Updated: Aug 1
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
a. Exposing interventions of foreign NGOs is banal and cliched due to its fatal lack of historical materialist approach to the class society holistically. I won't follow any conspiracy theorists and their platforms. Conspiracy theories are only destructive to brains and intelligence analysis.
b. This is neither an op-ed piece nor any news report. This is intelligence analysis thus it must wait for adequate information and development of incidents.
c. The US presidential election 2020 is the hottest topic, and it is the best litmus test for local and Chinese state media for measuring degree of being infiltrated by democrat agents. How responding to the election is inevitably reveal their political nature and status. This topic is deliberately avoided in this report and reported in the future issue as long as it is still disputed. In short, Chinese state media and ''pro-establishment'' media all rushed to celebrate Biden and democrats for the disputed election victory on November 3, 2020 while they totally ignored pre-Trump era wars and regime change attempts by Obama-Biden regime (2009-2017). Even they totally ignored the fact that Umbrella Revolution and colour-revolutionary network of NOYDA were mainly established by NDI=democrats. Democrats are still playing more active roles in the front line of anti-Chinese and anti-Russian campaigns than republicans. Thus Chinese state media ''propaganda machines'' and pro-establishment's reactions to the disputed Biden victory is unsophisticated, negative and careless. They became mocking birds of democrats and western mainstream media on this. A sheer contrast to the intelligent Putin regime and respected Russian state media.
d. Both pro and anti-Chinese news sources are broadly cited and referenced to avoid one-sidedness.
e. True intelligence analysis is only possible when there is no pressure or order for ''political correctness.'' This caused the situation in which ''professional'' intelligence analysts just follow the ''official narrative'' without critical thinking about themselves and others. Respected professionals will understand this.
f. Exposing foreign NGOs - especially banal claims and cliched ''theories'' on the conspiratory NED network - can't even help containing Thailand protests due to fatal lack of historical materialist approach. The ''pro-monarchy'' camp should learn lessons from HK. I just don't engage in it while I just need to concentrate on domestic political issues of HK in terms of world politics. They must know that solving domestic political issues is the best help or contributions for foreign politics simultaneously.
The Reverse Course in HK against HKNSL (6/30/2020-present)
The Reverse Course in HK started just after the introduction of HKNSL on June 30, 2020 in the grip of the vested interests of HK against CPC (a.k.a. CCP) as conscious people easily predicted before that. As the result, black-shirts are gradually and systematically released without actual sentences due to biased judges and highly suspicious technical ''errors'' made by Justice Department, and infiltrators of HK SAR government. Now they are trying to make HKNSL ''a dead letter'' in financial field. Furthermore, promoting ''development of innovation and technology'' (it means creating local tech giants) can only be a PR stunt of HK SAR government while they will stride to maintain the speculation-driven crony capitalist framework of the city.
Vested interests have no intention or obvious tendency to make any risky changes to the present class caste and city's governing structures. For them, maintaining the status quo of the international financial hub and policy shift to ''development of innovation and technology'' from speculation-based land and real-estate monopoly capitalism are ridiculously incompatible policy choices in practice. Thus only Beijing's active roles, direct interventions and effective management of HK politics and economic policies can solve both regional protectionism of mainland against HK and reactionary resistance of vested interests of HK (the latter took form of ''Occupy Central' and ''Anti-Extradition Bill'' colour revolutions with help from foreign meddlers) against mainland China.
Indeed, holistic resolution to the two major political and economic obstacles between HK and mainland is dialectically and historically necessary. It can only be achieved by direct management, full governing of the city by the central government initiatives while they claimed to have the rights. Structural stagnation and stubborn resistance of HK oligarchs can only postpone the end of their broadening-inequality-based profit making at the cost of benefits of working class. Their largest scheme to intensify the present profit making system of oligarchs is the notorious ''Lantau Tomorrow Vision'' (2018-). Then they can safely and comfortably exploit both HK and China in the following decades by this oligarch-led construction project which totally ignores mass scale of wasted lands and abusive use of lands.
The Standing Committee of the National People's Congress (NPCSC) passed the legal decision titled ''disqualification of legislators concerned in accordance with NPCSC's decision on qualification of HKSAR legislators'' on November 11, 2020 (DQ4; disqualifying Alvin Yeung; Dennis Kwok Wing-hang; Kwok Ka-ki; Kenneth Leung; Carrie Lam is empowered to directly disqualify any legislators who violate criteria defined by the decision; it even can't be challenged by court in HK) and following mass resignation of 15 opposition legislators (the total opposition number is reduced to 2 out of 21 legislators; 11/12) help oligarchs to not only relieve their financial burdens on donations of both camps at the legislative council (LegCo) but also help drilling through the unfavourable law proposals with paid ''pro-establishment'' camp (41 legislators) which would contradict class interests of the working class and ultimately torment China itself. On the entire reverse course, any one-sided or isolated move without subsequent structural reform will unexpectedly intensify influences and powers of HK oligarchs even if it can reduce influence of foreign meddlers to some extent. Unfortunately foreign critics and analysts only see the latter ''influence of foreign meddlers '' one-sidedly hence they always blindly lack insight into the inner politics and local class war. Fortunately ''pro-democracy'' district council representatives are untouched by the decision thus they will attend the next legislative council election 2021. Beijing showed their estimation and wary that existing ''pro-establishment'' camp can't win the next LegCo election of 2021 while the vast majorities of grassroots votes of HK always go for the opposition camp therefore it's more about the next legislative election than separatism itself.
FACTS (October & November 2020)
1. Postponement of Annual Policy Address (10/11); Shenzhen Special Economic Zone's 40th Anniversary (10/14); The Fifth Plenary Session (10/26-29) of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) + The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) and Carrie Lam's Visit to Beijing for Economic Recovery Talks with Technocrats (11/3-7)
57.保持香港、澳門長期繁榮穩定。全面准確貫徹「一國兩制」、「港人治港」、「澳人治澳」、高度自治的方針，堅持依法治港治澳，維護憲法和基本法確定的特別行政區憲制秩序，落實中央對特別行政區全面管治權，落實特別行政區維護國家安全的法律制度和執行機制，維護國家主權、安全、發展利益和特別行政區社會大局穩定。支持特別行政區鞏固提升競爭優勢，建設國際創新科技中心，打造「一帶一路」功能平台，實現經濟多元可持續發展。支持香港、澳門更好融入國家發展大局，高質量建設粵港澳大灣區，完善便利港澳居民在內地發展政策措施。增強港澳同胞國家意識和愛國精神。支持香港、澳門同各國各地區開展交流合作。堅決防範和遏制外部勢力幹預港澳事務。 - The Fourteenth Five-Year Plan (2021-2025) (1)
It can be summed as two requirements. (a) integration of Hong Kong economy into mainland China; (b) transformation of the obsolete economic model of HK by ''development of innovation and technology'' like Shenzhen. The new five-year plan surprisingly did not mention ''maintaining the prestigious status of being international financial hub.'' Hong Kong is no longer required to play the past monopolistic role in the entire national developmentalist strategy of China. In fact, Shenzhen and other part of China are replacing HK with more advanced GDP scores. Is it a victory of vested interests of HK? No, it is pretty close to abandonment or degrading of HK strategically as certain economic and bureaucratic competitions still do exist between mainland and HK. ''Maintaining the prestigious status of being international financial hub'' is now only the narcissistic self-defined PR policy of HK and declining ''pro-establishment'' camp (even though they occupied all 18 panels' chairman seats at legislative council of HKSAR on November 3, 2020; it doesn't make any difference for their ''two-faced'' patrons who are rich enough to fund both camps; ''blue & yellow'' colour-identity politics is to divide and conquer the class opponents in class war in HK thus ''two-faced'' patrons and ''two-faced'' corporate private media are real class enemies for the working class).
According to the communique of the fifth plenary session of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) released on Oct. 29, 2020, Beijing thinks the colour revolution 2019 ceased in HK; rebuilding and integrating economy of HK into the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area project (Belt and Road Initiative; announced in 2014; estimated completion in 2049) is the next priority; regional protectionism of mainland's rural governments still are ''unsolvable'' major barriers for HK when integrate itself into mainland economy) , however both the anti-extradition bill colour revolution 2019 and COVID-19 epidemic 2020 are not finished yet in HK.
On the contrary to the official narrative of Chinese state media - their ''news reports'' are rather bureaucratic announcements which are meant to prevent any OSINT attempts by intelligence agencies - , what really happening in HK politics is extremely grim for China and any patriots. This analysis refers to several current incidents which are critically significant for the next step of political gambling of the ''two-faced'' ruling class of HK.
First of all, postponement of the annual policy address of Carrie Lam (originally planned to be held on October 14 but suddenly postponed on October 11, 2020; estimated to publish within November like Macau) was a result of the first time refusal of Beijing on insincere bureaucratic formalism of HK SAR government because president Xi's visit to Shenzhen for the celebration of the linchpin of the bay area Shenzhen Special Economic Zone's 40th anniversary was scheduled beforehand and Carrie Lam had to visit Beijing for economic recovery talks in following days (November 3-7). They are intolerable about this. Beijing surprisingly took apparent initiative on governing Hong Kong. That's positive for China yet Hong Kong's future transformation of its economic model still has been disputed by many between ''maintaining the world class financial service hub'' and ''strategically'' developing highly uncompetitive IT sectors and other equally tiny industries as part of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area since 2015. In fact, the present Hong Kong economy is heavily run by speculation of stock prices, lands and real estate properties without proper social welfare for the people. Thus vested interests are major obstacles for rapid transformation of hollowed Hong Kong economy into more competitive one within the entire China (HK can be or should be the next Shenzhen?). There is nether powerful momentum nor strong tendency for abrupt changes of the present economic structures of Hong Kong. Simply it's politically only allowed to push purely quantitative limited amendments within the present social framework of oligarchs who actually run politics of HK behind both ''pro-establishment'' and now defunct ''opposition'' camps. Hence the postponement and rewrite of the annual policy report can only be empty in practice as long as economic leverages and influences of HK oligarchs are untouched by Beijing. However there is some suggested solution to improve the status quo. For instance, CPC (a.k.a. CCP) officials and members joining HK government and political parties of HK, that will be practical threats to the vested interests of HK as Hong Kong still has no political party law. (All political parties of HK are ''limited companies''; ''social organisations'' equal with ''NGOs'' not professionally trained political parties under Societies Ordinance or Companies Ordinance; in other words, ''HK political parties'' are more like ''companies'', and their chairmen are ''capitalists'')
Lack of professional POLITICAL PARTY LAW in HK indicates its fundamental reliance on external or foreign advisers and support in various fields. It's one of fatal differences of HK in world politics which is completely unknown for the most of media and ''professional'' journalists.
For further understanding analysis above, several facts must be known:
a. For HKSAR government, what they always seek from mainland is only short-sighted ''beneficial'' policy on both CEPA and individual/ business travels not any structural changes or improvement of social welfare in HK itself. Thus general policy goal of ''improvement of social welfare'' is distorted and narrowed by silly HKSAR bureaucrats due to its exclusion of HK itself. On November 6, 2019, HKSAR published the article below:
b. Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park construction project (HK's only ''innovation and technology'' project; 2017-2021) is one of prominent instances to grab the fundamental difference between HK and Shenzhen. Although start of the economic innovation of Shenzhen was later than HK, Shenzhen successfully finished construction of the Shenzhen part on the project with total 102 tech categories have been introduced in there since April 2020 while HK still has stacked in the middle of construction postponement on their own part. HKCD reported the news on April 26, 2020:
c. Hong Kong 2030+: Towards a Planning Vision and Strategy Transcending 2030 (2016-2019) is just another PR stunt because it is only justification, decoration of the status quo without any dramatic structural changes for itself. And filled with empty slogans. It's true that real reformism is a taboo in HKSAR. In fact, HKSAR bureaucrats are good at PR stunts and use PR stunts to replace actual reforms and actions. THINK HONG KONG published on November 6, 2020:
d. HKTDC and InvestHK's PR stunts are ''no policy'' on Belt and Road Initiative (2014). Transformation of economy and innovative development can't be achieved by more PR activities and pure accumulation of capital. It needs strategical management by government not by self-profit-driven capitalists. At present, what they already completed are late inauguration of Belt and Road Office staffs within Industry and Tourism Branch, Commerce and Economic Development Bureau Commerce in this year; annual international conference The Belt and Road Summit of HKTDC is a sheer PR stuff. All of them indicate ''no policy'' and ''no strategic actions.'' HKTDC reported on September 8, 2019:
Mission leader Edward Yau Tang-wah said he believes with the city’s global outlook and international connectivity, Hong Kong enterprises and professionals play an indispensable role in making Hong Kong the prime platform for enterprises in both countries to participate in the Belt and Road Initiative.
The HKTDC will continue to strengthen its efforts in fostering collaboration with members around the world to maximise the opportunities arising from the Belt and Road Initiative. (5)
Pouring money and making ordinary investment deals bilaterally don't fulfil the strategic transformation of the HK economic structures. On the contrary, they just talk about bilateral investment deals which have nothing to do with actual strategic planning of The Belt and Road. Those PR stunts are just made in the name of The Belt and Road. That's all.
e. Obsolete Industrialisation Model of HK No Longer Applicable in Mainland and Anywhere in the World: Historically HK's sweatshop-driven industrialisation of the Guangdong province between 1979 to 2010 by HK entrepreneurs and investors was based on their industrialisation model of 1950s and 1960s. That's all gone now even though the HK sweatshop-driven industrialisation successfully transformed the Guangdong province into the China's major industrial centre during 1980s and 1990s. Furthermore at its peak, HK capitalists employed more than 10 million labour forces in 2007. Then, policy change came, the entire Guangdong province no longer needed to rely on HK sweatshops to boost their export-driven economy with cheaper labour force, low technologies, and labour-intensified consumer commodities. The new measures taken by the local government made their sweatshop-model unprofitable. Finally HK-capital firms had halved their entire work force in 2010. Thus HK's past successful business model ''sweatshop-driven'' industrialisation will have no place in the entire Chinese development plans forever. The cheaper-labour oriented neoliberal value is no longer acceptable for CPC and the central government. The Guangdong province became the core of Chinese industrial revolutions. It showed ''Scientific'' Outlook on Development which fundamentally differs from anarchistic neoliberalism of HK.
自2008年以來，廣東的經濟發展戰略和經濟發展格局與趨勢出現了較大的改變和調整。除了廣東經濟發展的內在因素外，促成這種調整的外在因素，一是中共十七大的召開和汪洋擔任廣東省委書記，提出了廣東經濟發展的新路向，二是金融海嘯引發的全球經濟衰退以及國家應對的舉措。第一個因素是政治上和政策上的，第二個因素則是市場上的，兩大因素共同促成了廣東經濟發展格局與趨勢的調整。在此基礎上，順應國內、國際經濟發展的趨勢，廣東省明確提出“`十二 五'時期(2011-2015 年)，是廣東深入實施《珠江三角洲地區改革發展規劃綱要(2008-2020年)》，深化改革開放，加快轉變經濟發展方式攻堅克難的關鍵時期，是全面建設更高水準的小康社會，向基本實現社會主義現代化目標邁進的關鍵時期，必須承前啟後搶抓科學發展戰略新機遇，緊緊圍繞`加快轉型升級、 建設幸福廣東'這個核心，全面開創科學發展、社會和諧新局面。" (6)
2. Never Ending Story: Unjustifiable Release of Black-shirts by Justice Department's Negligence, Technical ''Errors'' And Politically Biased Judges (6/9/2019-10/31/2020)
The Reverse Course of HK means that anti-China reactionaries systematically coordinated to reverse the effects of HKNSL without apparently confront the central government. A work of infiltrators.
In general, police arrested total 10,148 suspects during the ''anti-extradition bill'' colour revolution between June 9, 2019 to October 31, 2020 however there are still only 23% of ''black-shirted protesters'' legally charged, and major categories of charges are (1) rioting (690 suspects) ; (2) illegal gathering (412 suspects) and (3) possession of offensive weapons in public place (337 suspects). According to news report of ON.CC on November 10, 2020, 603 out of 726 defenders got sentenced.
In other words, there are only 603 criminals out of 10,148 suspects actually got sentenced until October 31, 2020. 0.06 (6%) of the entire ''peaceful and polite'' PROTESTERS proven guilty during the ongoing ''anti-extradition bill'' colour revolution is unbelievable. Many of them got released at the phase of prima facie on their charges. One symbolic incident of this is the Sham Siu-man court case on October 31, 2020 in which the regional judge of