Hong Kong Intelligence Report #87 香港應做中美衝突的化解之地

Updated: Oct 24

Open-source intelligence (OSINT)

FILE PHOTO: The flag of Ukraine and the symbol of victory © Envato

IMPORTANT 【重要】


香港最大的政治風險是香港政府此一特殊地方政府最能容易地將整個中國捲入直接的中美衝突之中。這就是個國安問題。

譬如,2019年3月15日到2021年1月7日為止持續的反修例風暴以及2022年10月5日起至10月20日暫時爆發的避風港風暴都是極佳例證。之後,主要由於2022年10月8日後的美國國務院的克制以及2022年10月15日被南華早報和俄羅斯衛星通訊社證實的香港上海滙豐銀行(HSBC)的政治仲裁(除了個人儲金及其他銀行服務支援外,禁止俄羅斯本港客戶的投資行為)而解除了新中美衝突的狀態了。本港俄羅斯人口不到1600人(2021年 LINK)。甚至,其對港貿易總額一直不成比率。進出口貿易排名前20名中也都沒有俄國,連0.5%,0.4%都不到(2021 年 香 港 的 主 要 貿 易 夥 伴 LINK)。因此,整體貿易數據明確顯示某個本地人氣賺手NGO(其運作模式如同IWJ的岩上模式)猜想的2021年/2022年俄國企業踴躍進入香港市場一事是站不住腳的,甚至,公司登記上的冠名為「俄羅斯-」的企業也仍然不一定是俄國的企業,因此那還是未經證實的猜想。記得,「台灣拉麵不是台灣的,而源自名古屋的」。


反正,整個避風港風暴的正面是,香港可以做中美衝突的化解之地,中美衝突的緩衝區/中間地帶,中美衝突的國際仲裁處。此次證明政治優秀的不是什麼港府官僚或所謂「政黨」(有限公司/社團)的任何「政客」(企業代表),而是英資匯豐銀行。那麼,什麼是負面? 即香港政府(一不小心?)隨時都能夠把整個中國捲入新的中美衝突的火焰之中。故此,香港本身絕不該淪為任何新的中美衝突的舞台。此次,美國的克制也是重要的因素。香港社會感謝美方的外交智慧和面對俄方謀略的克制。避風港風暴的結果目前是一半一半了。就整體而言,解除了敵對性。本港當下的主要危險只是疫情,是因為此社會在10月之內短時間內有效解除了新的中美衝突。這是主要歸功於政治優秀的匯豐銀行和戰略上克制的美國國務院。



諾德(NORD/北方)在2022年10月19日晚間(11點50分確認)已向海事處(2022年9月28日從海參威/Vladivostok向香港申請停泊時未經任何政治風險評估而批准的動作就直接把整個中國捲入新的中美衝突之中了)申請離港了。


然後,俄羅斯駐北京大使館在2022年10月20日中午12:00諾德預定開始離港前往南非後,下午15:46分位於北京的衛星通訊社發表了新任俄羅斯駐華特命全權大使伊戈爾·莫爾古洛夫已抵達北京開始工作的消息了。


這個發布時間明確顯示了俄方想要在避風港風暴與信任的新駐華大使任期之間劃清界線。好像事件在過渡期之間,新任大使不在場時發生似的。中方外交部在2022年10月21日的禮節性回應是接受這個敘事的。然後,2022年10月22日俄羅斯外交部警惕國民做海外旅遊的政治風險了。 這跟繼續讓諾德遊航全球的(高度政治)作為相矛盾的。


其實,諾德的船主北方鋼鐵的俄國最大寡頭阿列克謝·莫爾達紹夫(Alexey Mordashov)並不在船上。其香港停泊時的位置和航路都顯示了擺在香港的政治示威的目的顯著。然而,避免制裁風險時最安全的停泊地理所當然地是俄國。這是可以預測的,遭制裁的諾德一到任何國家地區,尤其是親俄國的國家時,就必定會引發東道主與美國的衝突的。


甚至,避風港風暴證實了由諾德帶來的政治損失是主要給在港俄羅斯人帶來的。即匯豐銀行揭示了在港俄羅斯人都已遭受美國/歐盟制裁一事。這也反過來否認了俄羅斯想把香港當作「避風港」是根本不成立的敘事。


The greatest political risk in Hong Kong is that the Hong Kong government, a special local government of China, can most easily involve the whole of China in a direct conflict with the United States. This is a national security issue. For example, the anti-extradition amendment bill storm from March 15, 2019 to January 7, 2021 and the temporary outbreak of the Russian safe heaven dispute from October 5 to October 20, 2022 are excellent examples. Afterwards, the new US-China conflict was lifted mainly due to the restraint of the US State Department after October 8, 2022 and the political arbitration of the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC) on October 15, 2022, confirmed by SCMP and Sputnik, which banned the investment behavior of Russian domestic customers except for personal savings and other banking services. The population of Russians in Hong Kong is less than 1600 (in 2021). Even its total trade with Hong Kong has been disproportionate. Russia is not even among the top 20 countries in terms of both import and export trade, not even 0.5% or 0.4% (Hong Kong's main trade partners in 2021). Therefore, the overall trade figures clearly show that the speculation of some popular local LIKE earner NGO (which operates like IWJ's Iwakami model) that more and more Russian companies entering the Hong Kong market in 2021/2022 is untenable, and even the companies registered under the name "Russia-" are still not necessarily Russian companies, so it is still an unsubstantiated speculation. Remember, "Taiwan- ramen is not from Taiwan, but from Nagoya".


Anyway, the positive side of the whole 'Russian safe haven' conflict is that Hong Kong can be a place of conflict resolution between the US and China, a buffer zone/middle ground for the conflict between the US and China, and an international arbitration centre for the conflict between the US and China. This time, it is not any Hong Kong government bureaucrat or any "politician" (corporate representative) of the so-called "political party" (limited company/association) that proves political excellence, but the British HSBC. So, what is the negative? That is, the Hong Kong government (accidentally?) At any time, it can drag the whole of China into the flames of a new Sino-American conflict. Therefore, Hong Kong itself should never be relegated to the stage of any new Sino-American conflict. This time, the restraint of the United States is also an important factor. The Hong Kong community is grateful to the U.S. for its diplomatic wisdom and restraint in the face of Russian machinations. The outcome of the conflict in the alleged Russian safe haven is now half and half, even. As a whole, hostility has been lifted. The main danger to Hong Kong now is only the epidemic because this community has effectively de-escalated the new Sino-American conflict in a short period of time in October 2022. This is largely due to the political excellence of the HSBC and the strategic restraint of the US State Department.


NORD (North) had applied to the Marine Department in the evening of October 19, 2022 (confirmed at 11:50 pm) to leave Hong Kong (the entire China was directly involved in the new Sino-US conflict without any political risk assessment when applying for berthing from Vladivostok to Hong Kong on September 28, 2022).


Then, at 12:00 noon on October 20, 2022, after the scheduled departure of NORD for Cape Town, South Africa, Sputnik in Beijing published at 15:46 pm that the new Russian Ambassador Igor Morgulov already had arrived in Beijing to start his work.


The timing of this release clearly shows that the Russian side wants to draw a clear line between the conflict in the alleged Russian safe haven and the trust in the term of the new ambassador to China. It is as if the incident took place in between the transitional period, when the new ambassador was not present. The Chinese Foreign Ministry's courtesy response on October 21, 2022, accepted this narrative. Then, on October 22, 2022, the Russian Foreign Ministry alerted its citizens to the political risks of overseas travel. This contradicts the (highly political) act of continuing NORD cruises around the world.


In fact, Alexey Mordashov, the largest Russian oligarch who chairs Severstal, the owner of the NORD ship, was not on board. The location and route of its Hong Kong mooring show the obvious purpose of the political demonstration placed in Hong Kong. However, the safest place to call to avoid the risk of sanctions is, of course, Russia. It is predictable that the arrival of a sanctioned Nord in any country, especially a pro-Russian one, will certainly trigger a conflict between the host and the United States.


Even the Russian safe heaven dispute proved that the political losses brought by NORD were mostly brought to the Russians in Hong Kong. That is, HSBC revealed that the Russians in Hong Kong have been subjected to US/EU sanctions. This, in turn, disproves that the Russian narrative of using Hong Kong as a "safe haven" is simply not true.


NEWS 【事實關係】


Russians lose access to some banking services in Hong Kong due to Western sanctions over Ukraine

  • HSBC sends out letter, seen by Post, saying lender unable to provide investment services to Russian nationals who are not European Union residents

  • While HKMA notes local banks can ignore unilateral sanctions imposed by foreign governments, legal experts say most lenders will not take the risk

LINK


香港南華早報援引消息人士的話報導,在西方國家對俄羅斯實施制裁的背景下,俄羅斯商人在香港辦理銀行業務時恐面臨困難。

俄羅斯衛星通訊社15日稱,香港上海滙豐銀行(HSBC)證實,已停止向在港的俄羅斯客戶提供投資服務。

受制裁影響,一名熟悉香港上海匯豐銀行業務的消息人士證實,該銀行就歐盟制裁導致暫停零售投資服務一事,已向多數在港的俄羅斯客戶發送信函。

南華早報表示,已取閱銀行發出的信件,信件已發送到在港大部份的俄羅斯客戶手上,聲稱不能為非歐盟居民的俄羅斯公民提供投資服務。消息指出,客戶的個人儲蓄帳戶或其他個人銀行服務不會受到影響。

LINK


9月13日,俄羅斯總統普京簽署命令,任命俄羅斯外交部副部長伊戈爾·莫爾古洛夫為新任駐華大使。


9月22日,俄羅斯駐華使館發佈視頻,莫爾古洛夫在視頻中表示,自己將於10月抵達北京,期待與大家盡快相見。莫爾古洛夫用流利的漢語表示,被任命為新的俄羅斯駐華大使,對他來說是一個很大的榮幸,也是很大的責任。


莫爾古洛夫稱,在當今複雜多變的國際形勢下,俄中兩國建立的新時代全面戰略協作夥伴關係具有特殊的意義。在新的崗位上,他願意同中國朋友們積極合作,為落實好俄中兩國元首所達成的重要共識,進一步推動兩國關係全面發展,加強俄中兩國人民之間的傳統友誼而努力。

上一任俄羅斯駐華大使安德烈·傑尼索夫於2013年5月上任,今年9月15日離開中國。

LINK


俄羅斯衛星通訊社北京10月21日電:中國外交部發言人汪文斌10月21日在例行記者會上表示,中方熱情歡迎俄新任駐華大使莫爾古洛夫來華履新。

LINK


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LINK


COMMENT 【評語】


香港最大政治風險總是港府隨時都能夠將整個中國捲入新的中美衝突之中。結果,解除避風港風暴此一新中美衝突的是進行政治調解的匯豐銀行和戰略上後來克制的美國國務院。這揭示了香港應該做中美衝突的化解之地,中美衝突的緩衝區/中間地帶,中美衝突的仲裁處,而非中美衝突的舞台。

The biggest political risk in Hong Kong is always the Hong Kong government's ability to drag the entire country into a new Sino-American conflict at any time. As a result, it was the HSBC, which conducted political mediation, and the U.S. State Department, which strategically restrained itself, that lifted this new U.S.-China conflict which named the 'Russian safe heaven' dispute. This reveals that Hong Kong should be a place of conflict resolution, a buffer zone/middle ground, and an arbiter of Sino-US conflicts, rather than a stage for Sino-US conflicts.




 


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