Updated: May 31
Open-source intelligence (OSINT)
Article 22 A person who organises, plans, commits or participates in any of the following acts by force or threat of force or other unlawful means with a view to subverting the State power shall be guilty of an offence:
(1) overthrowing or undermining the basic system of the People’s Republic of China established by the Constitution of the People’s Republic of China;
(2) overthrowing the body of central power of the People’s Republic of China or the body of power of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region;
(3) seriously interfering in, disrupting, or undermining the performance of duties and functions in accordance with the law by the body of central power of the People’s Republic of China or the body of power of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; or
(4) attacking or damaging the premises and facilities used by the body of power of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region to perform its duties and functions, rendering it incapable of performing its normal duties and functions.
A person who is a principal offender or a person who commits an offence of a grave nature shall be sentenced to life imprisonment or fixed-term imprisonment of not less than ten years; a person who actively participates in the offence shall be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of not less than three years but not more than ten years; and other participants shall be sentenced to fixed-term imprisonment of not more than three years, short-term detention or restriction. (1)
Arresting 55 opposition lawmakers and activists on January 6-7, 2021 for violation of article 22 of HKNSL was to pave a way for ''automated'' land-slide electoral victories of ''pro-establishment'' camp in the upcoming 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council election (September 5, 2021).
However the main issue still is that undemocratically terminating undesirable opposition figures and their entire camp has nothing to do with solving any actual social problems of Hong Kong at all. This is the most important thing among all of these HKNSL-related arrests of opposition stars since DQ4 on November 11, 2020 until present.
A political victory of one side on the other is not equal with a victory of its people.
Indeed, the mass purge of opposition from the establishment without any solution to actual social problems of Hong Kong caused the most dangerous situation for people of HKSAR because there is no obstacle for kleptocratic bureaucrats and pragmatic ruling class to approve any desirable legislative bills and put it into effect without any popular support and opposition against them.
It's the worst outcome for citizens of Hong Kong politically, culturally and economically.
In other words, mismanagement of HKNSL will prepare the future political turmoil - not a colour revolution - which is enough to nullify the remnant of democracy of Hong Kong, moreover it will further alienate its people from the establishment and central government. The ultimate end would be self-destruction of the establishment itself. What people really need is neither red, blue nor yellow political victories but it is only solution to their grave social problems. Therefore, current mismanagement of HKNSL is not only pointless and also suicidal for CCP (a.k.a. CPC).
In this case, cultivating Bauhinia Party (March 1, 2020-) as a partner of ''pro-establishment' camp (not alternative to the ''pro-establishment'' camp) is also totally meaningless and even groundless due to its fatal lack of grassroots base and popular support from its people. At such moments, they killed entire opposition figures socially, denied social access of democratically elected legislators (e.g. some of their bank accounts got blocked permanently by ''pro-establishment'' banks) and put more puppets in front of voters as ''politically correct'' candidates. On the contrary, it won't help the regime to gain hearts and trust of its people.
CPC only allowing voters' ''legitimate'' choice between the traditional ''pro-establishment'' camp and ultra ''pro-establishment'' camp -which symbolised by Bauhinia Party - is an undeniable violation of democracy of the people of Hong Kong. Bureaucratically created Stalinist pseudo-democracy is only an illusion. On this, positiveness of HKNSL turned into the opposite, self-destruction of CPC's own popular base in HK.
Who really wants this distorted course of HKNSL? Undoubtedly real anti-Communist camp wanted this. The political turmoil and emptiness of pseudo-democracy will only ultimately serve the vested interests of monopoly/ oligopoly capitalists of Hong Kong not CPC itself. CPC is perfectly misguided on this.
In general, the series of mass purge of political opponents by undemocratic measures is totally blind and pointless as long as it's done without solving any single social problem of Hong Kong citizens. What 'pro-establishment'camp did for the people of HK actually? None. Nothing. Only PR stunts. That's all. Killing all opposition figures won't automatically solve any single social problem of HKSAR. Mismanagement of HKNSL also caused snitching culture since the setup of HKNSL hotlines on November 5, 2020. HK is now in the most dangerous conditions unexpectedly.
Mingpao published the post-HKNSL era chronicle on December 30, 2020:
In this way, eliminating entire opposition camp of Hong Kong is a sheer political move and intention to make ''pro-establishment'' camp hopefully win the 2021 Hong Kong Legislative Council election however there will be no such Automisation of its optimistic effects on majority of Hong Kong voters as long as opposition camp (a.k.a. Pro-democracy camp) still can register enough candidates for their vast majority of grassroots voters.
In other words, total purge of entire opposition camp and prohibition of opposition candidates are decisive factors to undemocratically secure the automated victories of inept ''pro-establishment'' camp. This aristocratic ''pro-establishment'' camp always makes their political profit from others' conflict. In this case, a conflict between the central government of China and Hong Kong opposition parties.
Furthermore, PR stunts are the best replacement of controversial policies for cowardish ''pro-establishment'' parties who are merely cooperate representatives of their own private companies. I have to mention that Hong Kong does not have any law on political parties. Their relative laws, such as Societies Ordinance and Companies Ordinance to ambiguously regulate all kinds of NGOs and limited companies. In other words, there are no professional political parties in Hong Kong at all. Therefore, cooperate representatives of those limited companies are not firmly rooted in grassroots from the beginning. This is a sign of kleptocratic regime. Kleptocracy is the best term to explain the nature of the entire establishment of Hong Kong neoliberal bureaucracy. In which, even any ''independent'' commissions and ''independent'' reviews within the establishment are all in hands of representatives of monopolistic private companies.
Under the circumstances, the newly established political party Bauhinia Party is also not an exception. The chairman of the party Li Shan is a representative of SILK ROAD INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL HOLDING LIMITED not grassroots people of Hong Kong. A political party and candidate are always given to people from above in HK.
From P.O.V. of traditional ''pro-establishment'' camp or opposition camp, this party is meant to more blindly and mechanically support the establishment and central government than the traditional ''pro-establishment'' camp while so called ''pro-establishment'' camp is highly opportunistic and unreliable. Therefore, it won't be alternative to both ''pro-establishment'' and opposition camps. This ''ultra-pro-establishment'' party even can't replace the traditional ''pro-establishment'' camp because both of them are sheer bureaucratic devices to control the legislative council and politics of HK.
1. Opposition's Attempt to achieve +35 Majority in the Legislative Council was illegal?
Any opposition parties of the world want to achieve majority of their parliaments...It's not guilty.
2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries - 19 parties with 42 candidates attended; turnout 606,761 votes (13.62%) - during July 11 and 12, 2020 were illegal? At that time, 2020 Hong Kong Legislative Election was supposedly scheduled to be held on September 6, 2020 before July 31, 2020 when Carrie Lam invoked Emergency Regulations Ordinance to postpone the election to September 5, 2021 (now some source said that it would be further postponed more than a year according to Reuters' report on January 12, 2021). (3)
It means that 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries were preparation for the 2020 Hong Kong Legislative Election without any illegality proven at that time. Even no prosecution was made by deliberately linking an article ''真攬炒十步: 這是香港宿命'' ( ''Lam chau Ten Steps'' ) written and published by Benny Tai Yiu-ting via Apple Daily on April 28, 2020. No authorities actually persecuted attendees for violation of HKNSL on this before January 6, 2021.
No one definitely judged that was an actual crime committed by opposition against Hong Kong national security at that time. Their criminality was obviously fabricated later in the late December 2020 and January 2021 which resulted in the mass arrests of opposition attendees of 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries on January 6, 2021.
The point is that no-one even referred to the linkages between the op-ed ''真攬炒十步: 這是香港宿命'' and 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries. Furthermore, 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries were wisely held without any ''consensus'' and ''manifest'' among 19 opposition parties and their 42 candidates. Thus the latest allegation which based on the ''supposed'' linkages between the op-ed ''真攬炒十步: 這是香港宿命'' and 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries are pure fabrication which only aimed at criminalising electorate opponents.
Besides this, the primaries did not violate Prevention and Control of Disease ( Prohibition on Group Gathering) Regulation due to their own strict guidance and rules on this issue.
a. Global Times (July 12, 2020):
b. People's Daily（July 15, 2020):
c. Oriental Daily News (July 12, 2020):
d. The Stand News (July 15, 2020):
民主派初選於上周末結束，投票人數逾 60 萬；建制派民建聯今（15日）宣布派出 12 隊共 55 人參與 9 月立法會選舉；當中 7 隊出選地區直選；4 隊出選功能界別；以及一隊出選超級區議會；有 8 位現任立法會議員競逐連任，但蔣麗芸、劉國勳、柯創盛、梁志祥及黃定光等則不會參選。主席李慧琼呼籲市民投票支持「反攬炒，救香港」，並批評有人搞「政治攬炒」。
李慧琼呼籲市民投票支持，並批評有人搞「政治攬炒」，「想攬炒香港嘅人，佢哋下一步係想搞政治攬炒，透過攬炒議會、攞議會嘅控制權否決政府嘅財政預算案，甚至否決政府提出所有嘅法例…企圖癱瘓議會，佢哋咁樣做係犧牲一國兩制，犧牲香港人，亦係犧牲香港。」她又指此舉是為了逼中央出手，然後西方對中國和香港作全面制裁，以至經濟封鎖。對於民主派日前舉行的 35+ 初選, 李慧琼相信執法單位嚴正處理, 調查初選是否違法。(7)
(July 9, 2020):
初選主辦方今日（9日）在記者會公佈，將因應疫情問題作出 5 個措施，市民亦可先於家中完成投票程序，再回到投票站投票。
民主派初選主辦單位今日召開記者會，負責協調民主派初選的前立法會議員區諾軒表示，在政府收緊防疫措施下，主辦單位將因應疫情問題作出 5 個措施。首先，所有進入票站投票的市民都需配戴口罩。第二，主辦單位會確保所有票站的工作人員不需要進行家居檢疫或任何形式的檢疫。第三，在可行情況下，所有進入票站的人士都需測量體溫。第四，票站的工作人員需確保票站內的人數符合限聚令所規定的數目。第五，若票站內外排隊的人數多於限聚令所規定的數目，票站職員會要求市民先離開票站，稍後時間再回來投票。......
e. SCMP (July 22, 2020):
The results of the opposition primaries, part of a plan to secure over 35 seats in the Legislative Council, indicate that many Hongkongers are tired of traditional pan-democrats, who have perhaps been regarded as the villains on the road to democracy in Hong Kong.
I am not trying to start a generational battle, but it is crystal clear that people are more willing to put their faith in radical, unknown young localists who believe in “mutual destruction”, instead of the old approach advocated by experienced political celebrities.
In a polarised society and amid a chaotic political environment, all potential Legco candidates from the opposition camp seem to have no choice but to consider either mutual destruction or transformation. (9)
f. RTHK (July 13, 2020):
2. Benny Tai Yiu-ting is a ringleader? ''Lam chau Ten Steps'' linkage
The op-ed article ''真攬炒十步: 這是香港宿命'' ( ''Lam chau Ten Steps'' ) was neither mentioned at the time of publication nor during primaries. The imaginal linkage to primaries and ''regime change'' crimes were spitefully added after that. Moreover no one actually prosecuted attendees of primaries for violation of HKNSL at that time. There were only an allegation and demonisation against opposition without any proof.
The point is that Benny Tai Yiu-ting did not even mention 2020 Hong Kong pro-democracy primaries in the article.
a. Takungpao (July 17, 2020):