Hong Kong Intelligence Report #34 How to Win The 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election?
Updated: Aug 1, 2021
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About 58% (2016 legislative council election) to 71% (2019 district council election) of Hong Kong voters vote for every election held in Hong Kong. The total amount of voters is 4,132,977 in 2019 according to Voter Registration Statistic. The number is almost equal with the number of the workers (labor force) in Hong Kong, 3,861,100 workers in April-June 2020 calculated by census and statistics department.
The main issue of opposition camp is that they are always divided into too many parties on the legislative council election not the total amount of votes. The election method of the legislative council is Proportional Representation thus the tactic of opposition does not fit the election as long as they maintain too many parties instead of forming one or a few parties. This will depend on the will of their masterminds. Remember all major structural changes were done via so called ''pro-establishment''.
In the last legislative council election 2016, there were 58.28 % (2,202,283 voters) of 3,779,085 voters voted. The victory of so called ''pro-establishment'' camp was due to internal division among opposition parties. In that election, total votes for ''pro-establishment'' was 871,016, 40.17% of the effective votes, 2,167,411. Opposition ''pan-democrats'' got 781,168, 36.02%. And opposition ''localists'' gained 411,893, 19.00%. Other opposition or centrist parties received 103,334, 4.81%. If they unified their candidates and parties into one opposition party, the entire Hong Kong opposition exceeds ''pro-establishment'' enormously. The total could have been 1,296,395 votes (about 59.83% of the effective votes, 2,167,411) for opposition camp. It means opposition camp is in fact the majority of the society of Hong Kong. Furthermore, the society is definitely divided into two camps politically.
The majority of the Hong Kong voters still is opposition. Unlike their complaints, pro-establishment stably mobilised their 40% organised voters in the 2019 district council election, however their main issue still is that they did not gain any new voters. This tendency will continue.
In other words, at least 40.17% of effective voters decide the majority in the legislative council of Hong Kong. This number is higher than Japan's 25% thus Hong Kong citizens of both camps are politically more conscious than Japanese voters. For the district council election, opposition united and occupied the vast majority of seats with 1,677,040 effective votes, 57.44% of the total effective votes, 2,919,622 contrary to pro-establishment's 41.32% (1,206,645 effective votes; they failed to get new voters; maintaining the 40% line is not adequate to be the majority of the council anymore). The opposition camp set the new hurdle to be the majority in the district councils of Hong Kong but also it will be the hurdle for the electoral victory of the upcoming legislative council election of 2021.
1. The most important political issue between China and US is undoubtedly the upcoming 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election. Repetitive mishandling of the third wave of COVID-19 (Hong Kong is the only place where still has been under the severe epidemic among all other Chinese cities since July 1, 2020; neoliberalism in Hong Kong showed its total incompetence and anti-intellectualism on national security issues not limited in the epidemic) and opportunistic zig-zags of Hong Kong SAR government will be ultimately compensated by an inevitable electorate failure of ''pro-establishment'' camp. It can be called a nightmare for China. It's more serious and critically important than any other topics of July like HSBC collusion with US DOJ on Huawei or closures of US bank accounts of SAR bureaucrats (The convenor of unofficial members of Executive Council Bernard Charnwut Chan claimed that an American bank informed him the closure of his bank account in US in March and refunded his deposits in April thus it is no threat to both bureaucrats and citizens at all) or closures of consulates of both sides. Other topics are more like deflective tricks by US mainstream media and its administration. The core of the anti-China target is the upcoming election in Hong Kong.
The vast majorities of citizens who are part of ruling class colour politics of Hong Kong automatically link so called ''pro-establishment'' figures with Hong Kong SAR government bureaucrats. Thus ideologically voters of both camps blindly see misdeeds of Hong Kong SAR government bureaucrats as misdeeds of ''pro-establishment'' candidates. The 2019 Hong Kong District Council Election was held on time under the harassing and violence from the black shirted mobs due to SAR government's surrender to the political pressure from local vested interests which it represents. This time, again, despite of the ongoing colour revolution and COVID-19 epidemic, Carrie Lam insisted on July 19 , 2020 that the 2020 Hong Kong Legislative Council Election is going to be held on time (September 6, 2020).
It highly reflected the political scheme of the local vested interests behind her. There was some speculation that the SAR government would re-evaluate the possibility of postponement of the election at the end of July or early August. (That was right.) (1) One of the main considerations is Hong Kong voters in mainland China and other countries. There are at least 155,400 Hong Kong voters (above 18 years old) living in mainland according to the survey ''Hong Kong Residents’ Experience of and Aspiration for Taking Up Residence in the Mainland of China'' in 2009. (2)
Also this is why opposition parties still require lockdown of the border with mainland while the mainland successfully contained the epidemic, and Hong Kong evacuators to mainland via Shenzhen Bay Port (the second largest border control facility next to the Hong Kong international airport) have been increasing, especially reported 30 % increase from July 5 to July 11(total 2017 people which are the largest number since lockdown of the border in March). (3) It makes the slogan of ''lockdown of borders'' with mainland an electoral public stunt.
The third wave of COVID-19 and its mishandling by SAR government will determine the fate of ''pro-establishment'' camp in the upcoming election in September 5, 2021. It is quite grim for them due to broadly criticised incompetence of the SAR bureaucrats (symbolised by the salary of Chief Executive; 5 million 210 thousand HKD) who are higher earners among all countries besides Singapore in 2019. (4)
Hong Kong film imagery of its bureaucrats is totally falsified and purely fictional in comparison to the reality. They are enjoying only annually increasing salaries while the working class people of Hong Kong are laid off massively and easily during the colour riots and epidemic. The salary of Hong Kong bureaucrats is not determined systematically it depends solely on their free will if they decide freezing raising salaries or cut salaries according to social pressures. The society has been requiring them a kind of salary system which strictly based on their performance since 2002.
Unfortunately the SAR bureaucrats are no heroes, zeroes in the eyes of the working class people. For the conditions of the working class of Hong Kong, Australian JobsDB's census report on Hong Kong workers showed there was only average 5.1% increase of salaries specifically in PR/ clerk, digital marketing/e-commerce, and insurance companies, obviously salaries of those hot jobs are based on commissions not basic salaries. Furthermore 50% of job seekers who are under 25 yo nakedly quitted their jobs in 2019. It's no better than 2018. (5)
The unemployment rate hit the highest in a decade since 2005, 6.2% with approximately 240 thousand unemployed workers in 2019. (6)
Mishandling of the third wave of COVID-19 by the Hong Kong SAR government is mainly due to ''Exemption from Compulsory Quarantine Arrangement for inbound travellers from Foreign Places.'' The test-exempted inbound workers are proven to be the origins of the third wave of COVID-19 that SAR government distracted the attentions of citizens before a vessel MSC Flavia's nine foreign seamen (total 24 crew members and 11 crew members of the vessel infected the virus; this cluster was confirmed in Ningbo on June 26, 2020) who exempted from PCR tests got diagnosed as positive after they entered mainland on June 26, 2020 according to report from mainland custom. This was the beginning of the third wave of COVID-19.
The nine foreign seamen had stayed at Dorsett Tsuen Wan Hong Kong in Hong Kong from June 21 to 23. Centre for Health Protection did not raise alarm of the public about the loopholes of the test exemption arrangement on 33 kinds of categories of people. Furthermore, Dorsett Tsuen Wan Hong Kong is very closed to the previous outbreak point, Kerry Logistics warehouse in Kwai Chung in where four staffs infected the virus.
Hong Kong Seamen's Union claimed that no local workers employed by MSC Flavis thus nine seamen were shifted by exactly the same number of foreign seamen who had flied to Hong Kong two or three days ago then after the shift change in Hong Kong, the previous seamen took an airplane to fly back to their home country. (7)
Origins of the third wave of COVID-19 were not natural causes at all. It was mainly due to the loopholes of the SAR establishment itself.
''Exemption from Compulsory Quarantine Arrangement for inbound travellers from Foreign Places'' (On July 15, 2020 updated)
Under section 4(1) of the Compulsory Quarantine of Persons Arriving at Hong Kong from Foreign Places Regulation (Cap. 599E) (the Regulation), made under the Prevention and Control of Disease Ordinance (Cap. 599), the Chief Secretary for Administration may designate any person or category of persons fulfilling certain criteria for exemption that –
the person’s or persons’ entry into Hong Kong –
is necessary for the supply of goods or services required for the normal operation of Hong Kong or the daily needs of the people of Hong Kong;
is necessary for governmental operation;
is necessary for the protection of the safety or health of the people of Hong Kong or the handling of the public health emergency within the meaning of section 8(5) of the Ordinance concerning the specified disease; or
because of the exceptional circumstances of the case, otherwise serves the public interest of Hong Kong; or
the person’s or persons’ travelling is necessary for purposes relating to manufacturing operations, business activities or the provision of professional services in the interest of Hong Kong’s economic development.
In accordance with section 4(1) of the Regulation, the Chief Secretary for Administration has exempted the following categories of persons from the compulsory quarantine requirement.
Category of persons
#2. Crew members of goods vessels
Exemption from Compulsory Quarantine Arrangement for inbound travellers from Foreign Places
On July 26, 2020, eight seamen from UK, Switzerland, the Philippines and India diagnosed as positive, SAR government finally announced temporary suspension of cruises and change of shift of none-goods loading or uploading seamen in Hong Kong from July 29, 2020. And seamen must remain in vessels. Foreign seamen also must submit negative PCR test results that done within 48 hours before the departure. However if they need a change of shift, they still can arrange point to point transportation for the seamen. It includes pilots. (8)
The reaction of the SAR government was extremely late. It's been a month since the report from mainland custom on MSC Flavia cluster case on June 26, 2020. Thus high efficiency of SAR bureaucrats is purely a hoax. Their score is the worse than any other third world countries they disdain.
The total number of Hong Kong's first（Approximately from January 28 to February 12） and the second （Approximately from March 14 to April 11）waves were 1259 cases but the third wave (July 1-) was 1375 cases on July 26, 2020. (9) In fact, there is no objective time consensus on the definition of the three waves but the point is that the total amount of the first and second waves must be less than the third one. It proved that the crappy SAR government is completely out of control thus they officially asked mainland for help on July 27, 2020.
Latest local situation of COVID-19 (Chinese ver. provides holistic view)
SAR government's anti-epidemic policy has a common flaw that they always set unnecessarily too long buffer period before enforcing forcible measures which immediately needed under the extreme circumstances. For instance,
the suspension of cruises and unnecessary shift of foreign seamen has to wait for more four days at the time of writing. They can spread viruses during the buffer period freely like before. It even will accelerate the shift changes during these days, intensifying the work load before the due date. In other words, it will help rapidly spreading the virus in this way. For Specified conditions imposed on inbound travellers who have visited specified high risk places (Cap.599H), it has to take a week to be effective. They set ''one week'' buffer period thus those virus carriers can spread virus during the period as same as other buffer periods on anti-epidemic measures. (10) It was announced on July 18, 2020 and has been effective from July 25, 2020. Undeniably one-week delay unnecessarily accelerated the contagion within the city. For Kazakhstan where recently reported outbreak of unknown pneumonia (later the health ministry of Kazakhstan government denied it, BBC reported on July 10, 2020. WHO considers those are undiagnosed cases of COVID-19 not something new due to low-quality testing or no testing) and the world's top number one infected country USA, it had been postponed for 11 days to forcibly restrict the inbound travellers and take their sputum samples.
Under Prevention and Control of Disease (Regulation of Cross-boundary Conveyances and Travellers) Regulation (Cap.599H), an inbound traveller who, on the day on which the traveller boarded a civil aviation aircraft that arrives at, or is about to arrive at Hong Kong (specified aircraft), or during the 14 days before that day, has stayed in any specified place (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines and South Africa starting 0.00am on 25 July 2020; and Kazakhstan and the United States of America as additional specified places with effect from 0.00am on 29 July 2020), must provide the following documents: (11)
Specified conditions imposed on inbound travellers who have visited specified high risk places (Cap.599H)
How SAR government deflects attentions of people from their own mistake ''test-exemption''? That is done by proactively tightening the restriction of gathering to only two people, banning eat-in at restaurants, forcing citizens to wear facial masks in interior and exterior outer spaces (the harsher measures also have its two day buffer period before enforcement) . It means that they have scapegoated its citizens during protecting 33 categories of privileged people who enjoying test-exemption and also are origins of the third wave of COVID-19. (12)
The BBC interview of a medical worker in Kazakhstan also perfectly grabbed the common phenomenon among impotent crony capitalist bureaucrats like in Hong Kong and Japan.
"They do it [to lower the total coronavirus figures] because they don't want to be in the first place for this disease," she said. "It's much easier to change statistics than to fight coronavirus." - An anonymous medical worker to BBC (13)
PCR testing is expanding recently and it's improved as experts suggesting everyday should conduct at least 7,500 tests for citizens. From July 1 to July 21, SAR government did 177,535 tests, approximately 8,454 tests per day. (14)
However the worst thing is that the originally highly fragile public medical facilities of Hong Kong are almost running out of capacities for COVID-19 patients and others. It means that none-COVID-19 patients are also dangerously excluded from the adequate medical service. The health care system is like US where drastically weakened by neoliberalism before the pandemic. There is no sizable proportion of medical facilities for ordinary people of Hong Kong. As the result, there are more than a hundred COVID-19 patients are staying at home with their families due to lack of capacities at hospitals. (15)