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Hong Kong Intelligence Report #48 'Increasing Housing and Land Supply' Speculation & 3 High Scams

Updated: Jan 16, 2022

#Translation #DeepPolitics #BigSpeculation

FILE PHOTO: Skyrocketing Prices ©WiX
FILE PHOTO: Skyrocketing Prices ©WiX

IMPORTANT Deep Politics of Hong Kong

【施政報告2021.懶人包】直播特首林鄭月娥公布任內最後一份施政報告 | 01新聞

The Special Administrative Region of Real Estate Developers

The core political point of the policy address is all about how long the three high policy (the 3 highs mean Hong Kong's high land price, high housing price and high rent) will last in the future.

The answer that the public got was the great speculation on land and housing (the Northern Metropolis Development Strategy) for the next 20 years without anti-monopoly policy.
Since the official announcement of the policy address on October 6, 2021, the Great Northern Speculation for the vested interest has been officially launched. Unlike the official goal of the policy address 'to solve 3 highs', it is only further raising the already extremely high land price, high housing price and high rent in Hong Kong.

In the lack of rectification on the monopolistic political and economic model of the city, which formed with the collusion between the government and business in the Mightycity's Tin Shui Wai scandal in 1982 (since then, the three high policy that has continued from the British Hong Kong colony to this day), now the ruling class of Hong Kong is vowing to 'solve' the 3 high panic (the bubble) by creating a new big bubble. The 'increase in supply' scam.

The Special Administrative Region of Real Estate Developers is ''businessmen lead the government to do things''? Isn't the right way ''the government supervises the businessmen to do things''?

In the reactionary political strategy to put an end to the anti-monopoly wave, the most clear-headed Hong Kong developers (monopoly capital; oligarchs) finally defeated the Chinese Communist Party (CCP; a.k.a. the Chinese CAPITALIST Party? or the Chinese REVISIONIST Party?). The political skills of Hong Kong's major real estate developers are really brilliant.

Finally the politically savvy property oligarchy (the ''Property Party'') has managed to win continuation of the uninterrupted 3-high policy for at least the next 7 to 20 years. According to Carrie Lam, it will be 2032 (''the next 10 years''), but she later changed her words to ''20 years''. Even the three high policy of "high land price", "high property price" and "high rent" will remain unchanged for 50 years (1997-2047). The "anti-monopoly" is over...... Please ask Beijing's professional ''Marxists(???)'' Is this the so-called "common wealth"? Pity for the petty bourgeois/middle class/grassroots of Hong Kong who will have to bear the enormous risk of the great speculation for the next 20 years. In contrast to Macau, where governed by really a good government, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region for Real Estate Developers has degenerated into a human hell of misery, a paradise of collusion between the government and business of monopoly capital, a real city of sadness.

The Chief Executive's 2021 Policy Address, which released on October 6, 2021, revealed several important facts below:

Lack of anti-monopoly/Common Wealth policy advocated by the Chinese Communist Party: The most important point is that the last policy address of Carrie Lam, which had been completed after a gradual ''PUBLIC'' consultation since July 6 this year, does not contain any anti-monopoly measures. In other words, the 3.38 million Hong Kong workers, who make up the vast majority of the 7.39 million people in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, find no trace of the so-called ''common wealth'' policy in the policy address.

As long as there is a lack of anti-monopoly, anti-hoarding measures, the so-called 'increasing supply' policy / planning will be reduced to a big speculation, to serve hoarding and real estate speculation (landlord economy) as an anti-policy. This is the deep-politics under the current three high policy in Hong Kong. This is easy to confirm the truth, look at the 'increase in supply' plan launched ''to reduce ultra-high property prices'' after the release of the 2021 policy address, in contrary to the official narrative and goal, property prices have gone up further, setting off an estimated 10 to 20 years of speculation mainly driven by the North. Even this is the long term rising property price tendency. The true political and economic purpose and meaning of the so-called 'vision' policy address have become apparent and now effective. It does not negate the three high policy that is being pursued at the moment. The property oligarchs themselves have frankly stated that the property prices have a rather optimistic upward trend. This is simply contrary to the 'official' purpose of 'increasing supply' (reducing super high property prices). Say one thing, do another. In fact, the answer/truth/policy intent can be seen everywhere. The public sees but does not wake up or is tied up by private financial interests to seal the deal. There is no more opposition to it......

A major victory for politically savvy Hong Kong developers: In her live speech in the policy address, Lam repeatedly mentioned 'a developer proposed...' in relation to her 'vision' for land and housing policy. Indeed, the policies in this report can be described as a policy address for real estate developers in the Special Administrative Region. As stated by the CEO of Midland Realty, Sammy Po, since these are long-term plans, property prices will continue to rise for at least 7 or 8 years or more (the so-called ''stable property prices''; the real estate oligarchy's own ''Stability and Prosperity''). Some disgruntled netizens also estimated the 3 highs would be 'unchanged' for 10 years, and it is not even out of the ordinary to say that the three high policy of ''high land price'', ''high property price'' and ''high rent'' will remain unchanged for 50 years (1997-2047). Moreover, the champion of this political game, excellent manipulator, Sun Hung Kai Properties, Vice President of the Real Estate Developers Association of Hong Kong, Kwok Kai-fai Adam, estimated on July 15 this year that the future development of new towns to ''move in'' will take about 17 years (2021-2038). According to Carrie Lam, it will be 2032 (''the next 10 years''). However, she later changed her words to ''20 years'' (2042). This means that Hong Kong's monopoly capital oligarchs have succeeded in winning their own ''stability and prosperity'' for a minimum of 7 years to a maximum of 20 years to maintain the three high policy in the future. There will be no anti-monopoly measures in that future period. (1)(2)

In addition to Mightycity1982's blockbuster-like rehash of the dubious the Northern Metropolis Development Strategy, what is most worrying is that in the next 7 to 20 years, the disadvantaged groups / poor minorities such as the grassroots residents of old buildings in old districts who originally enjoyed the traditional wet market culture and the indigenous residents of the New Territories who are just defending their ancient homes are feared to be reduced to the subject of ''short-term supplies''. ''Being forced to property auction'', ''being resold'' (for example, by 'AMENDING' the New Territories Ordinance with reference to the compulsory sale means of Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance). The situation of ''being resold'' (e.g., the New Territories Ordinance is going to be amended to make reference to the compulsory sale tactics of Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance, so that ancestral land could be sold off by some treacherous landlords who are simultaneously making profits from their own property business; Land (Compulsory Sale for Redevelopment) Ordinance is going to be further changed to lower the threshold for compulsory sale for developers; old buildings over 50 years old are forced to be sold off by property developers at a bargain price; and unlike the last amendment in 2010, it seems that the property oligarchy intends to let small developers to prey on the poor small owners) will happen again and again. "Don't worry, if the public rises up to protest against property developers, the National Security Law or Article 23 will be used to silence them!'' What? Are the law-abiding citizens who love Hong Kong and love the country, and just protest with their legitimate rights also will be seen as ''COCKROACHES''? How can this be? On this issue, the Hong Kong media, as the corporate media run by property advertisers, have not yet reported any opposition from the indigenous residents of the New Territories or small owners of old buildings in old districts. Instead, they have been replaced by the voices of the hegemonic real estate groups, such as the real estate association Wheelock Properties Ricky Wong Kwong Yiu or the Our Hong Kong Foundation's Ryan Yip Man Ki, representing their OWN interests. In this way, the vested interest groups unilaterally hijacked the ''public opinion'' through their legally 'bribed' media and ''think-tank'' NGOs, and caused the situation that grassroots residents of the old buildings and the indigenous residents of the New Territories to be forcibly ''AGREED'' at the level of media coverage. Even, the disadvantaged community class of ''being forced to auction'', 'being resold without consensus'' will be once again relegated to homelessness, in the city, it only means new demand for housing. For the real estate monopoly capital, this is also a two or three-fold victory. That is, forced auction brings not only direct profits, but also speculative opportunities, moreover a new demand to raise property prices. (3)(4)(5)

It revealed how vested interests in Hong Kong manipulate public opinion through KOLs: the main contents of "(5) Increasing Housing and Land Supply" and "(6) Building a Livable City" of this Policy Address had been gradually and deliberately revealed beforehand (after July 6, 2021). Does this mean that those policy 'visions' are the policies that the so-called ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) ''stars'' had been fighting for before this Policy Address was released? In fact, contrary to this sheer illusion, it was first released to the public by the vested interests who hijacking the statutory bodies (e.g., Sun Hung Kai Properties that occupies some key position in the URA) and the remaining reactionary officials from colonial British Hong Kong Government through the so-called ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) ''stars'' (KOLs; opinion leaders), ''influencers'' and media, in order to prepare and manipulate public opinion. That is why the policies they ''presented'' beforehand are exactly the same as the policies in the policy address of Lam. In fact, it is impossible to find a different policy opinion in the society. This means true and real manipulation. The so-called ''stars'' (KOLs; opinion leaders) of ''PRO-ESTABLISHMENT'' or ''CENTRIST'' (Third Side) '' are just soundboards for the vested interests not real policymakers at all. (6)(7)

It is a grim fact that the U.S. empire, the property oligarchy, and the remaining reactionary officials from British Hong Kong are successfully dominating Hong Kong's politics and economy in three-way collusion: Is the government the property developer? Is the property developer the Chief Executive? Is it the Chinese Communist Party of the Chinese Government or the Hong Kong ''Developer'' Party of the SAR Government that dominates the political economy of Hong Kong? This policy address is full of doubts. The series of political and economic events between July 6 and October 6, 2021 have confirmed that the so-called ''opposition'' camp was basically ''used'' in the past, except for the people/organisations ''hired'' by the oligarchs to play the role of political villains for the political games of the ruling class. However, due to the development of the situation, they had become political ''scapegoats.'' They still think that the United States is for democracy, freedom and human rights, so the United States is also against the real estate oligarchy of this city. Unfortunately, those who belonged to the so-called ''opposition'' in the past did not realise that the US empire and its intelligence agencies (including the so-called ''mainstream media'') have so far strategically maintained extremely conscious silence and apparent 'tactical' separation from the four major real estate oligarchs in Hong Kong (in addition to Sun Hung Kai, Cheung Kong, New World, Henderson Land Development, and sometimes plus Sino Group and Wheelock Properties - The Wharf) for decades. This is because they are primarily the core partners of the United States in Hong Kong.

The so-called ''opposition'' camp is not only a professional political ''villain'', but also a scapegoat to be used up and discarded in the end, furthermore their existence itself is a political device to eliminate the possibility of any real oppositional force independent of the oligarchy in this society. Moreover, the tripartite collusion between the U.S. empire, the real estate oligarchy, and the remnants of the reactionary British Hong Kong government has enjoyed a high degree of monopoly over statutory bodies (the restructuring of the bureau and Article 23 cannot affect them), so any changes to the electoral system of the Legislative Council and the Chief Executive cannot affect the collusion between the government and business. The so-called ''genuine universal suffrage'' is also useless on this crony capitalism. They also perfectly know that the so-called ''Hong Kong independence'' separatism is totally impossible. So what is the real purpose? At least the real political purpose of the three-way collusion is to maintain in the long term the policy of the three highs (the most liberal and exploitative greedy capitalism in the world) and the tripartite monopoly of Hong Kong's political and economic institutions. These are also a continuation of the vested interests of the British Hong Kong colonial era. The best example of the tripartite collusion is the statutory body of the URA, Au Yang, Evan Chi Chun. This representative not only represents the core interests of the United States (AmCham; the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong), but also the interests of Sun Hung Kai Properties (one of the property oligarchs). In the statutory bodies of the 'government', the U.S. empire, the real estate oligarchy, and the reactionary remnants of British Hong Kong have long been highly integrated and united through the occupation of multiple public offices. Therefore, in the past, the so-called ''opposition'' camp naively sought (?) to rely on the U.S. empire to fight real estate oligarchy was a serious contradiction and a fatal mistake. Sooner or later, the political situation will inevitably break down and metamorphose. As a result, they are now treated as scapegoats or political fertilisers by the property oligarchs and its 'PRO-ESTABLISHMENT' camp. In the end, the cross-industry monopoly capital groups became the political protagonist, the genuine master of Hong Kong. Because the major ''Hong Kong capital'' real estate developers (e.g., New World; Cheung Kong) are in fact also U.S. enterprises, the U.S. government has been protecting them as a matter of course. Thus, the fate of the so-called ''opposition'' camp is embodied in an extraordinarily twisted way by the intricate and highly political long-term strategies and techniques used by the three parties from various angles. The multiple personalities of this development are simply beyond the extremely monolithic and politically rigid minds of the mainland official media and its intelligence agencies. As long as the 'slogan' is correct, the 'posture' is correct, the 'color' is correct, the 'flag' is correct, and 'positioning' is correct, it is possible to move to the right position. If you have the right 'slogan', the right 'posture', the right 'color', the right 'flag', the right 'stance', the right 'official' narrative packaging, the right financial power, and the right Chinese nationality or Chinese ancestry, you should all be "LOVE THE COUNTRY AND LOVE HONG KONG" without thinking twice. Their 'united front', blind faith, blind support, blind protection and blind promotion of them. This is just like a bullfight that can be easily manipulated in a single line. Although for mainlanders it is world-class to criticise the ''dissidents'' in a group, but isn't it too superficial and lazy? Yet, unfortunately, this is often exactly what the public/netizens see, and they seriously lack one of the key political principles of Marxism that they themselves 'believe in', namely ''concrete research of concrete situations''. The lesson for mainlanders here is that this shortcoming and the bad habits that no longer work in the political sphere must be improved as soon as possible. In short, if this approval of the policy address is not transfer of benefits from corrupt CCP officials, then the Hong Kong property developers successfully have beaten the Chinese Communist Party in the politics of anti-monopoly and promotion of common wealth. (8)(9)(10)(11)

Corporatocracy: in other words, they knew precisely what the policy address was going to be long before it was 'published' because it was ''planned'' and ''drafted'' by themselves in statutory bodies they dominate. The so-called ''source'' is obviously one of them.

It seems that both domestic and foreign speculators smelled the true nature of the policy address, so on October 6, 2021, when property stocks were almost lopsided (-0.140%), Sun Hung Kai property stocks, whose family owns a lot of agricultural land in the New Territories and are also in control of the development decision makers in establishment, soared against the trend (+1.633%). On October 7, 2021, the four major developers' stocks surged when Carrie Lam gave a policy Q&A in the Legislative Council. In addition, Henderson Land Development, which also owns the largest amount of land in the New Territories, surged 6.4% in half a day; Sun Hung Kai Properties and New World Development rose 3.2% and 2.5%; Wharf Real Estate Investment Company rose 2.1%. The great speculation in the North triggered by the policy address has become an irreversible reality and future trend. Hong Kong citizens can only congratulate the most politically adept and outstanding Hong Kong real estate developers. It is an undeniable fact that Hong Kong real estate developers are highly skilled in politics. (12)(13)


Related News [sic]

  1. 行政長官2020年施政報告 (10/6/2021): 91. 視乎項目的研究結果及假設住用地積比率為4至6.5,持續推進的大型項目及策劃中的項目可望於中、長期提供約400 000至500 000個公、私營房屋單位。加上在《北部都會區發展策略》可供興建165 000至186 000個房屋單位的新開拓土地,2031-32年後的下一個十至十五年的供應可高達565 000至686 000個。92. 究竟香港欠缺多少土地,是一個不能迴避的問題,因為這個估計將主導香港的空間發展策略。發展局局長稍後將發表《香港2030+》的最終報告。更新了的研究適當反映了國家多項戰略性規劃為香港帶來的機遇、未來經濟及社會發展的需要,以及市民對居住環境的期望。最終的估算顯示,香港由2019至2048年的土地短缺約為3 000公頃。透過成功推動各項新發展區及填海項目,以及推展北部都會區,我們有信心會在中長期找到所欠缺的土地。 [...] (ii)釋放新界祖堂地:儘管沒有正式數字,但新界有不少祖堂地可供發展。在《施政報告》諮詢會上,我收到不少意見表示應修訂《新界條例》放寬出售祖堂地限制,並提供合理機制處理司理出缺問題。我同意可考慮修訂《新界條例》,在尊重祖堂傳統和保障祖堂成員合理權益的前提下,務實地處理目前祖堂地難以發展的困局。民政事務局局長將與新界鄉議局成立工作小組,聯同發展局和其他部門,在一年內完成檢討並制訂具體修訂建議;(iii)延伸補地價標準化至新界土地:由於巿場和業界對以「標準金額」為工廈重建補地價的先導計劃反應正面,至今已有四個重建項目接受以「標準金額」計算的補地價金額。發展局會把「標準金額」補價模式擴展至新發展區「加強版傳統新巿鎮發展模式」下的原址換地申請。發展局和地政總署會制訂計劃詳情,目標是明年首季推出。 [...] 104. 目前的市區更新策略是重建和復修並行,除由市建局發展商收購拆卸舊樓和進行重建外,本屆政府先後撥出合共超過190億元,資助舊樓業主保養和維修其物業。但面對樓宇急速老化,樓齡達五十年或以上的私人樓宇在過去十年由3 900幢急增至8 600幢,加上全港5 000多幢「三無大廈」日久失修的問題,我們須採取更有效的政策手段,加快重建更新步伐。105. 我們會從多方面入手。第一,按剛完成的「油旺地區規劃研究」,市建局會在油麻地和旺角,以創新、地區為本方式加快市區更新,包括在合適重建項目試行轉移地積比、街道整合等規劃手段。這些措施亦會適用於私人主導的重建項目,並在合適情況下在其他地區採用。第二,我會邀請市建局在荃灣和深水埗舊區開展同樣的地區規劃研究,以確定更新這兩個舊區的方案。第三,研究降低《土地(為重新發展而強制售賣)條例》下的強拍門檻,以加快舊樓重建。在過程中,發展局會充分考慮小業主利益、樓