Hong Kong Intelligence Report #48 'Increasing Housing and Land Supply' Speculation & 3 High Scams

Updated: Jan 16

#Translation #DeepPolitics #BigSpeculation

FILE PHOTO: Skyrocketing Prices ©WiX
FILE PHOTO: Skyrocketing Prices ©WiX

IMPORTANT Deep Politics of Hong Kong


【施政報告2021.懶人包】直播特首林鄭月娥公布任內最後一份施政報告 | 01新聞

The Special Administrative Region of Real Estate Developers

The core political point of the policy address is all about how long the three high policy (the 3 highs mean Hong Kong's high land price, high housing price and high rent) will last in the future.

The answer that the public got was the great speculation on land and housing (the Northern Metropolis Development Strategy) for the next 20 years without anti-monopoly policy.
Since the official announcement of the policy address on October 6, 2021, the Great Northern Speculation for the vested interest has been officially launched. Unlike the official goal of the policy address 'to solve 3 highs', it is only further raising the already extremely high land price, high housing price and high rent in Hong Kong.

In the lack of rectification on the monopolistic political and economic model of the city, which formed with the collusion between the government and business in the Mightycity's Tin Shui Wai scandal in 1982 (since then, the three high policy that has continued from the British Hong Kong colony to this day), now the ruling class of Hong Kong is vowing to 'solve' the 3 high panic (the bubble) by creating a new big bubble. The 'increase in supply' scam.

The Special Administrative Region of Real Estate Developers is ''businessmen lead the government to do things''? Isn't the right way ''the government supervises the businessmen to do things''?

In the reactionary political strategy to put an end to the anti-monopoly wave, the most clear-headed Hong Kong developers (monopoly capital; oligarchs) finally defeated the Chinese Communist Party (CCP; a.k.a. the Chinese CAPITALIST Party? or the Chinese REVISIONIST Party?). The political skills of Hong Kong's major real estate developers are really brilliant.

Finally the politically savvy property oligarchy (the ''Property Party'') has managed to win continuation of the uninterrupted 3-high policy for at least the next 7 to 20 years. According to Carrie Lam, it will be 2032 (''the next 10 years''), but she later changed her words to ''20 years''. Even the three high policy of "high land price", "high property price" and "high rent" will remain unchanged for 50 years (1997-2047). The "anti-monopoly" is over...... Please ask Beijing's professional ''Marxists(???)'' Is this the so-called "common wealth"? Pity for the petty bourgeois/middle class/grassroots of Hong Kong who will have to bear the enormous risk of the great speculation for the next 20 years. In contrast to Macau, where governed by really a good government, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for Real Estate Developers has degenerated into a human hell of misery, a paradise of collusion between the government and business of monopoly capital, a real city of sadness.

The Chief Executive's 2021 Policy Address, which released on October 6, 2021, revealed several important facts below:


Lack of anti-monopoly/Common Wealth policy advocated by the Chinese Communist Party: The most important point is that the last policy address of Carrie Lam, which had been completed after a gradual ''PUBLIC'' consultation since July 6 this year, does not contain any anti-monopoly measures. In other words, the 3.38 million Hong Kong workers, who make up the vast majority of the 7.39 million people in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, find no trace of the so-called ''common wealth'' policy in the policy address.

As long as there is a lack of anti-monopoly, anti-hoarding measures, the so-called 'increasing supply' policy / planning will be reduced to a big speculation, to serve hoarding and real estate speculation (landlord economy) as an anti-policy. This is the deep-politics under the current three high policy in Hong Kong. This is easy to confirm the truth, look at the 'increase in supply' plan launched ''to reduce ultra-high property prices'' after the release of the 2021 policy address, in contrary to the official narrative and goal, property prices have gone up further, setting off an estimated 10 to 20 years of speculation mainly driven by the North. Even this is the long term rising property price tendency. The true political and economic purpose and meaning of the so-called 'vision' policy address have become apparent and now effective. It does not negate the three high policy that is being pursued at the moment. The property oligarchs themselves have frankly stated that the property prices have a rather optimistic upward trend. This is simply contrary to the 'official' purpose of 'increasing supply' (reducing super high property prices). Say one thing, do another. In fact, the answer/truth/policy intent can be seen everywhere. The public sees but does not wake up or is tied up by private financial interests to seal the deal. There is no more opposition to it......

A major victory for politically savvy Hong Kong developers: In her live speech in the policy address, Lam repeatedly mentioned 'a developer proposed...' in relation to her 'vision' for land and housing policy. Indeed, the policies in this report can be described as a policy address for real estate developers in the Special Administrative Region. As stated by the CEO of Midland Realty, Sammy Po, since these are long-term plans, property prices will continue to rise for at least 7 or 8 years or more (the so-called ''stable property prices''; the real estate oligarchy's own ''Stability and Prosperity''). Some disgruntled netizens also estimated the 3 highs would be 'unchanged' for 10 years, and it is not even out of the ordinary to say that the three high policy of ''high land price'', ''high property price'' and ''high rent'' will remain unchanged for 50 years (1997-2047). Moreover, the champion of this political game, excellent manipulator, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Vice President of the Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong, Kwok Kai-fai Adam, estimated on July 15 this year that the future development of new towns to ''move in'' will take about 17 years (2021-2038). According to Carrie Lam, it will be 2032 (''the next 10 years''). However, she later changed her words to ''20 years'' (2042). This means that Hong Kong's monopoly capital oligarchs have succeeded in winning their own ''stability and prosperity'' for a minimum of 7 years to a maximum of 20 years to maintain the three high policy in the future. There will be no anti-monopoly measures in that future period. (1)(2)

In addition to Mightycity1982's blockbuster-like rehash of the dubious the Northern Metropolis Development Strategy, what is most worrying is that in the next 7 to 20 years, the disadvantaged groups / poor minorities such as the grassroots residents of old buildings in old districts who originally enjoyed the traditional wet market culture and the indigenous residents of the New Territories who are just defending their ancient homes are feared to be reduced to the subject of ''short-term supplies''. ''Being forced to property auction'', ''being resold'' (for example, by 'AMENDING' the New Territories Ordinance with reference to the compulsory sale means of Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance). The situation of ''being resold'' (e.g., the New Territories Ordinance is going to be amended to make reference to the compulsory sale tactics of Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance, so that ancestral land could be sold off by some treacherous landlords who are simultaneously making profits from their own property business; Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance is going to be further changed to lower the threshold for compulsory sale for developers; old buildings over 50 years old are forced to be sold off by property developers at a bargain price; and unlike the last amendment in 2010, it seems that the property oligarchy intends to let small developers to prey on the poor small owners) will happen again and again. "Don't worry, if the public rises up to protest against property developers, the National Security Law or Article 23 will be used to silence them!'' What? Are the law-abiding citizens who love Hong Kong and love the country, and just protest with their legitimate rights also will be seen as ''COCKROACHES''? How can this be? On this issue, the Hong Kong media, as the corporate media run by property advertisers, have not yet reported any opposition from the indigenous residents of the New Territories or small owners of old buildings in old districts. Instead, they have been replaced by the voices of the hegemonic real estate groups, such as the real estate association Wheelock Properties Ricky Wong Kwong Yiu or the Our Hong Kong Foundation's Ryan Yip Man Ki, representing their OWN interests. In this way, the vested interest groups unilaterally hijacked the ''public opinion'' through their legally 'bribed' media and ''think-tank'' NGOs, and caused the situation that grassroots residents of the old buildings and the indigenous residents of the New Territories to be forcibly ''AGREED'' at the level of media coverage. Even, the disadvantaged community class of ''being forced to auction'', 'being resold without consensus'' will be once again relegated to homelessness, in the city, it only means new demand for housing. For the real estate monopoly capital, this is also a two or three-fold victory. That is, forced auction brings not only direct profits, but also speculative opportunities, moreover a new demand to raise property prices. (3)(4)(5)

It revealed how vested interests in Hong Kong manipulate public opinion through KOLs: the main contents of "(5) Increasing Housing and Land Supply" and "(6) Building a Livable City" of this Policy Address had been gradually and deliberately revealed beforehand (after July 6, 2021). Does this mean that those policy 'visions' are the policies that the so-called ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) ''stars'' had been fighting for before this Policy Address was released? In fact, contrary to this sheer illusion, it was first released to the public by the vested interests who hijacking the statutory bodies (e.g., Sun Hung Kai Properties that occupies some key position in the URA) and the remaining reactionary officials from colonial British Hong Kong Government through the so-called ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) ''stars'' (KOLs; opinion leaders), ''influencers'' and media, in order to prepare and manipulate public opinion. That is why the policies they ''presented'' beforehand are exactly the same as the policies in the policy address of Lam. In fact, it is impossible to find a different policy opinion in the society. This means true and real manipulation. The so-called ''stars'' (KOLs; opinion leaders) of ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) '' are just soundboards for the vested interests not real policymakers at all. (6)(7)

It is a grim fact that the U.S. empire, the property oligarchy, and the remaining reactionary officials from British Hong Kong are successfully dominating Hong Kong's politics and economy in three-way collusion: Is the government the property developer? Is the property developer the Chief Executive? Is it the Chinese Communist Party of the Chinese Government or the Hong Kong ''Developer'' Party of the SAR Government that dominates the political economy of Hong Kong? This policy address is full of doubts. The series of political and economic events between July 6 and October 6, 2021 have confirmed that the so-called ''opposition'' camp was basically ''used'' in the past, except for the people/organisations ''hired'' by the oligarchs to play the role of political villains for the political games of the ruling class. However, due to the development of the situation, they had become political ''scapegoats.'' They still think that the United States is for democracy, freedom and human rights, so the United States is also against the real estate oligarchy of this city. Unfortunately, those who belonged to the so-called ''opposition'' in the past did not realise that the US empire and its intelligence agencies (including the so-called ''mainstream media'') have so far strategically maintained extremely conscious silence and apparent 'tactical' separation from the four major real estate oligarchs in Hong Kong (in addition to Sun Hung Kai, Cheung Kong, New World, Henderson Land Development, and sometimes plus Sino Group and Wheelock Properties - The Wharf) for decades. This is because they are primarily the core partners of the United States in Hong Kong.

The so-called ''opposition'' camp is not only a professional political ''villain'', but also a scapegoat to be used up and discarded in the end, furthermore their existence itself is a political device to eliminate the possibility of any real oppositional force independent of the oligarchy in this society. Moreover, the tripartite collusion between the U.S. empire, the real estate oligarchy, and the remnants of the reactionary British Hong Kong government has enjoyed a high degree of monopoly over statutory bodies (the restructuring of the bureau and Article 23 cannot affect them), so any changes to the electoral system of the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive cannot affect the collusion between the government and business. The so-called ''genuine universal suffrage'' is also useless on this crony capitalism. They also perfectly know that the so-called ''Hong Kong independence'' separatism is totally impossible. So what is the real purpose? At least the real political purpose of the three-way collusion is to maintain in the long term the policy of the three highs (the most liberal and exploitative greedy capitalism in the world) and the tripartite monopoly of Hong Kong's political and economic institutions. These are also a continuation of the vested interests of the British Hong Kong colonial era. The best example of the tripartite collusion is the statutory body of the URA, Au Yang, Evan Chi Chun. This representative not only represents the core interests of the United States (AmCham; the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong), but also the interests of Sun Hung Kai Properties (one of the property oligarchs). In the statutory bodies of the 'government', the U.S. empire, the real estate oligarchy, and the reactionary remnants of British Hong Kong have long been highly integrated and united through the occupation of multiple public offices. Therefore, in the past, the so-called ''opposition'' camp naively sought (?) to rely on the U.S. empire to fight real estate oligarchy was a serious contradiction and a fatal mistake. Sooner or later, the political situation will inevitably break down and metamorphose. As a result, they are now treated as scapegoats or political fertilisers by the property oligarchs and its 'PRO-ESTABLISHMENT' camp. In the end, the cross-industry monopoly capital groups became the political protagonist, the genuine master of Hong Kong. Because the major ''Hong Kong capital'' real estate developers (e.g., New World; Cheung Kong) are in fact also U.S. enterprises, the U.S. government has been protecting them as a matter of course. Thus, the fate of the so-called ''opposition'' camp is embodied in an extraordinarily twisted way by the intricate and highly political long-term strategies and techniques used by the three parties from various angles. The multiple personalities of this development are simply beyond the extremely monolithic and politically rigid minds of the mainland official media and its intelligence agencies. As long as the 'slogan' is correct, the 'posture' is correct, the 'color' is correct, the 'flag' is correct, and 'positioning' is correct, it is possible to move to the right position. If you have the right 'slogan', the right 'posture', the right 'color', the right 'flag', the right 'stance', the right 'official' narrative packaging, the right financial power, and the right Chinese nationality or Chinese ancestry, you should all be "LOVE THE COUNTRY AND LOVE HONG KONG" without thinking twice. Their 'united front', blind faith, blind support, blind protection and blind promotion of them. This is just like a bullfight that can be easily manipulated in a single line. Although for mainlanders it is world-class to criticise the ''dissidents'' in a group, but isn't it too superficial and lazy? Yet, unfortunately, this is often exactly what the public/netizens see, and they seriously lack one of the key political principles of Marxism that they themselves 'believe in', namely ''concrete research of concrete situations''. The lesson for mainlanders here is that this shortcoming and the bad habits that no longer work in the political sphere must be improved as soon as possible. In short, if this approval of the policy address is not transfer of benefits from corrupt CCP officials, then the Hong Kong property developers successfully have beaten the Chinese Communist Party in the politics of anti-monopoly and promotion of common wealth. (8)(9)(10)(11)

Corporatocracy: in other words, they knew precisely what the policy address was going to be long before it was 'published' because it was ''planned'' and ''drafted'' by themselves in statutory bodies they dominate. The so-called ''source'' is obviously one of them.

It seems that both domestic and foreign speculators smelled the true nature of the policy address, so on October 6, 2021, when property stocks were almost lopsided (-0.140%), Sun Hung Kai property stocks, whose family owns a lot of agricultural land in the New Territories and are also in control of the development decision makers in establishment, soared against the trend (+1.633%). On October 7, 2021, the four major developers' stocks surged when Carrie Lam gave a policy Q&A in the Legislative Council. In addition, Henderson Land Development, which also owns the largest amount of land in the New Territories, surged 6.4% in half a day; Sun Hung Kai Properties and New World Development rose 3.2% and 2.5%; Wharf Real Estate Investment Company rose 2.1%. The great speculation in the North triggered by the policy address has become an irreversible reality and future trend. Hong Kong citizens can only congratulate the most politically adept and outstanding Hong Kong real estate developers. It is an undeniable fact that Hong Kong real estate developers are highly skilled in politics. (12)(13)

FACTS


Related News [sic]


  1. 行政長官2020年施政報告 (10/6/2021): 91. 視乎項目的研究結果及假設住用地積比率為4至6.5,持續推進的大型項目及策劃中的項目可望於中、長期提供約400 000至500 000個公、私營房屋單位。加上在《北部都會區發展策略》可供興建165 000至186 000個房屋單位的新開拓土地,2031-32年後的下一個十至十五年的供應可高達565 000至686 000個。92. 究竟香港欠缺多少土地,是一個不能迴避的問題,因為這個估計將主導香港的空間發展策略。發展局局長稍後將發表《香港2030+》的最終報告。更新了的研究適當反映了國家多項戰略性規劃為香港帶來的機遇、未來經濟及社會發展的需要,以及市民對居住環境的期望。最終的估算顯示,香港由2019至2048年的土地短缺約為3 000公頃。透過成功推動各項新發展區及填海項目,以及推展北部都會區,我們有信心會在中長期找到所欠缺的土地。 [...] (ii)釋放新界祖堂地:儘管沒有正式數字,但新界有不少祖堂地可供發展。在《施政報告》諮詢會上,我收到不少意見表示應修訂《新界條例》放寬出售祖堂地限制,並提供合理機制處理司理出缺問題。我同意可考慮修訂《新界條例》,在尊重祖堂傳統和保障祖堂成員合理權益的前提下,務實地處理目前祖堂地難以發展的困局。民政事務局局長將與新界鄉議局成立工作小組,聯同發展局和其他部門,在一年內完成檢討並制訂具體修訂建議;(iii)延伸補地價標準化至新界土地:由於巿場和業界對以「標準金額」為工廈重建補地價的先導計劃反應正面,至今已有四個重建項目接受以「標準金額」計算的補地價金額。發展局會把「標準金額」補價模式擴展至新發展區「加強版傳統新巿鎮發展模式」下的原址換地申請。發展局和地政總署會制訂計劃詳情,目標是明年首季推出。 [...] 104. 目前的市區更新策略是重建和復修並行,除由市建局發展商收購拆卸舊樓和進行重建外,本屆政府先後撥出合共超過190億元,資助舊樓業主保養和維修其物業。但面對樓宇急速老化,樓齡達五十年或以上的私人樓宇在過去十年由3 900幢急增至8 600幢,加上全港5 000多幢「三無大廈」日久失修的問題,我們須採取更有效的政策手段,加快重建更新步伐。105. 我們會從多方面入手。第一,按剛完成的「油旺地區規劃研究」,市建局會在油麻地和旺角,以創新、地區為本方式加快市區更新,包括在合適重建項目試行轉移地積比、街道整合等規劃手段。這些措施亦會適用於私人主導的重建項目,並在合適情況下在其他地區採用。第二,我會邀請市建局在荃灣和深水埗舊區開展同樣的地區規劃研究,以確定更新這兩個舊區的方案。第三,研究降低《土地(為重新發展而強制售賣)條例》下的強拍門檻,以加快舊樓重建。在過程中,發展局會充分考慮小業主利益、樓宇狀況等因素,並聽取持份者意見。(14)(15)

  2. 施政報告|拆解地產商收入來源港樓佔比 改遊戲規則影響有幾大?(10/5/2021): 特首林鄭將於6日發表新一份《施政報告》,早前有傳中央施壓要求地產商協助港府解決住屋問題,引發市場憂慮。不過事實上,地產商並非單靠在香港建屋賣樓賺錢,也有涉足其他業務,以及進軍內地和海外。數據顯示,有地產商在本港賣樓收入佔總收入比例不夠十分之一,另有地產商七成售樓收入來自內地。地產商有多賺錢?翻查新鴻基、長實、新世界、恒基、信和置業及九倉,最新一份年度報告的數據,即使在疫情的影響下,一年收入仍可達200多億至800多億港元。 [...] 新「遊戲規則」又會有多大影響?其實,各大地產商除賣樓外,另有不同生意,例如新鴻基上年度收入中,便有逾半來自酒店、電訊等非物業銷售的業務。同時地產市場不只限於本港,以長實為例,上年度380多億元物業銷售收入中,逾七成(297億元)來自內地及海外市場。(16)

  3. 施政報告2021|美聯布少明:長遠增供應料樓價升幅「降溫」 (10/6/2021): [...] 布少明又稱,過去物業供求失衡,為樓價持續高企的原因之一,隨政府增加土地供應等相應措施進一步落實,對本港樓市長遠有著正面健康發展,將更有利用家入市,讓更多人可「安居樂業」,未來新界區將成為供應重要區域,尤其是新界西北區一帶,近年政府已積極發展,再配合政府的「北部都會區發展策略」,加上大灣區發展,區內樓市尤為受惠。另香港置業營運總監及九龍區董事馬泰陽則指,現時樓市問題源頭是供應不足,故支持特首增加土地供應不過目前香港經濟仍未全面復甦,房策宜靈活調節,增供應需「井然有序」,以回應市民上車訴求,讓樓市穩定健康發展,不要操之過急,以免重蹈當年「八萬五」的覆轍。(17)

  4. 受北京要求發展商為高樓價「積極貢獻」消息影響 港股連跌兩天 地產股今回穩 (9/21/2021): [...] 路透社上周報道,北京要求香港地產發展商需要為解決香港的房屋供應「積極貢獻」,受消息影響,股市在星期一開市即告跌,地產股全線告跌,尤其是四大發展商,而擁有可能被當局盯上的農地的三大發展商,昨日跌幅最大,當中恆基兆業地產(恆地)股價急插超過13%,是近十三年最大跌幅;而新世界及和新鴻基地產的跌幅均超過一成;至於另一大發展商長江實業,跌幅為9%。及至晚上,新地發稿稱,關注到有媒體宣稱「中央政府向香港地產商施壓」,澄清截至目前為止,未收到相關消息,並強調會主動配合港府,參與土地共享計畫以及建設大型過渡房屋。花旗銀行報告認為,昨日香港地產股因需為解決高樓價「積極貢獻」而被瘋狂沽售,屬反應過度,惟在未有具體政策公布下,對地產股看法會較保守。另外,中信里昂則表示,在現有供應機制下,香港發展商可做的有限,估計住宅相關政策潛在變化可能,建議減少涉足相關股份。(18)

  5. 地建會梁志堅:新界北發展屬長期供應 遠水不能救近火 (10/6/2021): 身兼香港地產建設商會執委會主席、會德豐地產主席梁志堅表示,雖然《施政報告》多著墨土地供應,包括大力發展新界北等,但均屬長期供應,「遠水不能救近火」,短期土地供應仍然不足,至少要到中期才可以解決土地供應問題,且填海是事在必行。對就政府指會研究降低強拍門檻,他就應為「對各方面都是好事。(19)

  6. 香港特首林鄭月娥發表《施政報告》 23條、北部都會區和土地供應成焦點 (10/6/2021): 香港民主黨認為,這份《施政報告》著重與內地融合,未有著力處理香港的問題,而政府提出的「北部都會區」,規模可能大於「明日大嶼」,但未提及實際建設預算,擔心加重政府財政負擔中間派政黨新思維認為,這份報告著力解決中長期社會核心和深層次矛盾問題,但未有具體時間表,期望特首和官員能交代每項政策的落實時間。新思維認為,這份報告涉及與內地通關的篇幅較少,希望林鄭月娥急市民所急,早日爭取恢復通關。基層福利倡議團體社區組織協會認為,這份《施政報告》對短期民生政策不足,不少市民受疫情影響面對就業不足和失業問題,《施政報告》這方面的支援措施不足民建聯認為,《施政報告》展現特區政府「積極有為」,不過沒有交代恢復與內地通關的時間,與市民期望有落差。另一親北京團體經民聯認為《施政報告》具前瞻性,希望政府可在明年香港主權移交25週年前完成23條立法。而代表香港原居民的鄉議局主席劉業強認為,林鄭月娥提出有關新界土地的建議,有助釋放新界發展潛力。(20)

  7. 賣祖堂地擬鬆綁 新界釋地建屋 料發展河套區部分濕地 緩衝區增地積比 (9/29/2021): 特首林鄭月娥10月6日(下周三)發表任內最後一份《施政報告》,預料房屋土地議題將繼續成為民生議題重點。據了解政府將在《施政報告》提出多管齊下方案,釋放新界土地發展,包括擬修改《新界條例》,降低新界「祖堂地」的轉售門檻,當中或參考《強拍條例》的做法,將門檻降至集齊八成業權同意即可轉售;另外亦擬釋放新界北河套區部分濕地及濕地緩衝區用作發展,併入現時正在發展的古洞北新發展區範圍內,部分濕地緩衝區亦擬增加地積比率以提升發展潛力。政府5月曾引用《收回土地條例》,收回3幅分別位於元朗及粉嶺的私人土地用作發展資助房屋,其中兩幅土地,即元朗元龍街與攸田東路交界附近,以及元朗十八鄉路近龍田村的土地,均涉及收回發展商地皮及「祖堂地」。 [...] 據了解,目前私人發展商持有的土儲中,有部分被「祖堂地」阻隔,發展時需與祖堂商討收購,惟因難以尋找全數男丁,致發展計劃難以實行,放寬門檻後或會加快促成這類發展項目。鄉議局主席劉業強去年接受訪問時倡議,可將「祖堂地」轉售門檻降至70%至80%同意即可進行。今年8月鄉議局與林鄭月娥會面時,亦再次建議政府放寬「祖堂地」發展限制,容許祖堂與公司合作發展土地,並稱若政府徵收「祖堂地」建屋,應考慮預留部分單位補償祖堂。消息人士續稱,政府亦擬釋放毗鄰新界北河套區的部分濕地及濕地緩衝區,用作發展私人及公營房屋單位,並納入古洞北新發展區範圍內;同時會研究提高部分濕地緩衝區的地積比率,以增加建屋量。現時濕地緩衝區內的發展地積比率一般由0.4倍至不超過1倍,發展局黃偉綸8月曾表示,后海灣濕地緩衝區並非不能發展,會考慮將發展密度較目前「再提高一點」,但考慮這些發展時需小心評估對環境影響。有關建議引起環保團體反對,憂慮放寬濕地緩衝區地積比會影響濕地保育區的生態。(21)

  8. 議員批房屋問題無改善 倡運房局分家 (7/15/2021): 本港房屋問題嚴峻,公屋輪候時間創22年新高。立法會今日(15日)通過「改革房屋政策,解決住屋問題」的議員議案。地產及建造界議員石禮謙表示,運輸及房屋局要分身處理房屋及運輸政策,牽涉的範疇太繁重,政府有必要考慮將運輸及房屋「分家」。 [...] 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆回應指,重組政策局是重要課題,涉及複雜考量、籌備及修例工作,過程需時不能一蹴而就,政府會就如何整合政策局繼續聆聽各方意見,務求精益求精。 (22)

  9. 新思維去信地產建設商會 倡重推私人參建居屋計劃 (9/23/2021): 香港房屋供應一直短缺,近日更傳出中央「下令」地產商,要配合政府助解樓荒。新思維今(23日)去信地產建設商會,呼籲地產商配合重推「私人參建居屋計劃」,以六折賣樓,並將建議轉交政府。新思維表示,房屋問題不斷惡化,政府未能及時提供土地,而地產建設商會不少成員擁有新界可發展土地,故建議地產商發展位處新界的合適地段,由政府提供大幅度的補地價拆讓,興建私人參建居屋,並提高地積比率,達致地盡其用。(23)

  10. Sun Hung Kai & Co. Ltd. (10/7/2021): Mr. Chi Chun Au Yang is an Independent Non-Executive Director at Asia Financial Holdings Ltd., an Independent Non-Executive Director at Sun Hung Kai & Co. Ltd., a Chairman at Civic Exchange, a Member at Young Presidents' Organization /Hong Kong/, a Member-Transport Policy Council at Chartered Institute of Logistics & Transport in Hong Kong and a Vice Chairman-Asia Division at International Association of Public Transport. He is on the Board of Directors at Asia Financial Holdings Ltd., Sun Hung Kai & Co. Ltd., The American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong and Urban Renewal Authority (Hong Kong). Mr. Au Yang was previously employed as an Executive Director & Deputy Managing Director by Transport International Holdings Ltd. and an Associate Partner by McKinsey & Co. (Hong Kong). He also served on the board at Long Win Bus Co. Ltd. and The Kowloon Motor Bus Co. (1933) Ltd. He received his undergraduate degree from Brown University and an MBA from Kellogg School of Management.(24)

  11. 郭基煇指6年缺7.8萬房屋單位 促政府多途徑發展土地追落後 (7/15/2021): 地產建設商會副會長郭基煇發言時指政府發展房屋土地時程序因循守舊,又稱因過往6年本港欠缺7.8萬個單位,故10年內的房屋單位供應要從每年4.3萬個提升至5.5萬個單位。他指出新市鎮發展到入伙需時約17年,當中近10年屬於規劃階段,促政府壓縮程序、加快進度。他又稱,本港的住宅土地面積佔比僅為7%,而倫敦、紐約及新加坡的住宅土地面積佔比分別為34%、34%及14%,可見本港遠遠落後於其他城市。對於香港有約1.6萬公頃的綠化地,他形容「抽10%等於一個明日大嶼」,絕大部分是政府用地,沒有私人糾紛,較為容易發展。本港新界北的農地、漁場、棕地等合共逾8300公頃,郭又認為濕地與發展可以共存。對於祖堂地作發展用途方面,他斥相關機制僵化,不少村民就算有共識,但個別人士反對就難以買賣,情況猶如「拉布但冇得剪布」,強調民政事務總署必須檢視。(25)

  12. 傳港府有意降低「強拍門檻」 議員稱可加快收購重建步伐 (9/29/2021): 有傳政府下月發表的《施政報告》將提出修訂俗稱「強拍條例」的《土地(為重新發展而強制售賣)條例》,降低申請強制拍賣門檻,由現時要集齊至少80%業權,降低至70%。議員劉國勳對有關消息表示歡迎,認為可加快市區重建,改善高齡大廈居住環境。又指條例會保障業主權益,毋須擔心。[...] 10年前修訂強拍條例,議員葉劉淑儀反對政府降低舊樓強拍門檻。她今日回應有關問題時表示,需要詳細研究政府下降門檻後,對業主的保障。她指出,若做得妥當,下調強拍條例確可釋放土地,有助競爭,給機會不夠財力在公開拍賣買地的小發展商,透過此方法發展舊樓。同時亦要其他方法配合,如收回祖堂地、重置葵涌碼頭等,多管齊下。(26)

  13. 施政報告提出多項增加土地供應措施 有發展商稱會積極配合 (10/6/2021): 政府在《施政報告》提出多項增加土地供應措施,有發展商表示歡迎會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀稱:「很多時間在新界的農地,就算是發展商擁有,其實遇到祖堂地的話,都要花很多時間才可搜集齊百分百的持份者同意出售,這都很花時間。我們過往都試過,有時十年以上又會,超過十多年也有,所以如果可以在祖堂地限制放鬆,我相信可以加快釋放新界土地配合發展。」新世界發展表示,支持政府提出全方位增加土地供應的措施,會積極作出配合,但有代理指出,《施政報告》提出的政策短期難以增加房屋供應,估計樓價仍會繼續上升。美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明說:「我看長遠來說令到樓市更健康、樓價平穩,但我們看到一些(房屋)供應都是長遠的供應,可能真的到位的話,都七、八年後或更長的時間;短期供應的著墨不多,所以短期供應也是未到位。我相信樓價始終因為資金多、息口低,供應未到位,都仍然會在未來幾年都會平穩向上。」測量師行萊坊亦預計,北部都會區概念或會令現時落後大市的新界北樓價逐步向上。而戴德梁行就認為,《施政報告》提到未來十年將有10萬個私營單位供應,但仍然不足,住宅市場仍有隱憂,長遠將導致樓價高企,期望政府能把公務員合作社的土地申請流程加快,及考慮將九龍灣七成未規劃的商業用地改劃作住宅用途。 (27)

  14. 北部都會區掀炒風 政府吹捧有錢賺 擬發債形式融資 (10/7/2021): 政府昨日(6日)公布新一份《施政報告》,提出《北部都會區發展策略》,大動作整合新界北多個新發展區,以求將香港北部打造為宜居、宜業及宜遊的都會區。惟外界關注未能有效解決樓荒問題之餘,反而掀新界地炒風,得不償失。行政長官林鄭月娥今早出席電台聯播節目時繼續吹捧,指「北部都會區」有很大發展空間,會將無發展潛力的土地變成有潛力,但承認政府未進行財務評估。被問到早年的土地大辯論是否浪費時間,為何現在才提出發展「北部都會區」,林鄭推說當年有政治爭拗,現在是香港最好的時候推動發展。(28)

  15. 指北區都會發展策略需時太長 議員:感覺不踏實 (10/7/2021): 議員黃國健在行政長官答問會上表示,欣賞《施政報告》中提出的鴻圖大計,又指《北部都會區發展策略》可開拓土地,提供更多發展機會及職位,更可融入大灣區,豐富產業。惟落實時間太長,感到「唔踏實」,根據過去多年經驗,政府的大型建基都未按時完成,關注會否編製分階段流程時間表,予市民踏實的感覺。特首林鄭月娥承認市民對於一個較長遠的規劃會感到空泛,若要全面落實北部都會區需要20年時間,又指自己曾舉例,由2007年再提出古洞北發展已14年,現在才開始賣地,惟如此冗長過程不應再存在,故要在行政程度大刀闊斧作精簡。她強調,在策略中提及需要改革行政機制及工作流程,制訂一個10年、滾動的建設進度計劃,會就基建發展及房屋供應達標情況向公眾交代,任何時間市民都可看到在北部區的大型項目進程如何,增加透明度。議員蔣麗芸表示,社會對《施政報告》持不同意見,其中有人畫餅充飢、望梅止渴,「入面咁多大計都唔知幾時完成」。她要求特首責成各部門盡早提供中、短期計劃,甚至交代未來數月有何工作可先開展。(29)

  16. 都會區!元朗樓價飆睇樓多兩成 四成人趕入市 (10/8/2021): 施政報告公布發展北部都會區,即撻着區內二手樓市,樓價再被推高。元朗連錄高價成交,采葉庭一個兩房單位售668萬元,高市價約1至2%。即使向來鮮聞買賣的洪水橋錦珊園,有一個三房戶亦售685萬元,做價料屬項目新指標。[...] 新一份施政報告聚焦房屋及土地供應,有代理就此進行一項最新置業意向調查,發現有65%受訪人士認為未來一年樓價會平穩向上,當中佔44%認為樓價會上升,比例較去年同類型調查增加約0.3個百分點。香港置業有關調查以問卷形式進行,成功收回286份有效問卷。當中有52.4%受訪者認為未受惠房屋供應相關政策,其餘47.6%則表示受惠。而對於樓價走勢,佔約28.3%人士認為未來一年樓價會上升半成以內,有關比例較去年同期調查時多約4個百分點。至於相信樓價上升半成至一成的人士,則佔約11.9%,按年減少約2.2個百分點。至於認為樓價平穩不變的受訪者比例亦多達兩成一,按年升約4.8個百分點。不過,值得注意的是,只有44.4%受訪人士計劃未來12個月入市置業,較去年大幅減少約15個百分點,反映市民對後市取態偏向審慎。該行營運總監及九龍區董事馬泰陽認為,有關土地供應政策屬中長線規劃,相信發展需時,料不可能一步到位,預計短期內供應會循序漸進,樓價受壓程度有限,對樓市前景感樂觀,預計全年樓價有力保持雙位數升幅。(30)

  17. 鄧聲興:恒地估值吸引 目標價36元 (10/8/2021): 政府在新一份「施政報告」中提及的短期住宅供應增長有限,而且無為短期樓市降溫措施,大大緩解了投資者對香港住宅市場短期內供應過剩或價格受限的擔憂。[...] 恒基地產集團主要業務包括物業發展、建築工程、酒店業務、百貨業務及物業管理等,截至6月30日止在香港擁有2,430百萬平方呎土地儲備,新界土地儲備已擴展至4,460萬平方呎,為香港擁有最多新界土地之發展商。在政府積極的房屋政策之下,預計集團的農地可望更快地轉換發展用途。該股份每股資產淨值折讓逾50%,股息收益率近6%,估值吸引,目標價36港元,止蝕價30元。(31)

  18. 元朗新盤獲投資者承接 呎售1.7萬元創新高 (10/9/2021): 據悉,買家來自九龍區,預期洪水橋一帶基建陸續上馬,物業升值空間較大,故搶先於附近物色心儀物業,是次購入單位擬作長線投資用途。該項目至今累售31伙,套現約1.8億元。美聯物業高級區域營業董事林振華表示,新一份施政報告指出,未來將大力發展新界北基建及房屋配套,料進一步促進人流物流,區內物業潛力看高一線。事實上,自報告公布後,該行隨即收到不少客戶查詢詳情,當中不乏外區客有意率先進駐區內置業,反應踴躍。(32)

  19. 建北部都會區開拓用地 黃偉綸:冀改善人均居住面積一至兩成 (10/9/2021): 政府新一份《施政報告》提出《北部都會區發展策略》,大動作整合新界北多個新發展區,以求將香港北部建設成宜居、宜業及宜遊的都會區。但外界關注無法有效解決樓荒,反會掀新界地炒風。發展局局長黃偉綸在電台節目表示,「北部都會區」規劃概念非常創新,扭轉過往「南重北輕」,重新為香港布局。強調規劃及基建發展像一場馬拉松接力賽,橫跨多屆政府,每一個環節都要做好本分,但相關項目並不是「畫在天空上的雲」,將來一定會落實。[...] 運輸及房屋局局長陳帆在同一節目中表示,當局正加大力度尋覓短期閒置土地,興建過渡性房屋,已與多個土地擁有人及非牟利機構檢視地盤,但短期土地房屋供應有局限,要靠其他措施紓緩,包括劏房租務管制。當局亦正透過不同方式加快公營房屋建造流程,包括採用「設計及建造」的招標模式、「組裝合成」建築法等,相信至2047年能有效改善房屋問題。(33)

  20. 郭家耀:新世界發展前景樂觀 (10/10/2021): 政府施政報告提出發展新界北成都會中心,新世界在該區擁有大量農地土儲,釋放價值將相當可觀。 [land hoarding](34)

  21. 公屋輪候有增無減 林鄭推諉房委會起得慢 擬勒令代繳現金津貼 (10/10/2021): 在「北部都會區」方面,有人擔心深圳的發展可能未能配合。林鄭回應指深圳過去40年發展驚人,反而應該擔心深圳走得太前,已經不需要香港,她又指深圳政府態度正面,但仍需中央政府提供更多政策配合。她又指,北部都會區的公私營房屋比率一定會比現時的7比3多,惟在公營房屋中,希望提供更多單位讓市民置業。但建屋則要收回土地,她指政府的收地賠償和安置安排已大有進步,但因現時新界收地價錢的標準,乃視乎該幅土地被收回後的用途,難免令人感到不公,政府將再作檢討。公屋聯會總幹事招國偉認為,明白政府是想鼓勵加快起樓進度,但有關做法似是將房委會當作上樓慢的罪魁禍首,加上就算現金津貼由房委會發放,但其實現金津貼本身屬公帑,因此有關說法不太準確,政府本身就有加快市民上樓的責任。招又指,不少土地供應在政府手上,就算房委會持有一些土地,要將「生地」變成「熟地」亦需時檢視。[Rhetorical Trick: Statutory bodies are part of government establishment](35)


The 3 High Policy is in fact the '4' High Policy because the 3 highs ultimately cause the high commodity prices in general.


COMMENT


In a nutshell, as we expected before, the real estate government is trying to 'solve' the 3 highs created by the real estate oligarchy itself by launching a new big speculation, which is a 'supply increase' scam. The 2021 Policy Address has marked a victory of the three-way collusion between the U.S. empire/real estate oligarchy /reactionaries from the British Hong Kong establishment. The next 20 years of 'stability and prosperity' for the big speculation. During this period, the monopolistic capitalist oligarchy in Hong Kong will enjoy the freedom to live and work in peace, to exploit freely across multiple industries, and to not worry about the anti-monopoly policy from Beijing, the national policy of common prosperity, because this 10 to 20 year northern speculation is their OWN 'common prosperity'. The policy address of Lam unveiled the Chinese dream of the oligarchy (monopoly capitalists) in Hong Kong. This is due to the excellent political skills of Hong Kong's major property developers. No wonder the Chinese Communist Party now seems to be the Chinese 'Property Party' in the eyes of the Hong Kong public who are being brutally exploited by the property oligarchy. Is this ''Marxism''? Of course, it is NOT.

NOTES

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  2. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (July 15, 2021) '郭基煇指6年缺7.8萬房屋單位 促政府多途徑發展土地追落後.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210715/bkn-20210715184324755-0715_00822_001.html

  3. https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk, policyaddress.gov.hk, (October 6, 2021) 'Policy Address - V. Increasing Housing and Land Supply.' Available at https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/2021/eng/p81.html

  4. https://news.tvb.com, TVB, (October 6, 2021) '施政報告提出多項增加土地供應措施 有發展商稱會積極配合.' Available at https://news.tvb.com/finance/615d7b6b34b0319c61f5f249/施政報告提出多項增加土地供應措施-有發展商稱會積極配合

  5. https://news.tvb.com, TVB, (October 6, 2021) '現場葉文祺施政報告土地政策合理-處理收地具複雜性需時或較久.' Available at https://news.tvb.com/local/615d427034b031087af5f25e/現場葉文祺施政報告土地政策合理-處理收地具複雜性需時或較久

  6. https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk, policyaddress.gov.hk, (October 6, 2021) 'Policy Address - V. Increasing Housing and Land Supply.' Available at https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/2021/chi/p81.html

  7. https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk, policyaddress.gov.hk, (October 6, 2021) 'Policy Address - V. Increasing Housing and Land Supply.' Available at https://www.policyaddress.gov.hk/2021/chi/p95.html

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  18. https://www.rfi.fr, 麥燕庭, rfi.fr, (September 21, 2021) '受北京要求發展商為高樓價「積極貢獻」消息影響 港股連跌兩天 地產股今回穩.' Available at https://www.rfi.fr/tw/中國/20210921-受北京要求發展商為高樓價-積極貢獻-消息影響-港股連跌兩天-地產股今回穩

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  21. https://news.mingpao.com, news.mingpao.com, (September 29, 2021) '賣祖堂地擬鬆綁 新界釋地建屋 料發展河套區部分濕地 緩衝區增地積比.' Available at https://news.mingpao.com/pns/要聞/article/20210929/s00001/1632853004826/賣祖堂地擬鬆綁-新界釋地建屋-料發展河套區部分濕地-緩衝區增地積比

  22. https://www.wenweipo.com, wenweipo.com, (July 15, 2021) '議員批房屋問題無改善 倡運房局分家.' Available at https://www.wenweipo.com/a/202107/15/AP60f029d2e4b08d3407cdc34e.html

  23. https://www.hk01.com, HK01, (September 23, 2021) '新思維去信地產建設商會 倡重推私人參建居屋計劃.' Available at https://www.hk01.com/政情/680290/新思維去信地產建設商會-倡重推私人參建居屋計劃

  24. https://www.wsj.com, wsj.com, (October 7, 2021) 'Sun Hung Kai & Co. Ltd..' Available at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/HK/XHKG/0086/company-people/executive-profile/122717778

  25. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (July 15, 2021) '郭基煇指6年缺7.8萬房屋單位 促政府多途徑發展土地追落後.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210715/bkn-20210715184324755-0715_00822_001.html

  26. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (September 29, 2021) '傳港府有意降低「強拍門檻」 議員稱可加快收購重建步伐.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20210929/bkn-20210929111625322-0929_00822_001.html

  27. https://news.tvb.com, TVB, (October 6, 2021) '施政報告提出多項增加土地供應措施 有發展商稱會積極配合.' Available at https://news.tvb.com/finance/615d7b6b34b0319c61f5f249/施政報告提出多項增加土地供應措施-有發展商稱會積極配合

  28. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 7, 2021) '北部都會區掀炒風 政府吹捧有錢賺 擬發債形式融資.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20211007/bkn-20211007081553637-1007_00822_001.html

  29. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 7, 2021) '指北區都會發展策略需時太長 議員:感覺不踏實.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20211007/bkn-20211007103522132-1007_00822_001.html

  30. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 8, 2021) '都會區!元朗樓價飆睇樓多兩成 四成人趕入市.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/finance/20211007/bkn-20211007220634623-1007_00842_001.html

  31. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 8, 2021) '鄧聲興:恒地估值吸引 目標價36元.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/finance/20211008/bkn-20211008102828858-1008_00842_001.html

  32. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 9, 2021) '元朗新盤獲投資者承接 呎售1.7萬元創新高.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/finance/20211008/bkn-20211008182510779-1008_00842_001.html

  33. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 9, 2021) '建北部都會區開拓用地 黃偉綸:冀改善人均居住面積一至兩成.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20211009/bkn-20211009092339246-1009_00822_001.html

  34. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 10, 2021) '郭家耀:新世界發展前景樂觀.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/finance/20211010/bkn-20211010091557224-1010_00842_001.html

  35. https://hk.on.cc, The Oriental Daily News, (October 10, 2021) '公屋輪候有增無減 林鄭推諉房委會起得慢 擬勒令代繳現金津貼.' Available at https://hk.on.cc/hk/bkn/cnt/news/20211010/bkn-20211010121337849-1010_00822_001.html


 

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