Hong Kong Intelligence Report #83 止戰求和：中國絕不該被俄國捲入歐美大戰
Updated: Dec 1, 2022
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
“ … I praised you [Elon Musk]as so many did for those acts. But should good deeds purchase immunity for later bad ones, or should every act and statement be judged on its merits? Should Ukrainians who thanked you for Starlink be silent when you spread Kremlin talking points against them?” - Garry Kasparov
捕錯殺錯(Catching the Wrong and Killing the Wrong) ： 唯獨草率從事，若錯殺了人，則影響很壞。請你們對鎮反工作，實行嚴格控制，務必謹慎從事，務必糾正一切草率從事的偏向。我們一定要鎮壓一切反革命，但是一定不可以捕錯殺錯。 - 毛澤東 （1951年3月30日， 引自《毛澤東選集第五卷》，1977年，北京，人民出版社，初版，第43頁）
IMPORTANT 【重要】
Anti-war sentiments are now growing in China after the annexation of the 4 parts of Ukraine in the end of September 2022. It’s the fear of being involved in nuclear war. It’s only bad news for Russia. For China, it’s reasonable and a correct ideological response to the looming national security risk at present.
物極必反。從俄國讓俄烏戰事升級的9月底（“危險的升級”）後，與「以戰止戰」的霸道/侵略國俄羅斯正相反，走王道的中國面對各方軍事挑釁的正確戰略方針始終則是（敦促）止戰求和。絕不能讓「多面人」俄羅斯將中國帶進歐美大戰的戰火中。這是最新的信息戰的主要面了。由於歐洲大戰的升級就會導致印度洋-太平洋大戰的可能性，因此，中國香港的國家安全在於止戰求和（反戰）。香港社會應當繼續為烏克蘭平民，此和平無辜的一方發聲。最好，烏克蘭打贏俄羅斯，以證實核阻嚇的舊時代以及霸道已一去不復返。
What goes around comes around. Since the end of September, when Russia allowed the war between Russia and Ukraine to escalate ("dangerous escalation"), contrary to the hegemonic/aggressive Russia that "stops war with war", the correct strategic approach of the kingly China to face military provocations from all sides is always to (urge) stop war and seek peace. Russia, the "multi-faceted man", must not be allowed to lead China into the fires of a major European war. This is the main side of the latest information war. Since an escalation of the war in Europe would lead to the possibility of an Indo-Pacific war, the national security of Hong Kong, China, lies in stopping the war and seeking peace (anti-war). The Hong Kong community should continue to speak out for the civilians of Ukraine, the innocent side of peace. Better yet, Ukraine should win against Russia to prove that the old days of nuclear deterrence and hegemony are gone.
從2022年9月30日起至10月5日，俄羅斯片面併吞烏克蘭四個東部地區頓涅茨克（Donetsk）、盧甘斯克（Luhansk）、扎波羅熱（Zaporizhzhia）和赫爾松（Kherson）了。烏克蘭總統澤連斯基（真正的愛國者）在10月4日簽署法令時，就回應說：宣佈在俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京企圖吞併烏克蘭地區之後，已經“不可能”與普京談判。物極必反，量的變化累積到一定程度時就會有質變。俄烏戰事不可逆轉地升級了，也陷入了只能以戰爭解決爭端的死胡同了。糾纏不清，這就是明確更新整個戰略和立場的重大轉折點。從此之後，十月初已開始香港愛國媒體的反戰方針顯露（背後不是有外部勢力，而某種程度反映了有愛國市民/資助媒體的商界的擔憂），市民的反戰情緒也不斷擴大。這是十分正面的，並不是什麼反俄或分裂主義，而完全是合乎中國國家安全和外交準則的民情。止戰求和，秉持獨立自主的中立，站在和平的立場。即中國絕不該被俄國的歐美大戰和核戰捲入其中了。重點是，與中國毫無關係。此外，台海戰爭與中印邊境衝突，南沙群島衝突，釣魚台衝突都將會是第二次太平洋戰爭（這次是印度洋-太平洋戰爭）的內容。侵略國俄羅斯不顧一切一昧升級戰爭的階段和規模，俄羅斯的歐洲大戰也會被外部勢力與第二次太平洋戰爭（印度洋-太平洋戰爭）必然結合起來形成第三次世界大戰。美國本身當然不會是個戰場。因此之故，忍住這一切國際挑釁的中國的最終勝利就會是避免這些所有軍事衝突爆發而繼續和平發展經濟。簡言之，從霸道俄國蓄意讓戰事升級的十月後，中國正確的戰略還是（敦促）止戰求和。止戰求和也應該是愛護非暴力和平主義的香港全民的國家安全利益。
From September 30 to October 5, 2022, Russia unilaterally annexed the four eastern regions of Ukraine - Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. When signing the decree on October 4, Ukrainian President Zelensky (a true patriot) responded by declaring that it was "impossible" to negotiate with Putin after Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to annex the Ukrainian region. The change in quantity will accumulate to a certain level and then there will be a qualitative change. The war between Russia and Ukraine has escalated irreversibly and has reached a dead end where only war can be used to solve the dispute. This is a major turning point for the clear renewal of the whole strategy and position. Since then, the anti-war orientation of Hong Kong's patriotic media has been revealed since early October (not by external forces, but to some extent reflecting the concerns of patriotic citizens/businesses who fund the media), and the public's anti-war sentiment has been expanding. This is very positive, not anti-Russian or separatist, but entirely in line with China's national security and diplomatic criteria. That is, China should not be involved in Russia's European war and nuclear war. The point is, it has nothing to do with China. Moreover, the Taiwan Strait War, the Sino-Indian border conflict, the Spratly Islands conflict, and the Diaoyutai conflict will all be part of the Second Pacific War (this time, the Indo-Pacific War). Russia, the aggressor country, is recklessly escalating the stage and scale of the war, and Russia's European war will be combined with the Second Pacific War (Indo-Pacific War) by external forces to form the Third World War. The United States itself is certainly not a battlefield. Therefore, the ultimate victory of China, which has resisted all these international provocations, will be to avoid the outbreak of all these military conflicts and continue to develop its economy peacefully. In short, the right strategy for China is to (urge) a cessation of war and peace after October, when Russia deliberately allowed the war to escalate. It should also be in the national security interest of all Hong Kong people who love non-violent pacifism.
有關台海戰事的陰謀論，這是容易反駁的，也完全可以確認真假的。即中國大陸對台灣實施全面經濟封鎖是武統的第一步。前CIA人士並沒提及這點。這才是不顧經濟，而只顧民族主義意志的全面表達。這可能性現在還是極低的。絕不可能有一天突然襲擊或發射飛彈。此外，任何當地人都可以直覺判斷，即目前國家都並沒有營造其戰爭氣氛，並沒有要求市民備戰。反而，任何煽動台海戰爭的都被嫌棄和壓制的。哪有武統傾向？胡說八道。
有些所謂‘專家’誤解的是俄國被烏克蘭打敗，而普京政權瓦解必定會導致中國孤立。相反，即使普京的統一俄羅斯黨政權完全瓦解，也只意味著霸佔體制的普京朋黨的退場，會有親中反美在野黨接續。普京政權的瓦解根本不會影響中國的戰略，也就是根本不會變成中國該軍事支援俄國的合理理由。中國目前的最大國家利益始終都在於（敦促）止戰求和。絕不能讓多面人俄羅斯將中國帶進歐美大戰的戰火中。反戰，這是最新的信息戰的主要面了。在俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭和吞併他國領土的舉措違反國際法。若要在周邊設置緩衝區是合理的，那所有國家則都可以吞併周邊國家地區了。此外，有趣的是抹黑以色列錫安主義（猶太國復古主義）的俄國本身也是復古主義（看對烏克蘭領土的種種主張，如克里米亞及頓巴斯）的，搞武力領土變更的。
The conspiracy theory about war in the Taiwan Strait is easy to refute and can be confirmed as true or false. That is, China's imposition of a total economic blockade on Taiwan is essentially the first step toward forced reunification. The former CIA sources did not mention this. This is the full expression of the nationalist will without regard to the economy. Although the possibility of this is still extremely low. There is no way that one day there will be a surprise attack or missile launch. Moreover, any local can intuitively judge that the country is not creating its war atmosphere and is not asking its citizens to prepare for war. On the contrary, any incitement to war in the Taiwan Strait is discouraged and suppressed. Where is the inclination for armed reunification? Nonsense.
What some so-called 'experts' misunderstand is that if Russia was defeated by Ukraine and the collapse of Putin's regime will definitely lead to China's isolation. On the contrary, even if Putin's United Russia regime completely collapses, it will only mean the exit of Putin's cronies who dominate the system and will be succeeded by pro-China and anti-American opposition parties. The collapse of Putin's regime will not affect China's strategy at all, i.e.,
it will not become a valid reason for China to support Russia militarily. China's greatest national interest at the moment is always to (urge) stop the war and seek peace. The multi-faceted Russia must not be allowed to lead China into the fires of a major European war. Anti-war, this is the main side of the latest information war. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the annexation of other countries' territories violate international law. If it is reasonable to set up a buffer zone on the periphery, then all countries can annex the periphery. Moreover, it is interesting to note that Russia, which discredits Israel's Zionism, is also an advocate of a national revival movement (see the various claims on Ukrainian territories, such as Crimea and Donbass), and is engaged in forceful territorial changes.
有幾個俄羅斯政壇的特色是：
1.俄羅斯的普京政權及其朋黨都是多面人，而不只是兩面人。這包括官媒。如今日俄羅斯RT和衛星通訊社。他們玩耍的是跨意識形態的政宣運作模式（至今成功，是因為其他國家都還不敢採取這個獨特多面人模式），而不是任何國家的單一意識形態（如中國官媒）或折衷主義（如香港01或TVB）。這就是為什麼有右派RT另外同時經營左派Redfish的理由（它們利用傳統左派的形象裝飾，譬如，普京，瑪麗亞·弗拉基米羅芙娜·扎哈羅娃以及整個政權都被打扮得像斯巴達克斯，馬克思，列寧，毛澤東般的反帝革命家形象，然而他們體現的卻是他們自己的朋黨精英們的俄羅斯統治階級利益，而不是奴隸或勞動者階級的階級利益。‘非左派’的他們最拿手的是欺騙，吸引和剝削反帝左派人士。這就是為什麼階級分析是至關重要的）。這些官媒的社交媒體（管理者 / output-editors）積極培養和養殖的不是什麼獨立思考人士（注意：反對西方審查的他們自己甚至打壓或錯殺自己陣營的異見人士 ；‘捕錯殺錯’真的發生），而是一堆政治化的trolls（有象無象的，政治化，激進化的烏合之眾，如黑暴般的網路暴民）。這叫做troll farms（政治化，喪屍化網路暴民的農場；巨魔養殖場）。西方媒體和情報機構就這點看得準確無誤。只要看它們頻道或網站的留言欄，就會一目了然。無需特地引用。這是合乎精英主義策略的。俄羅斯官媒的一大缺點正是他們曾來不把社會當作真正對等的對話夥伴。朋黨教導和照顧人民的從上而下的精英主義觀點本身早就是嚴重違背民主和媒體自由的，其背景就是社會權力的巨大貧富差距，吊鐘式社會權力結構的反映。不過，不得不承認的是俄羅斯媒體報導的記事和視頻本身都有不可忽視的品質。
2.統一俄羅斯黨親近美國共和黨和日本自民黨。普京政權是個右派保守主義，但同時是標榜‘反新自由主義（反美國民主黨）’的新自由主義朋黨政治/社團主義（corporatism）。朋黨政治一詞最合適。從總統到官媒總編輯到法官都是屬於自己朋黨的。換言之，這所謂精英主義（霸佔公職/要職的都是同一朋黨成員）類似香港的朋黨政治。
3.統一俄羅斯黨是多面人的朋黨政治（經歷葉利欽政權的，曾從內部瓦解蘇聯的元共產黨官僚們的自然延續），而本身絕不是反美。在野黨才是真正反美的。如最大在野黨俄羅斯聯邦共產黨（Communist Party of the Russian Federation）以及極右派的俄羅斯自由民主黨（Liberal Democratic Party of Russia）。
There are several features of the Russian political scene.
1.Russia's Putin regime and its cronies are multi-faceted, not just two-faced. This includes the official state media, such as RT and Sputnik. They play with a cross-ideological model of political propaganda (so far successful because no other country dares to adopt this unique multi-faceted model yet), rather than any country's single ideology (like the Chinese official media) or eclecticism (like HK01 or TVB). This is the reason why there is rightist RT that additionally run leftist Redfish (they use the traditional leftist image to decorate, for example, Putin, Maria Vladimirovna Zakharova and the entire regime dressed up as Spartacus, Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong-like anti-imperialist revolutionaries, yet they embody their own crony elites of Russia). The interests of the ruling class, not the class interests of the slave or working class. The 'non-leftists' were best at deceiving, attracting and exploiting anti-imperialist leftists. (This is why class analysis is so important). The social media (moderators/output-editors) of these official social media actively cultivate and breed not independent thinkers (note: they themselves oppose Western censorship yet even suppress or wrongly kill dissidents and different voices from their own camp; 'wrongdoing' really happens), but a bunch of politicized trolls ( The trolls are zombified, politicized, radicalized rabble, like an 'anti-Extradition Bill Amendment' mob). It is called troll farms (farms of politicized, zombified cyber mobs+bots). The Western media and intelligence agencies see this accurately. Just look at the commentary of their channels or websites and you'll see it at a glance. No need for special quotes. This is in line with elitist strategy. One of the major shortcomings of the Russian media is that they have never treated society as a real and equal partner in dialogue. The top-down elitist view of cronyism, which teaches and takes care of the people, has long been a serious violation of democracy and media freedom, against the backdrop of the huge gap between the rich and the poor in social power, a reflection of 'the hanging bell' social power structure. However, it has to be admitted that Russian media reports and videos themselves have qualities that cannot be ignored.
2.The United Russia is close to the Republican Party of the United States and the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan. Putin's regime is a right-wing conservative but at the same time neoliberal cronyism/corporatism that boasts 'anti-neoliberalism (specifically means anti-US Democrats)'. The term cronyism is most appropriate. From the president to the editor-in-chief of the official media to the judges, all belong to their own cronies. In other words, this so-called elitism (the same cronies who occupy public/key positions) is similar to Hong Kong's crony politics.
3.The United Russia is a multi-faceted crony politics (a natural continuation of the ex-communist bureaucrats who and dismantled the Soviet Union from within and went through the Yeltsin regime), and is in no way anti-American per se. On the contrary, the opposition parties are really anti-American. The largest opposition parties are the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the far-right Liberal Democratic Party of Russia.
俄烏衝突，已升級到俄國和歐美的戰爭了。一昧追求周邊緩衝區的俄國侵略和併吞烏克蘭4個地區之後，毫無後路了。有關頓巴斯地區平民，其實有一個不被解釋的問題，即為何俄羅斯從2014年以來有機會，尤其是2014年2月23日到5月22日的內亂期間，曾來都沒有疏散所有俄裔居民到俄羅斯？即使俄烏衝突爆發以後，也只做部分疏散，其速度也遲鈍，而尚未全數撤離戰區的平民。甚至，讓俄裔平民重新回到仍然屬於戰區的地區，如馬里烏波爾。這完全令人一頭霧水。誠然，避免戰役的方法是比我們的想像有更多種的。例如，疏散所有俄裔平民，而不併吞烏克蘭領土也是可以有過的方法。不幸，正義在遭受併吞的烏克蘭，而不在一意孤行的霸道俄羅斯。
為何？ 正在世界遭遇2001年以來史上最差的金融危機之際（美國道指在4-9月降低了17%，全球股票市值從2022年3月底的110萬億美元減少了24萬億美元。在雷曼衝擊（2008）之後，它超過了2009年3月的11萬億美元的跌幅，這是自2001年以來的最大跌幅），俄羅斯官媒社交媒體一再把苦於能源危機和通膨的歐美當笑料。換言之，為美化併吞4個地區而把犧牲掉的全球無辜的勞動者階級及其家庭當作網路暴民的笑料。大家容易理解這個問題所在，即每一個人都不是沙特王。每個家庭都不是普京的家庭。最玩弄國際政治遊戲的精英們都不是首當其衝的，相反，他們都是最安全的。所謂政治領導人執行的政策後果都是最打擊平民百姓的生活。這種只看政治，不顧民生的政治化/激進化是最愚蠢不道德的。政治/經濟本來都是為了民生。然而，犧牲民生的政治就是錯誤的。本末倒置。霸道俄羅斯仍然不懂這個道理。
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated to a war between Russia and Europe and the United States. After Russia invaded and annexed four regions of Ukraine in the pursuit of a buffer zone around it, there is no way out. There is an unexplained question about the civilian population in the Donbass region, namely, why Russia has not evacuated all ethnic Russians to Russia since 2014, especially during the civil unrest from February 23 to May 22, 2014? Even after the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out, only partial evacuations were carried out, at a sluggish pace, and not all civilians in the war zone were evacuated. Even Russian civilians were allowed to return to areas that are still part of the war zone, such as Mariupol. This is completely confusing. Admittedly, there are more ways to avoid war than we can imagine. For example, evacuating all Russian civilians without annexing Ukrainian territory is also a possible way. Unfortunately, the justice lies with the annexed Ukraine, not with the overbearing Russia that is bent on having its own way.
Why? At a time when the world is experiencing the worst financial crisis in history since 2001 (the U.S. Dow is down 17% from April to September, and the global stock market value is down $24 trillion from $110 trillion at the end of March 2022. After the Lehman shock (2008), it surpassed the March 2009 drop of $11 trillion, the largest since 2001), the Russian official social media repeatedly made fun of Europe and the US suffering from the energy crisis and inflation. In other words, the innocent working class and their families around the world, sacrificed to glorify the annexation of four regions, are made a mockery of the internet mob. It is easy to understand what the problem is, namely that everyone is not a Saudi king. Every family is not Putin's family. The elites who play the game of international politics the most are not the first to suffer, rather, they are the safest. The consequences of the policies implemented by the so-called political leaders are the most damaging to the lives of ordinary people. This kind of politicization/radicalization is the most foolish and immoral, which only looks at politics and ignores people's livelihood. Politics/economy is originally for the people's livelihood. However, politics that sacrifices people's livelihood is wrong. The cart is put before the horse. Bullying Russia still does not understand this.
有幾個值得提及的事件：
1.俄羅斯連「部分軍事動員」時也對自己人犯了‘捕錯殺錯’的錯誤。據10月5日發表的Rybar的民調結果顯示，只有4%的被招兵俄羅斯人對部分招兵過程沒問題。96%都認為有問題。錯誤地徵兵的後果（‘捕錯殺錯’）比任何政宣或心理戰更致命，俄方自己毀掉了國民的士氣。譬如，俄羅斯總統普丁9月21日簽署局部動員令，預計將徵召30萬名預備役公民參戰，並宣布在「部分軍事動員」結束前，役期將被無限期延長，消息曝光後引發全球關注，當地也爆發一陣逃難潮。而招兵過程傳出一起荒謬事件，招募人員前往被徵召者家拜訪，但其中一名男子已於2020年病逝。（https://tw.news.yahoo.com/死人也列入徵召名單-俄男被迫入伍-先喝爛醉-直接躺平-073543535.html）不僅死者被錯誤地招兵，殘障，病人等不適合兵役者也被招錯了。不少俄國人向RT投訴了，因此錯誤招兵一事不是什麼假新聞。甚至，如今有消息指入伍者被指揮官拋棄的狀況。招錯也是‘捕錯殺錯’的例子。其後果是一樣嚴重打擊和喪失自己陣營的民心和士氣。這比任何敵方政宣更有效。看來，有關問題，人為因素多過制度因素。朋黨也是人為因素。
2.FSB用女間諜引誘和逮捕日本領事一事的意義。2022年9月26日日本在海參崴 (Vladivostok)領事館的領事Motoka Tatsunori被驅除出境一事，前外務省情報分析官佐藤優引述俄羅斯聯邦委員會（上院）主席馬特維延科的話語把它解讀為俄方擴大爭端是為了警惕日方。不過，此時最準確的是其官媒的最後輸出方式。從衛星通訊社的報導中，也沒有警惕的意涵，而只有對所謂間諜活動的抗議/譴責。擴大爭端的結局是2022年10月4日「日本政府宣布，俄羅斯駐札幌總領事館的一名領事是不受歡迎人物，要求此人在6天內離境，也就是截至10月10日為止。」換言之，俄方擴大爭端的結局只擴大了爭端。即日本方面直接報復了，「以回應俄方作法」。情報分析是要看對方最後輸出的方式。（https://hk.news.yahoo.com/報復外交官被驅逐-日本下令俄領事離境-133501497.html）
3.RT和衛星通訊社都隱瞞平克·佛洛伊德（Pink Floyd）創始人羅渣·禾達士（George Roger Waters）對普京的信(https://sports.yahoo.com/roger-waters-pens-letter-vladimir-114547512.html)。羅渣·禾達士（George Roger Waters）在2022年9月25日的公開信中，勸告普京立刻止戰，然而，俄羅斯的兩大官媒都避免報導它了。反而，只報導了他批判拜登的言論。俄羅斯官媒，在戰事愈轉壞，愈露骨地操縱輿論。其報導明顯是各取所需的，片面的。反映了俄方陣營內的政治審查也隨著戰事轉壞，逐漸縮緊了。雖俄羅斯及其朋黨官媒最譴責政治審查，但俄羅斯自己如此對敵我進行與西方一摸一樣的政治審查。賊喊捉賊。俄方傳播方式有一個重要特點，那就是總是反應遲鈍，錯失時效性，是因為一直想故事，而不直接回應人民對事實的需求。人家想要知道的其實很簡單，即到底在前線在發生什麼。人民是要掌握整個前線狀況的，而不是過濾過的大本營報導。
There are several incidents worth mentioning.
1.Russia made the mistake of typical 'catching and killing wrongly' its own people even during 'partial military mobilization'. According to the results of the Rybar poll published on October 5, only 4% of the recruited Russians had no problems with the partial recruitment process. 96% of them thought there were problems. The consequences of wrongful recruitment ('catching and killing the wrong') are more deadly than any political or psychological warfare, and the Russians themselves have ruined the morale of their citizens. For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a partial mobilization decree on September 21, expecting 300,000 citizens to be drafted to fight in the war, and announced that the service would be extended indefinitely until the end of the "partial military mobilization", which sparked global concern and a wave of desertions. The recruiting process has been described as absurd, with recruiters visiting the homes of those recruited, but one of the men died in 2020 after a long illness. (https://tw.news.yahoo.com/死人也列入徵召名單-俄男被迫入伍-先喝爛醉-直接躺平-073543535.html) Not only was the dead man wrongly recruited, but so were the disabled, sick and other people unfit for military service. Many Russians have complained to RT, so it's not fake news that they were wrongly recruited. Even now, there are reports that enlisted men have been abandoned by their commanders. 'Wrongly recruited' is also an example of 'wrongly caught and wrongly killed'. The consequence is just as severe a blow and loss of morale in one's own camp. This is more effective than any enemy political propaganda. It seems that the human factor is more important than the institutional factor in this issue. The cronies are also a human factor.
2.The significance of the FSB's use of a female spy to lure and arrest the Japanese consul, Motoka Tatsunori, who was expelled from the Japanese consulate in Vladivostok on September 26, 2022, was interpreted by former Foreign Ministry intelligence analyst Masaru Sato, quoting the chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house), Valentina Matviyenko, as saying that the Russian side was expanding the dispute in order to alert Japan. However, what is most accurate at this point is the final output of its official media. From the Sputnik's report, there is no sense of caution either, but only protest/condemnation of the so-called espionage. The end of the extended dispute was that on October 4, 2022 "the Japanese government announced that a consul of the Russian Consulate General in Sapporo is an unwelcome person and asked him to leave the country within six days, that is, until October 10. In other words, the Russian side has only widened the end of the dispute. In other words, the Japanese side responded directly, "in response to the Russian approach". Intelligence analysis depends on the way the other side finally outputs. (https://hk.news.yahoo.com/報復外交官被驅逐-日本下令俄領事離境-133501497.html)
3.Both RT and Sputnik concealed a letter from Pink Floyd founder George Roger Waters to Putin (https://sports.yahoo.com/roger-waters-pens-letter-vladimir- 114547512.html). In an open letter dated September 25, 2022, George Roger Waters advised Putin to stop the war immediately, however, the two major Russian official media avoided reporting it. Instead, only his criticism of Biden was reported. The Russian official media, the worse the war gets, the more blatantly they manipulate public opinion. Their reporting is clearly one-sided. This reflects the fact that political censorship in the Russian camp has been gradually tightened as the war has turned worse. Although Russia and its crony official media condemn Western political censorship, Russia itself conducts exactly the same political censorship of its enemies as the West. The thief cries out for help. One important feature of Russian communication is that it is always unresponsive and not time-sensitive, because it keeps trying to tell stories instead of responding directly to people's need for facts. What people want to know is very simple: what is happening on the front line. The people want to know the entire frontline situation, not filtered reports from the Headquarter.
(https://hk.news.yahoo.com/報復外交官被驅逐-日本下令俄領事離境-133501497.html)
補充一下，挺俄氣氛比較容易被轉化成中國本身的挺戰氣氛。這是危險的。甚至，嚮往戰爭體制的質變恐會是整個體制最終被推翻的起因。
To add, the pro-Russian atmosphere is more likely to be transformed into a pro-war atmosphere in China itself. This is dangerous. Even the qualitative change to the war system may be the cause of the eventual overthrow of the whole system.
NEWS 【事實關係】
澤連斯基簽法令不與普京談判 拜登與澤連斯基通話宣佈最新軍援
克里姆林宮發言人德米特裡·佩斯科夫對記者們說，俄羅斯將等到澤連斯基改變想法或者烏克蘭有新總統上任。 與此同時，白宮表示美國總統喬·拜登與澤連斯基通話時向他保證“美國永遠不會承認俄羅斯號稱的對烏克蘭領土的兼併”。 拜登還說，美國做好了準備，讓任何支持俄羅斯吞併烏克蘭領土主張的“個人、實體或國家”承受“嚴厲代價”。 此外，拜登還對澤連斯基說，美國正在向基輔方面送去又一批6.25億美元的武器裝備，幫助烏克蘭抵抗俄羅斯歷時七個月的入侵，這使2021年1月拜登上任以來美國對烏克蘭的武器援助總額超過了175億美元。 星期二早些時候，俄羅斯議會上院聯邦會議投票宣佈烏克蘭四個州為俄羅斯的一部分，將兼併程序繼續向前推進。烏克蘭及其西方盟友譴責俄羅斯宣佈吞併烏克蘭領土，聯合國秘書長安東尼奧·古特雷斯稱這是“危險的升級”，“沒有法律價值”。 俄羅斯議會下院國家杜馬已經批准了兼併。在此之前，俄羅斯在俄軍佔領的四個烏克蘭地區組織了莫斯科所宣稱的公投。 烏克蘭說，投票是在脅迫的情形下進行的，並不代表頓涅茨克、盧甘斯克、扎波羅熱和赫爾鬆四州的民意。 古特雷斯上星期說：“一國的領土被另一國因武力威脅或使用武力而吞併，是對聯合國憲章原則和國際法的違反。” 雖然俄羅斯繼續推動宣稱兼併烏克蘭領土的程序，但是烏軍在俄控區展開的反攻取得了戰果。
Only 4% have no questions about mobilization.
Unlike official propaganda, reality is just like this. They’re wrongly annoying own people and supporters in various fields. It’s not only limited in mobilization.
📊🇬🇧🇺🇦 All-Russian survey on the attitude of citizens to partial mobilization: personal attitude and problems Also, our social survey touched upon the personal attitude of respondents to the problems of partial mobilization. ▪️Only 4% have no questions about mobilization. That is, the vast majority of respondents are dissatisfied with neither the explanatory work by the Ministry of Defense, nor the practical steps taken to implement the instructions of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief on partial mobilization in the Russian Federation. ▪️Most of all complaints are against the military registration and enlistment offices and the “cane system”, the lack of organization of the process, the negligence of the military commissariats - everything that entails contradictions with the words of the President and the Minister of Defense. ▪️Most of all, according to the respondents, military registration and enlistment offices in the Southern Federal District are “strange”. ▪️The categorical rejection of people is caused by the facts of the seizure of uniforms and equipment purchased with their own money from mobilized items.
People simply want to know what’s happening at the front. Among many, only Rybar team is highly conscious of this Russian information source problem. Another grave problem is that Russian moderators are feeding trolls (radicalizing netizens) because their employers “elitists” don’t see society as a dialogue partner. Different opinions in the pro-Russian side are even suppressed by the state corporatists. They can’t win in this way.
🇺🇦 “A ledge that has no strategic importance” or how the withdrawal of Russian troops from the north-east of the Kherson region is explained Today, Russian troops were forced to retreat from the north-east of the Kherson region. The objective reason is the inability of the existing troops to hold the defensive line due to low staffing and insufficient firepower. We have already discussed the reasons for this. They led to a logical result: the front rolled back to the line Kostromka - Bruskinskoye - Borozenskoye - Mylovoe. We do not even swear at the Department of Information and Mass Communications of the Ministry of Defense, whose head in today's report did not say a word about this fact. We understand that those military command and control bodies that give the final text remain in their realm and do not care about how the official representative of the Ministry of Defense (and the department itself) looks in the eyes of the world community. But at the level of public opinion leaders, Telegram channels and publics, they tried to give an explanation. It would be better if they didn't. The most stupid excuse that can be given for defeats on the battlefield is to say that some "lands or footholds are not of strategic importance." We do not know who exactly controls the Kherson.ru resource. We do not know who exactly put this message there. To be honest, we sin against representatives of the defense department or retired people from there. But this is so, our idle conjectures. To say that the Krivoy Rog sector of the front, which was occupied back in February-March, was a “suitcase without a handle” can be a very ... narrow-minded person. Not only is it part of the Kherson region - the territory of the Russian Federation - it is also relatively convenient because of the Ingulets River in the west, covering the left flank, and the Dnieper River on the right flank. The Kryvyi Rih sector of the front was important for the development of the offensive against Nikopol (in order to secure Energodar) and Krivoy Rog as a symbol city (at least in the eyes of the local population, this is Zelensky’s hometown). Yes, the authors are right: now, at the cost of regroupings, time is redeemed in order to put new replenishments into operation. There will be a counteroffensive - if fundamental decisions are made to change tactics and strategy. But in the battles in the north-east of the Kherson region, dozens of Russian soldiers laid down their lives, having gone into immortality. And now their comrades-in-arms are told that this is all for the sake of a "suitcase without a handle." This is a spit in the soul of all the units that fought for months in Arkhangelsk, Knyazevka, Olgino, Vysokopole, Potemkino, Novovoznesensk, Mirolyubovka, Petrovka, ZolotoyBalka. You can never talk about this. It demoralizes the troops. This makes people lose faith that everything was not in vain.
[If] war is Beijing’s plan, there ought to be reliable indications that it is coming.
To prepare for a military operation against Taiwan, the Chinese government would have to take certain steps that simply cannot be kept secret from the West – and there is currently no sign of them, former CIA official John Culver argued on Monday.
“If China decides to fight a war of choice over Taiwan, strategic surprise would be a casualty of the sheer scale of the undertaking,”he wrote in an article published by the think-tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Culver retired from the CIA in 2020 and has written extensively about China as a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.
歐洲極大可能會回復到上世紀90年代蘇聯瓦解的情況，當時連較小的南斯拉夫也被分割成多個國家。俄羅斯戰敗，聯邦必然解體，可能也被分裂為多個國家，徹底解組，以防止另一個普京崛起；俄羅斯會被去軍事化、去核武化，一如當年的烏克蘭。
俄羅斯一敗，俄軍撤退，敍利亞便沒法守衞，土耳其與美國將會急急切入，爭奪地盤。以色列也會乘機出擊，打擊黎巴嫩的回教聖戰組織，鎮壓巴勒斯坦的哈馬斯組織。局部戰爭難免，但沒有俄軍介入，反抗會輕易被消滅。為求自保，伊朗必然反撲，但缺核武保護，也沒有俄羅斯對美國的牽制，美國大多數會出兵攻佔伊朗，把敍利亞、伊拉克、伊朗回教什葉派新月形地區勢力掃平，重劃中東疆界，分為多個小國。美國還可以再次在土耳其發動政變，將土耳其改朝換代，進一步或許還要收復阿富汗，進軍中亞各國。
原文網址：坦言集：俄羅斯若敗-陳文鴻 研究所所長 | on.cc東網 | 評論 LINK
一部御用メディアが潮流変化を目論んで弔辞礼賛の世論を喚起するが、まともな感覚を有する国民には何の影響力も発揮しない。
そもそも安倍氏の実績に対しては否定的な評価を下す国民が多数なのだから。
菅弔辞はそのような多様な評価を無視して安倍氏が実行した行政を無批判に礼賛するものでしかなかった。
この状況下で問われるのは野党の対応。
片山：ふつうに考えれば分かりそうなものですが、ウクライナ側の大本営発表を真に受けてしまう。日本人の体質は戦中と変わっていないように思えますね。
佐藤：大本営発表を素直に信じてしまう人も問題ですが、それ以上にウクライナの専門家と自称する解説者やコメンテーターの質は本当にひどい。
本来ならメディアが検証すべきなのでしょうが、それは期待できない。ウクライナ危機では、珍しく朝日新聞から産経新聞までが、すべて同じ論調でした。
片山：それはウクライナ侵攻に限った話ではありません。7月8日に安倍元首相の銃撃殺害事件が起きましたが、翌朝の新聞一面は、朝日から産経まで横並びの見出しが並びましたね。「民主主義」への挑戦、もしくは危機をうたうものがほとんどでした。オウム真理教による一連の事件のときの各紙論調を彷彿とさせます。
佐藤：まったくその通りです。そもそも政治目的がないならテロにはならない。民主主義への脅威という話にどうしてなるのかが理解できません。
Moscow voiced protest to Tokyo and the diplomat was declared a persona non grata. He was ordered to leave the country in 48 hours.
"On September 26, the Minister-Counselor of the Japanese Embassy in Moscow was summoned to the Russian Foreign Ministry, and was informed that for activities incompatible with the status of a consular official and detrimental to Russia's security interests, the consul of the Japanese Consulate General in Vladivostok had been declared persona non grata and must leave the Russian Federation within 48 hours," the ministry said in a statement. A strong protest was expressed to the Japanese side in connection with the actions of the employee of the Consulate General and a note of the corresponding content was handed over to him, the ministry added.
ロシアが在ウラジオストク日本総領事館の領事を拘束した事件について、「ロシアは本件を拡大することで、日露関係をこれ以上悪化させたくないというシグナルも出している」と語った。
佐藤氏は、ロシア連邦院（上院）国際問題委員会の委員長の「同様の事件は、残念ながら、ときどきある。私たちの生活の中の普通のエピソードを話しているのであって、それを世界的な大災害に発展させてはならない」という発言を引用し、「ロシアとしては、この領事が情報の素人であると認識し、入手した情報も日本外務省の区分では『取り扱い注意』（秘密情報ではないが、マスコミ関係者など外部には出さない）程度なので、事態を深刻視してこれ以上騒ぎ立てないということだ」と指摘した。
Sputnik didn’t mention Roger’s recent letter to Putin.
The singer chastised US President Joe Biden as a “war criminal” in August, arguing that he is “fuelling the fire” in Ukraine as Russia continues its special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify the country. Pink Floyd co-founder Roger Waters has told the US monthly Rolling Stone that he believes America to be the greatest evil in the world.
英国出身のミュージシャン、ロジャー・ウォーターズ（79）が、ロシアのプーチン大統領宛ての公開書簡を書き、ウクライナでの「凶悪な戦争」を終わらせるよう求めた。先日は、ウクライナのオレーナ・ゼレンシカ大統領夫人に宛てた2通の公開書簡の中で「虐殺を止める」ためにロシアとの停戦を求めていた。その後紛争の双方へ手紙を書くべきだというコメントを受けた事がきっかけになったようだ。
Addressing Putin directly, Waters asked: “Would you like to see an end to this war? If you were to reply and say, ‘Yes please.’ That would immediately make things a lot easier. If you were to come out and say, ‘Also the Russian Federation has no further territorial interest beyond the security of the Russian speaking populations of The Crimea, Donetsk and Lubansk [sic].’ That would help too.”
This disclosed information war manual perfectly explains why Ukrainian propaganda is superior in efficiency. What is a typical problem of Russian information sources? After 8months, I agree with Rybar. This problem is due to corporatism (neoliberal elitism) in the establishment.
“The only way to eliminate the pernicious informational influence of the enemy is to begin to perceive society as a dialogue partner.”
🇺🇦🖇 About the peculiarities of information work in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. At the disposal of Rybar's team were instructions on public relations in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which regulate PR and dialogue between society and the Ukrainian army. After studying the document, several conclusions can be drawn: ▪️ One of the main principles of instructions is efficiency and coordination. That is, if there is a request from society to cover some issues, then it is necessary to tell as soon as possible within the limits of what is permitted. And do it consistently. ▪️The document emphasizes the need for flexibility and adaptability, the ability of speakers to adapt to the audience, take into account its mood and needs. ▪️In itself, the appearance of such a document indicates that the Armed Forces of Ukraine pay great attention to PR and dialogue with society. After all, the course of mobilization and motivation of servicemen depends on this. ▪️There are no real and bright findings in the instructions that would be incomprehensible to a more or less experienced PR or media specialist. Most of the theses are spelled out in the spirit of "for all the good against all the bad." This once again confirms that the possibilities of Ukrainian propaganda are often exaggerated on our part. 🔻 The Russian side in all law enforcement agencies, of course, has similar documents. And there, too, beautiful true words are written. But efficiency is often sacrificed: the coordination of a particular plot takes several days. By this time, the news feed is already losing its relevance regarding the operational situation. As a result, the audience is more likely to focus on information from bloggers who simply respond faster to requests and cover events on the front. And because of the information vacuum, people have to rely on information from the Ukrainian side. The only way to eliminate the pernicious informational influence of the enemy is to begin to perceive society as a dialogue partner.
Look, ‘canonship-free’ Russian media censored undesirable information on the exchanges of POWs on September 21, 2022. Immediately, after the publication of partial mobilization on the same day, this information was almost hidden from the Russian public’s focus, and the undesirable impact was minimized by it deliberately.
KYIV, Ukraine — The morning of Thursday, Sept. 22, was unusually quiet at the top of Kruhlouniversytetska Street in central Kyiv. Nearly every day for the past four months, a dozen or more protesters gathered here at the edge of a military checkpoint just a few blocks from Ukraine’s presidential administration building. Mostly women, the protesters often brought their children. Together, they held signs that said such things as, “Free Mariupol Defenders,” “Daddy, I love you and I wait for you,” and “Return my brother from captivity.”
Rain or shine, these protesters — the family members of Ukrainian soldiers captured by Russia during the battle of Mariupol — brought along a portable stereo system and blasted a playlist of Ukrainian rock and rap songs for hours on end. The music disrupted the typically quiet ambiance of this mainly residential street atop a downtown hill. Even so, the soldiers manning the nearby checkpoint, normally intolerant of any unruly behavior, never interfered.
When the protesters didn’t arrive on Thursday morning, the unbroken quiet loudly declared a break in their four-month-long vigil. The previous evening, Russia had released 215 Ukrainian prisoners of war, including 188 soldiers who fought in Mariupol, 124 officers, three pregnant women, and 108 members of the Azov Regiment. The freed prisoners of war also included 10 foreign nationals who served in Ukraine’s armed forces.
🇬🇧🇺🇦🇹🇷 Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Andriy Yermak visited Ankara, where he met with Erdogan's adviser Ibrahim Kalin. According to media reports, Yermak thanked the Turkish representative for his help in the exchange of prisoners. He also expressed hope that the Turkish side will continue to provide support in resolving this issue. That is, in the future we should expect new exchanges of prisoners. Naturally, it is beneficial for Erdogan to be an intermediary in communication between representatives of Russia and Ukraine. But here it is worth paying attention to the fact that, first of all, reputational "buns" are received by Ukraine and Turkey. But not Russia. Due to a strange informational approach, they are trying to hide the exchanges of prisoners as if it were something shameful. In Ukraine, the return of prisoners is a truly solemn event that raises the spirit of society and the military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In case of further exchanges, which, apparently, will take place, I would like to hope that the curators of information work will not make past mistakes.
"The lists have been drawn up; we don't need you." A number of military registration and enlistment offices refuse to take volunteers to participate in the SVO. RT receives daily complaints about the erroneous call-up as part of partial mobilization. At the same time, volunteers who are ready to go to the front complain that they are not taken, and this happens without objective reasons. 24-year-old Magomed from Moscow asked three times to mobilize him. In March, he was told that they did not recruit volunteers at all, for the second time they said that they did not take them without military experience, and for the third time they referred to the staffing of the lists. Another resident of the capital received a call from the military enlistment office of Uryupinsk, where he is registered, and was told that he needed to come to the place with things for mobilization. “We drove 700 km from Moscow, and when we got there, they simply turned him around at the military registration and enlistment office and did not even want to sign a contract. The notice was withdrawn. The husband has a great desire to repay his debt to the Motherland. He is 26 years old, category A, he served in motorized rifle troops, specializing as a grenade launcher, ” says the volunteer’s wife.
🇬🇧 Vladimir Solovyov @SolovievLive writes that the military prosecutor's office has already begun an investigation into the appeal of mobilized military personnel who were abandoned by their commanders. And this is a signal, first of all, to commanders, military commissariats and officials who allowed this situation to happen. Now the time has passed when it was possible to “hush up” such cases. Yes, of course, there is always a possibility that everything is far from it. But for this, there are law enforcement agencies that should deal with such cases.
⚡️⚡️ No one expected big fighting. From the very beginning, the operation in Ukraine was seen as limited. But it turned out that full-fledged battles began from the very first weeks. Ukraine has been preparing for this in full for many years. In Russia, they fought for a professional army for many years, although specialists know that a professional army is good for local conflicts. The hope of getting by with volunteers did not work. We need conscious mobilization. Failure brings out emotions. The people want blood, the people want someone to answer. Only now we need not populist decisions, but a sober analysis. Otherwise, everything will turn into Makhnovshchina. And you can't treat our people like "cannon fodder". It is important to train the mobilized well and fill the military formations in the Donbass with them. This will shorten the time until tactical failures occur. We must wait a couple of months until the mobilized turn into normal units and go into battle. At the same time, social control is important. At the front, he is supported by war correspondents to guard. It is on their information, their reports that society crawls this difficult period, - military expert Vladislav Shurygin
COMMENT 【評語】
霸道俄國一意孤行，在2022年9月30日讓俄烏戰事升級後，局勢轉變了180度。物極必反。目前信息戰的主要面是止戰求和。面對各方挑釁和國際政治佈局，王道中國絕不能被俄國帶入歐洲大戰，同時必須避免被捲入印度洋-太平洋大戰的風險（台海戰爭只是引爆點）。總之，反戰/中立立場最合乎中國/香港的國家安全和社會理性。看那些國內外政治時始終要把最無辜受害的平民百姓擺在念頭。
The situation has changed by 180 degrees after Russia was bent on escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine on September 30, 2022. What goes around comes around. The main side of the current information war is to stop the war and seek peace. In the face of provocations from all sides and the international political situation, China must not be led by Russia into the European war and must avoid the risk of being drawn into the Indo-Pacific war (the Taiwan Strait war is only the trigger). In short, an anti-war/neutral stance is the best for China/Hong Kong's national security and social rationality. When looking at domestic and foreign politics, the most innocent civilians must always be at the forefront of their minds.
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