcase without a handle." This is a spit in the soul of all the units that fought for months in Arkhangelsk, Knyazevka, Olgino, Vysokopole, Potemkino, Novovoznesensk, Mirolyubovka, Petrovka, ZolotoyBalka. You can never talk about this. It demoralizes the troops. This makes people lose faith that everything was not in vain.
[If] war is Beijing’s plan, there ought to be reliable indications that it is coming.
To prepare for a military operation against Taiwan, the Chinese government would have to take certain steps that simply cannot be kept secret from the West – and there is currently no sign of them, former CIA official John Culver argued on Monday.
“If China decides to fight a war of choice over Taiwan, strategic surprise would be a casualty of the sheer scale of the undertaking,”he wrote in an article published by the think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Culver retired from the CIA in 2020 and has written extensively about China as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
原文網址：坦言集：俄羅斯若敗-陳文鴻 研究所所長 | on.cc東網 | 評論 LINK
Moscow voiced protest to Tokyo and the diplomat was declared a persona non grata. He was ordered to leave the country in 48 hours.
"On September 26, the Minister-Counselor of the Japanese Embassy in Moscow was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry, and was informed that for activities incompatible with the status of a consular official and detrimental to Russia's security interests, the consul of the Japanese Consulate General in Vladivostok had been declared persona non grata and must leave the Russian Federation within 48 hours," the ministry said in a statement. A strong protest was expressed to the Japanese side in connection with the actions of the employee of the Consulate General and a note of the corresponding content was handed over to him, the ministry added.
Sputnik didn’t mention Roger’s recent letter to Putin.
The singer chastised US President Joe Biden as a “war criminal” in August, arguing that he is “fuelling the fire” in Ukraine as Russia continues its special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify the country. Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters has told the US monthly Rolling Stone that he believes America to be the greatest evil in the world.
Addressing Putin directly, Waters asked: “Would you like to see an end to this war? If you were to reply and say, ‘Yes please.’ That would immediately make things a lot easier. If you were to come out and say, ‘Also the Russian Federation has no further territorial interest beyond the security of the Russian speaking populations of The Crimea, Donetsk and Lubansk [sic].’ That would help too.”
This disclosed information war manual perfectly explains why Ukrainian propaganda is superior in efficiency. What is a typical problem of Russian information sources? After 8months, I agree with Rybar. This problem is due to corporatism (neoliberal elitism) in the establishment.
“The only way to eliminate the pernicious informational influence of the enemy is to begin to perceive society as a dialogue partner.”
🇺🇦🖇 About the peculiarities of information work in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the disposal of Rybar's team were instructions on public relations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which regulate PR and dialogue between society and the Ukrainian army. After studying the document, several conclusions can be drawn: ▪️ One of the main principles of instructions is efficiency and coordination. That is, if there is a request from society to cover some issues, then it is necessary to tell as soon as possible within the limits of what is permitted. And do it consistently. ▪️The document emphasizes the need for flexibility and adaptability, the ability of speakers to adapt to the audience, take into account its mood and needs. ▪️In itself, the appearance of such a document indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine pay great attention to PR and dialogue with society. After all, the course of mobilization and motivation of servicemen depends on this. ▪️There are no real and bright findings in the instructions that would be incomprehensible to a more or less experienced PR or media specialist. Most of the theses are spelled out in the spirit of "for all the good against all the bad." This once again confirms that the possibilities of Ukrainian propaganda are often exaggerated on our part. 🔻 The Russian side in all law enforcement agencies, of course, has similar documents. And there, too, beautiful true words are written. But efficiency is often sacrificed: the coordination of a particular plot takes several days. By this time, the news feed is already losing its relevance regarding the operational situation. As a result, the audience is more likely to focus on information from bloggers who simply respond faster to requests and cover events on the front. And because of the information vacuum, people have to rely on information from the Ukrainian side. The only way to eliminate the pernicious informational influence of the enemy is to begin to perceive society as a dialogue partner.
Look, ‘canonship-free’ Russian media censored undesirable information on the exchanges of POWs on September 21, 2022. Immediately, after the publication of partial mobilization on the same day, this information was almost hidden from the Russian public’s focus, and the undesirable impact was minimized by it deliberately.
KYIV, Ukraine — The morning of Thursday, Sept. 22, was unusually quiet at the top of Kruhlouniversytetska Street in central Kyiv. Nearly every day for the past four months, a dozen or more protesters gathered here at the edge of a military checkpoint just a few blocks from Ukraine’s presidential administration building. Mostly women, the protesters often brought their children. Together, they held signs that said such things as, “Free Mariupol Defenders,” “Daddy, I love you and I wait for you,” and “Return my brother from captivity.”
Rain or shine, these protesters — the family members of Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russia during the battle of Mariupol — brought along a portable stereo system and blasted a playlist of Ukrainian rock and rap songs for hours on end. The music disrupted the typically quiet ambiance of this mainly residential street atop a downtown hill. Even so, the soldiers manning the nearby checkpoint, normally intolerant of any unruly behavior, never interfered.
When the protesters didn’t arrive on Thursday morning, the unbroken quiet loudly declared a break in their four-month-long vigil. The previous evening, Russia had released 215 Ukrainian prisoners of war, including 188 soldiers who fought in Mariupol, 124 officers, three pregnant women, and 108 members of the Azov Regiment. The freed prisoners of war also included 10 foreign nationals who served in Ukraine’s armed forces.
🇬🇧🇺🇦🇹🇷 Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak visited Ankara, where he met with Erdogan's adviser Ibrahim Kalin. According to media reports, Yermak thanked the Turkish representative for his help in the exchange of prisoners. He also expressed hope that the Turkish side will continue to provide support in resolving this issue. That is, in the future we should expect new exchanges of prisoners. Naturally, it is beneficial for Erdogan to be an intermediary in communication between representatives of Russia and Ukraine. But here it is worth paying attention to the fact that, first of all, reputational "buns" are received by Ukraine and Turkey. But not Russia. Due to a strange informational approach, they are trying to hide the exchanges of prisoners as if it were something shameful. In Ukraine, the return of prisoners is a truly solemn event that raises the spirit of society and the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In case of further exchanges, which, apparently, will take place, I would like to hope that the curators of information work will not make past mistakes.
"The lists have been drawn up; we don't need you." A number of military registration and enlistment offices refuse to take volunteers to participate in the SVO. RT receives daily complaints about the erroneous call-up as part of partial mobilization. At the same time, volunteers who are ready to go to the front complain that they are not taken, and this happens without objective reasons. 24-year-old Magomed from Moscow asked three times to mobilize him. In March, he was told that they did not recruit volunteers at all, for the second time they said that they did not take them without military experience, and for the third time they referred to the staffing of the lists. Another resident of the capital received a call from the military enlistment office of Uryupinsk, where he is registered, and was told that he needed to come to the place with things for mobilization. “We drove 700 km from Moscow, and when we got there, they simply turned him around at the military registration and enlistment office and did not even want to sign a contract. The notice was withdrawn. The husband has a great desire to repay his debt to the Motherland. He is 26 years old, category A, he served in motorized rifle troops, specializing as a grenade launcher, ” says the volunteer’s wife.
🇬🇧 Vladimir Solovyov @SolovievLive writes that the military prosecutor's office has already begun an investigation into the appeal of mobilized military personnel who were abandoned by their commanders. And this is a signal, first of all, to commanders, military commissariats and officials who allowed this situation to happen. Now the time has passed when it was possible to “hush up” such cases. Yes, of course, there is always a possibility that everything is far from it. But for this, there are law enforcement agencies that should deal with such cases.
⚡️⚡️ No one expected big fighting. From the very beginning, the operation in Ukraine was seen as limited. But it turned out that full-fledged battles began from the very first weeks. Ukraine has been preparing for this in full for many years. In Russia, they fought for a professional army for many years, although specialists know that a professional army is good for local conflicts. The hope of getting by with volunteers did not work. We need conscious mobilization. Failure brings out emotions. The people want blood, the people want someone to answer. Only now we need not populist decisions, but a sober analysis. Otherwise, everything will turn into Makhnovshchina. And you can't treat our people like "cannon fodder". It is important to train the mobilized well and fill the military formations in the Donbass with them. This will shorten the time until tactical failures occur. We must wait a couple of months until the mobilized turn into normal units and go into battle. At the same time, social control is important. At the front, he is supported by war correspondents to guard. It is on their information, their reports that society crawls this difficult period, - military expert Vladislav Shurygin
The situation has changed by 180 degrees after Russia was bent on escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine on September 30, 2022. What goes around comes around. The main side of the current information war is to stop the war and seek peace. In the face of provocations from all sides and the international political situation, China must not be led by Russia into the European war and must avoid the risk of being drawn into the Indo-Pacific war (the Taiwan Strait war is only the trigger). In short, an anti-war/neutral stance is the best for China/Hong Kong's national security and social rationality. When looking at domestic and foreign politics, the most innocent civilians must always be at the forefront of their minds.
Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favour of fair use.